Tag: William Ruto

ODM’s Rift: Raila’s Legacy Up for Auction 

The death of Raila Odinga’s father, Oginga Odinga, in January 1994 cast a dark shadow on the future of the FORD-Kenya party. The party disintegrated due to irreconcilable differences on who would succeed Oginga Odinga. Raila Odinga led a faction that demanded elections to settle the succession issue, while Kijana Wamalwa led the camp that believed he was Oginga’s natural successor. Wamalwa was the party’s first vice chairperson. Raila was the deputy director of elections.

Raila seemed not convinced of Wamalwa’s leadership. It could be that Wamalwa circumstantially found himself in FORD-Kenya after losing favour in the Kenya African National Union (KANU). Wamalwa was largely perceived as not radical enough and could easily be compromised by KANU. 

FORD-Kenya substantially weakened following the exit of Raila and his allies to the National Development Party (NDP). Wamalwa attempted to strengthen the party, but it faltered into a regional party in parts of Western Kenya. Wamalwa’s death plunged the party into an endemic, generational leadership crisis. It is unlikely that the lion party will restore its dominance.

The Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) party is at a crossroads following Raila’s demise. History is bound to repeat itself. Like his father, Raila’s posthumous legacy will be defined by a disintegrated party. This is a fundamental weakness affecting political parties in Kenya when their dominant leader dies, retires, or party-hops. Kenyan political parties are institutionally weak. 

KANU weakened with Daniel Moi’s retirement as president. Its fortunes diminished further when its chairperson, Uhuru Kenyatta, decamped to The National Alliance (TNA) prior to the 2013 elections. The Democratic Party (DP) and the Party of National Unity (PNU) were rendered hopeless with Kibaki’s party hopping, retirement, and mugwumpiness. 

Chilling Crossroads 

After Raila’s death, I wrote an article reflecting on his legacy. I argued that Raila’s brother, Oburu Oginga, is unsuitable to lead ODM mainly due to two reasons. First, he is compromised by President Ruto’s desperate 2027 reelection ambitions. Second, he doesn’t represent the ODM of the future and is unlikely to strongly champion a futuristic pathway for the party’s long-term dominance.

In 1966, Zaire’s President Mobutu Sese Seko Kuku Ngbendu Wa Za Banga declared former Prime Minister Patrice Emery Lumumba a national hero. Five years earlier, in January 1961, Mobutu, along with Moise Tshombe, the Belgian state, and the US, coordinated the murder of Lumumba. Mobutu sought to consolidate power by posthumously rehabilitating Lumumba and neutralising his influence by declaring him a national hero. 

When Raila died, Ruto declared a state burial for him and also awarded him the CGH honour posthumously. Recently, he appointed Raila’s wife, Ida, Kenya’s ambassador and permanent representative to the United Nations Environmental Programme (UNEP). This mirrors Mobutu’s posthumous rehabilitation and neutralisation playbook. Such is the game of power. 

The most intriguing neutralisation of Raila’s support base was the hurried declaration of Oburu as ODM’s party leader, and embarrassingly so, before Raila was buried. As I wrote, Ruto’s invincible hand in Raila’s succession is visible. 

When a predator is hunting, it conveniently and cleverly picks out the weakerprey in a group. Some of ODM’s national leaders, such as Gladys Wanga, Abdulswamad Nassir, Simba Arati, John Mbadi, Hassan Joho, Opiyo Wandayi, and Junet Mohammed, among others, were picked out by Ruto. They were influenced to push for Oburu’s immediate takeover of the party when Raila died.

ODM’s rift mirrors the discord in the FORD movement in the early 1990s. Daniel Moi and KANU singled out the Kenneth Matiba faction and covertly financed it, leading to FORD’s disintegration. Ruto is manipulating ODM. A weak and divided ODM may enable Ruto’s party, the United Democratic Alliance (UDA), and its affiliates to make inroads into some of ODM’s strongholds. Ruto’s fear is a united ODM, which could easily field a presidential candidate independently or jointly with other opposition parties. 

Oburu is not a man of his own as far as ODM’s leadership is concerned. He is a lame duck, weak, easily compromised, and lacks the wherewithal to be a grand strategist. You may not expect so much from a grand old man who audaciously expressed his surprise upon his appointment as ODM’s acting party leader when Raila died. Oburu cannot run for president. His old age, lack of independent-mindedness, and almost non-existent charisma complicate his potential candidature. And these attributes were considered by Ruto when he covertly pushed for Oburu’s leadership of the party. Oburu is not a threat to Ruto’s ambitions, unlike if the party settled for more youthful and ambitious leaders to head it. 

Following the ouster of Edwin Sifuna as ODM’s Secretary General, 10-year-old tweets of the late controversial businessman Jacob Juma resurfaced. His opinions about Oburu may appear condescending, but it seems Juma knew a bit more about some of his political associates. Juma considered Oburu a liability to Raila’s presidential ambitions. And Juma could have been right.

Pragmatism is a key to winning and consolidating political power by forming alliances with adversaries. However, pragmatism loses its effectiveness when such alliances are established devoid of strategic thinking. The political alliance (handshake) between Raila Odinga and Uhuru Kenyatta in March 2018 was one of the former’s biggest political blunders, courtesy of Oburu. 

Uhuru was in dire need of political survival due to sustained opposition to his administration’s policies by Raila’s coalition. Raila needed political capital for the 2022 elections. Uhuru benefited more than Raila. And it was Oburu who was approached by Uhuru’s emissaries to convince Raila to create an amorphous political alliance. 

Oburu’s public speeches are structurally managed by external forces to endorse Ruto’s reelection. This is a lack of ambition, given ODM’s stature. Oburu has repeatedly said the party will neither field a presidential candidate nor contest for the deputy president role. This may have made Raila squirm and turn in his grave. 

ODM’s disintegration is also an outcome of Raila’s poor succession planning. One of Raila’s weaknesses was surrounding himself with opportunistic and vulturine allies, and failing to learn from history. Raila was a victim of the illusion of immortality. Whilst he was a champion of strong institutions of governance in Kenya, he failed to establish robust party structures that would outlive him.

The appointment of Arati, Nassir, and Vihiga’s Senator Godfrey Osotsi as deputy party leaders, and Wanga as chairperson, following the formation of the mongrel broad-based government, strengthened my conviction that Raila wasn’t willing to work with the competent. Raila had a notorious tolerance for working with people who were less competent in winning power. This partly explains his presidential election losses in 2013, 2017, and 2022. 

Before his death, ODM’s pro-Ruto faction schemed to remove Edwin Sifuna as the party’s Secretary General. These maneuvers intensified after Raila died. ODM’s pro-Ruto faction, while recklessly demanding Sifuna’s resignation, fails to appreciate the party’s history of high-profile decamps that significantly affected its performance in elections. ODM is a great example of hopelessly relying on nostalgia as a strategy. Retreating to a familiar yet serially failed strategy is grand incompetence. 

William Ruto abandoned ODM in favour of the United Republican Party (URP) following a breakdown in relations with the Odinga camp during the grand coalition government. Musalia Mudavadi also quit ODM for the United Democratic Front (UDF). These were two significant losses for ODM, with Mudavadi and Ruto then serving as the first and second ODM deputy party leaders. Raila and his henchmen were upbeat about winning the 2013 election, belittling the impact of the departures of Ruto and Mudavadi. 

History is uncannily repeating itself. Some repeats could be rebirth moments. Others could be ruthless, oblivion-sending spells. Some may turn out as mere perpetuation of the status quo. As far as ODM’s ideals and Raila’s legacy are concerned, post-Raila events could be oblivion-sending spells, particularly for the party itself. Dismissing Sifuna as the party’s Secretary General is a strategic mistake for ODM.

Raila had tremendous respect for Sifuna. He understood the party’s lack of talent in having a strong, intelligent, independent spokesperson like Sifuna. Even some of the party’s sycophants and long-standing stalwarts, such as John Mbadi, admit it. On February 11, Mbadi revealed that while they pushed for Wafula Buke to succeed Ababu Namwamba as the party’s Secretary General in 2015, Raila insisted on having Sifuna due to his strong personality. This stands out as one of Raila’s most remarkable personnel appointments. I am certain ODM would be weaker with Wafula Buke as the Secretary General. Revolutionaries are good foot soldiers, but are usually terrible at winning and retaining power. They tend to be delusional and idealistic. 

The loss of Raila and Sifuna has left ODM with talentless and short-sighted leadership. This will significantly accelerate the party’s unpopularity. Politics has no morals in Machiavelli’s view, and ODM has the right to dismiss Sifuna. However, competence is critical over emotionally-driven decision-making, and this is where ODM’s caricatured leadership gets it wrong. ODM’s leaders and supporters loyal to the Oburu faction erroneously believe that Raila’s massive support equates to the party’s popularity. They are overestimating themselves and ODM’s popularity. Raila was bigger than ODM. 

Sifuna’s interim successor illustrates the lack of serious talent in ODM, especially in the Oburu faction. Catherine Omanyo is incoherent, inept, and unambitious, traits that are adored by the party’s Oburu-allied leaders and supporters. Recall my earlier denunciation of Raila’s – and by extension – ODM’s fondness for weak leaders; Wanga, Arati, Nassir, Osotsi, and Oburu. Add Omanyo to this, and you have a team of audaciously incompetent and flamboyantly thoughtless party leadership. Disastrous. Oburu, perhaps, may have learnt this from Raila, or he advised Raila to constitute such a team of theatrical losers. It would be foolhardy to expect such weak leadership to strengthen ODM and position it to ambitiously contest the 2027 presidential election. 

ODM embarrassingly struggles to prove that nostalgia cannot be a strategy. Raila’s death was a big blow to the party’s fortunes. Oburu’s takeover is cataclysmic. And Sifuna’s ouster is preposterous. Raila’s death ought to have been a rejuvenation moment for ODM. But as earlier stated, ODM and Raila seem allergic to killer strategies that would strengthen the party. For Sifuna, this is a Damascus moment. He has high potential to be Kenya’s consequential politician for my generation. For ODM, it may find solace in KANU’s and FORD-Kenya’s fall from glory; this path is inevitable. For Raila, his legacy of a vibrant party is being annihilated by his blood brother, Oburu, but at least in his death. So unfortunate that he cannot witness ODM’s faltering fortunes. 

The writer, Sitati Wasilwa, writes and speaks about African geopolitical and governance-related issues. 

0

Raila Odinga: A Remembrance

My earliest memories of the enigmatic Raila Odinga were in the late 1990s, when I was in my formative schooling years. This was shortly after the 1997 election, which Daniel Moi and the Kenya African National Union (KANU) party allegedly won.

Moi rigged votes in his favour, and 1997 was an opportunity for him to demonstrate his mastery of the cutbacks on electoral systems. These nascent memories are courtesy of my father, who religiously purchased copies of the three major newspapers then – the Daily Nation, the Standard, and the People’s Daily.

Around that time, my curiosity was also elevated by access to copies of contemporary political publications, such as the Society Magazine and the Weekly Review. My dad had copies of these publications, some dating to the early 1990s when multiparty politics was reintroduced. I cannot clearly recall some key political events that followed shortly after the elections. This includes the 1998 cooperation between KANU and the National Development Party (NDP), then led by Raila Odinga.

By 2001, I had a keen interest in political events. I recollect the June 2001 appointment of Raila Odinga and other NDP MPs to the Cabinet by Moi. The newspapers and radio stations extensively broadcast Raila’s appointment as energy minister. Others who joined the Cabinet were Adhu Awiti (planning minister), Orwa Ojode (education assistant minister), and Peter Odoyo (foreign affairs assistant minister).

Months later, in March 2002, one of the most consequential political events occurred: the KANU-NDP merger. I was in boarding school at that time, but managed to get access to newspapers. A month or so later, when schools closed for the April holiday, I went through newspapers page by page at home to keep up with the merger. Luckily, the media was still covering the significance of the event. It was unclear at that time if Moi would leave the presidency or extend his term despite his insistence on retiring by sticking to the two-term presidential term limit. A formidable, broad-based opposition movement was uncertain then.

Moi’s endorsement of Uhuru Kenyatta seven months later, on October 14, 2002, shifted the momentum and paved the way for the eventual formation of a united opposition coalition against Moi and KANU. Since then, Raila remained a highly influential political player, a colossus of sorts, until his death.

Following the death of the legendary Franco Luambo Makiadi on October 12, 1989, Sam Mangwana described him as “a man who comes once in 100 years.” Mangwana inherently referred to Franco’s combination of musical brilliance, leadership, innovation, and lyrical power that was so rare in a career that spanned four decades. Franco also commanded a religious following, and his music is immortal.

Parallels can be drawn between Raila Odinga and Luambo Makiadi. First, their souls departed in October. Three days before Odinga’s death, I had passionately celebrated Luambo’s 36th death anniversary. Probably great men, revolutionaries, die in October. Thomas Sankara and Samora Machel died on October 15, 1987, and October 19, 1986, respectively. Second, the two lives of these legends offer lessons in longevity. They mastered the art of reinventing themselves amid fierce competition and changing times.

Third, they commanded a cult-like following in life and in death. There are charismatic people all over, but very few are uniquely charming. Fourth, Luambo and Odinga were pragmatists and built their admirable careers by building alliances. They worked with their rivals, a typically Machiavellian power strategy.

Raila Odinga had power arrangements with Daniel Moi, Mwai Kibaki, Uhuru Kenyatta, and William Ruto. To many, these were personal and opportunistic. But they embodied the pragmatic sense of acquiring power. This is not an endorsement of the formation of the broad-based government. The Grand Master of Congolese rhumba and African music, Luambo Makiadi, forged alliances with one of his biggest rivals, Tabu Ley Rochereau. This union of legends produced one of the best music compositions.

My respect for Mwai Kibaki waned following the events of the controversial 2007 elections. While I was a high school student, I was politically conscious. I wondered why Kibaki would mastermind vote rigging when Odinga had won. It was confusing. A day or two before Chief Justice Evan Gicheru swore in Kibaki, I went to bed ecstatic, fantasizing about a Raila Odinga presidency.

The headline of the Saturday Standard the following day affirmed my conviction of Raila Odinga winning the presidential election. My father had sent me to purchase a copy of the dailies to keep track of the election developments. Odinga had polled 3.34 million votes against Kibaki’s 2.45 million. Later that evening, a tide swept, and votes apparently streamed in from the so-called Kibaki strongholds, including the infamous Tharaka Nithi.

Tensions were visibly high at the national tallying centre at the KICC. Odinga looked deeply frustrated with his lieutenants, James Orengo, William Ruto, et al., demanding fairness from the then chairperson of the Electoral Commission of Kenya, Samuel Kivuitu. Anyway, an Odinga presidency never materialised. I could not fathom why Odinga would let it go, having run one of the most remarkable and consequential political campaigns in Kenya’s political history.

In his autobiography, The Flame of Freedom, and multiple interviews, Odinga maintains that he chose to form the grand coalition government in 2008 for the sake of national unity. This was despite objections by hardliners in the ODM negotiating team at the Serena Hotel who wanted nothing less than Kibaki conceding or the formation of a transitional government leading to elections in a few months.

Odinga reiterated the need for national unity following his political reconciliation with Uhuru Kenyatta in March 2018 and William Ruto in 2024. I am convinced the 2008 Odinga was fundamentally different from the one in 2018 and 2024, and perhaps the 1998 one.

The 2008 Odinga was much more concerned about national unity, given the widespread post-election violence. But the Odinga of 1998, 2018, and 2024 was an opportunistic one who aimed at securing his political and economic interests. The 1998 KANU-NDP cooperation was a strategic maneuver by Odinga to position himself as a potential successor to Daniel Moi in 2002. Odinga played this card, having in mind a possible divided opposition and the fact that no high-ranking KANU leaders had experience in running in presidential elections.

It would be out of order to claim he pushed for his economic interests to secure the purchase of the Kisumu molasses factory in light of the political cooperation with KANU. A significant number of people claim that the land where the factory was located was illegally acquired by Spectre International, the Odinga family business. These allegations are traced to the 2003 Ndung’u Land Commission Report. According to the report, “direct allocation of alienated government land to the company (Spectre International) by the commissioner of lands was illegal.”

A few interesting facts! The Ndung’u Commission was established following a report by a task force Odinga formed in 2003, when he was the minister for roads, public works, and housing. The aim was to assess the status of government property and housing amid deeply entrenched corruption. Second, the government acquired the molasses factory land in 1982, but payments for the land were not made in full. Bidding for the factory gained momentum in the mid-1990s.

Foul play cannot be ruled out in the findings of the Ndung’u Report on Spectre’s illegal acquisition of the land. Lots of political witch-hunting was at play by mid-2003, a few months after the formation of the NARC administration. Two camps had emerged over the failure to implement the infamous power-sharing Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) signed by the Kibaki-led National Alliance of Kenya (NAK) and the Raila-led Liberal Democratic Party (LDP). These were the principal units that formed NARC.

Were it not for a court order sought by Spectre International in January 2006, perhaps the company, Odinga, and others would have been prosecuted. Kibaki’s acolytes were not leaving anything to chance, especially after the embarrassing defeat in the August 2005 constitutional referendum. It was evident by then that Odinga would be a force to reckon with in the 2007 elections.

Political and economic interests motivated the extra-constitutional power arrangements of 2018 and 2024. The 2018 one could have targeted cutting off William Ruto from Kenyatta and weakening him in the run-up to the 2017 election. It never worked with Ruto playing victim. The 2024 arrangement occurred when Ruto was extremely desperate following a wave of youth-led protests. The fact that this power deal was followed by the impeachment of then Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua raises suspicions.

It is difficult to figure out the specific political goal Odinga was pursuing. Was he strategically positioning ODM to be a principal coalition partner with UDA in 2027? Or was he just playing the good guy card to cement his status as a statesman? On both occasions, the commercial interests of the Odinga family were on the table.

I embraced Odinga’s ideologies in the lead-up to the 2007 election, given the manner in which he packaged his campaign messaging. He built his manifesto on infrastructure as the key to transforming Kenya’s socioeconomic fortunes. Little credit is given to Raila Odinga for being the brainchild of some notable physical infrastructure projects. The Thika Superhighway, the LAPSETT corridor project, and multiple by-passes in Nairobi were conceptualised by Odinga. To me, he stands out as the most progressive roads minister in Kenya’s history.

At the onset of the NARC administration, Odinga, with gusto, oversaw the demolition of structures built on road reserves. He attempted to inject some sanity as Kenya was transitioning from an irredeemably corrupt Moi administration. The construction of the Raila Odinga Way, previously known as Mbagathi Way, highlights his legacy and embodies his high value for posterity. He was on record many times, noting that most of his decisions are based on posterity.

The Raila Odinga Way was initiated during his time as roads minister, and it was constructed from 2005 to 2007. It was a pilot project to assess the viability of concrete road technology in the country. The road is still in shape almost two decades later.

One has to admire Odinga for his resilience, willpower, and intellect. Few can survive eight years of detention, considering the physical and psychological torture victims are subjected to. It is even more agonizing to imagine Odinga’s mum and brother died and got buried while he was in detention. Odinga endured the loss of his four siblings and eldest son but chose to fight for a cause larger than his life. He lost the presidential election multiple times but stayed on course.

Odinga’s resilience resonates with Viktor Frankl’s thoughts in his book, Man’s Search for Meaning. This excerpt from the book’s preface highlights Frankl’s view on finding purpose in life even during moments of suffering:

“…The great task for any person is to find meaning in his or her life: in work (doing something significant), in love (caring for another person), and in courage in difficult times…Suffering in and of itself is meaningless; we give our suffering meaning by the way in which we respond to it…”

His autobiography, The Flame of Freedom, remains one of my favourite memoirs, especially in the Kenyan context. It is relatively rich in history. Most Kenyan autobiographies are quite shallow and read more like eulogies than texts meant to inspire thinking, belief, and action.

Raila also authored Quest for Nationhood – Roadmap to Our Future. As revealed by one of his sisters on the burial day, he was working on another book on Pan-Africanism. He had also instructed Anyang’ Nyong’o to work on a paper on nationhood and tribalism just before his demise.

I highly value people who have been in the limelight to pen down the intrigues of their lives, motivations, purpose, and achievements. In one of my blog posts, I stated the need for such figures to give us more books, but meaningful ones. I have read memoirs that left me cursing the authors for presenting underwhelming information despite having been in the corridors of power.

His father’s, Not Yet Uhuru, is also a remarkable autobiography. Raila Odinga stands out among the few Kenyan politicians who found meaning in writing books, again for posterity purposes. Apart from Anyang’ Nyong’o, it is difficult to easily identify politicians who are intellectually grounded. And I do not imply academic qualifications…We glorify the practice of acquiring academic certificates instead of valuing intellectualism. There is a high deficit of thinkers in Kenya.

It is a generational tragedy that politicians annoyingly talk of Kenya as the next Singapore, yet their woeful intellects tell of a limited understanding of the formidable thinker Lee Kuan Yew was. I am hopeless for a better Kenya.

Odinga was overall well-informed, not just about history, but about many issues. His parliamentary contributions and Cabinet briefings demonstrated a man who highly valued knowledge.

The most consequential deaths generally lead to destructive institutional episodes, largely due to internal contradictions. The ODM party will wane, and the political careers of Odinga’s hangers-on will die with his demise. Despite his intellect and strong belief in institutions, Odinga did not build ODM for posterity. He failed to overcome the Kenyan political party culture, where parties are built around personalities and not effective institutional elements.

I cannot blame him for this. This is a culture primarily associated with the political parties that emerged with the reintroduction of multiparty politics. However, this goes further back to the colonial era. Perhaps KANU, after the death of Jomo Kenyatta, escaped this. His successor, Moi, was deeply entrenched in the system, and an inherent succession plan was already in place before his death.

FORD-Kenya weakened significantly with Oginga Odinga’s death in 1994. Tragedy struck the party the second time within a decade in August 2003 with the death of Vice President Kijana Wamalwa. The party sank deeper. Currently, its leaders are proud to have it as the most popular party among the Bukusu people in Bungoma and Trans-Nzoia counties.

KANU lost its allure with Daniel Moi’s exit from the presidency. Moi personalized KANU after Jomo’s death. One of the primary causes was the 1982 coup attempt that prompted him to consolidate power and resulted in the legal ban of other parties.

Multiple factions within ODM will eventually split and weaken it. Part of the leadership led by the Secretary General, Edwin Sifuna, opposes the broad-based government and vouches for the party to field a presidential candidate in 2027. Others strongly support the broad-based government and vow to support Ruto’s reelection.

Appointing Raila’s brother, Oburu Oginga, as the acting party leader may have been motivated by paranoia and interests. Large political parties in Kenya are extensively family enterprises. This, plus other factors, will hasten the party’s weakening.

ODM has been on a gradual downward trajectory in the past decade. This is supported by its performance in the 2013, 2017, and 2022 elections, apart from presidential polls. Its agreement with UDA/KKA to form the broad-based government impacted it significantly. Weeks ago, its SG Sifuna raised concerns about the fading desire by aspirants to run for elections on ODM.

Oburu lacks the national appeal that Raila enjoyed. I am careful not to refer to Oburu as weak – and I do not mean physically – but he does not inspire confidence. There are leaders whose supporters can go to war for. At least not Oburu.

Raila’s eldest brother is safeguarding the interests of ODM ‘conservatives.’ Linked to this are Ruto’s interests and machinations to win ODM’s support for his unassured reelection. Ruto might have influenced the selection of Oburu as the acting party leader. Ruto’s political career could be a victim of Raila’s death. A fractured ODM and a united opposition spell doom for him.

I have keenly listened to Oburu’s speeches after assuming the party leader’s role of ODM. Fundamentally, it’s double-speak. His speeches carry a reconciliatory tone. But the power arrangement between ODM and UDA/KKA is intact. Oburu was a staunch supporter of this extra-constitutional arrangement when Raila was alive. (I will dedicate the next few weeks to digging deeper and understanding Oburu’s worldview and leadership. But the November 2nd, 2025, Sunday Nation’s Weekly Review was a good starting point. His autobiography is on my bucket list).

In September 2024, Raila Odinga, with the NEC’s endorsement, settled on Anyang’ Nyong’o as the party’s acting leader. This was at the onset of Odinga’s campaigns for the chairperson’s position of the African Union Commission (AUC).

Nyong’o is a near ideological twin to Raila and would make a better party leader than Oburu ideologically. But the two gentlemen are aging. They may resonate with the generational shift in Kenyan politics. Even so, Oburu should facilitate a transition to relatively youthful leadership for posterity.

For ODM to remain relevant and possibly become vibrant, it must embrace youthful leadership. It should brand itself as the political party of the present and the future. The present and the future of Kenya oscillate on political and economic solutions that address the plight of the youth.

The three ODM deputy party leaders are not visionaries. The immediate former two deputy party leaders who were appointed as Cabinet Secretaries in the broad-based government are not good enough to lead ODM. Ideally, an ODM of the future should be built around Sifuna’s talents. He stands out as a visionary and the most qualified to lead the party.

I will forever miss Raila Odinga. His legacy for pro-democratic reforms is solid. His intellect is admirable. His decision-making for posterity is cherished. It is unbelievable that he died. Looks like a dream!

May his soul rest in eternal peace!

The writer, Sitati Wasilwa, is a political risk analyst and strategist. His writings are independent of his institutional affiliations.

0

Calls for National Dialogue Opportunistic and Baseless

Former Prime Minister Raila Odinga often struggles to read the room. On July 7, 2025, his lethargic speech, commemorating the 35th anniversary of Saba Saba Day, affirms this. Two or three aspects of the speech intrigued me.

First, Odinga’s call for a national dialogue, which he referred to as an inclusive intergenerational national conclave. Second, a national referendum to vote on the outcomes of the dialogue. Third, a demand for police reforms and an end to police brutality.

Odinga is deluded and demonstrates his religious obsession through such dialogues, which he has historically capitalized on to gain government power.

The Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) that led to the formation of the incompetent broad-based government stipulates a 10-point agenda to improve Kenya’s governance. This agenda is an outcome of a dialogue that involved long-time politicians. It was an outcome of President William Ruto’s political desperation and Odinga’s opportunistic nature in the aftermath of the June 25, 2024, mass protests.

Kenya would not be on a race to the bottomless pit had the Ruto administration implemented its promises after the 2022 elections and 2024 protests. Ruto attempted to dialogue with the people, a rare show of humility from him. But to him, these were brilliant moments to hoodwink the public. After all, his promises to address high taxation, an odious public debt, cut wastage of public resources, and completely reshuffle the presidential appointees, among others, have never been implemented. Would you want to dialogue with people who feel shortchanged and lied to?

Odinga should instead lead his party, ODM, to resign from the mongrel broad-based government. It is easier for him to also consider calling Ruto and insisting on the implementation of the 10-point agenda.

The former prime minister has perfected Law 25 of the 48 Laws of Power by recreating himself each time his relevance appears to hit a dead end. While he has mastered the Machiavellian script of pursuing power, I am afraid his moves on the national political chessboard may not be effective this time.

Anything great or mighty, including powerful personalities and institutions that are sometimes perceived as immortal, has its end. Greatness is a factor of time, and time changes, and people move on.  History is replete with such examples.

Most of these mighty entities usually collapse because of internal contradictions, greed, arrogance, overestimation of their outdated strategies/tactics, and not heeding the evolving demands of time. The architects of the broad-based government are facing a generation of young Kenyans who are relatively well-exposed, educated, and courageous. They are also facing a public that is delusional and hopeless of vague promises.

National dialogues have barely benefited the people in Kenya, given the multiple times we’ve had them. Interestingly enough, the first point of the 10-point agenda is the full implementation of the NADCO report. NADCO is an abbreviation for National Dialogue Committee, a team that comprised members of the ruling coalition and the opposition to address political and economic governance.

NADCO came a few years after another amorphous national dialogue initiative: the Building Bridges Initiative (BBI). While the courts quashed the BBI-driven attempts for a referendum, Odinga largely achieved his aim of enjoying political power without responsibility.

From a political strategy view, the BBI was Uhuru Kenyatta’s stroke to exercise his powers by limiting sabotage by his then-deputy, Ruto. But it was a miscalculation by Odinga. Ruto successfully linked Odinga with the failures of an administration he was the second in command. And Odinga’s lazy and disorganised presidential election campaigns did not remedy the situation.

Our Constitution is an outcome of a political dialogue held after Mwai Kibaki rigged the votes in the 2007 elections. This is perhaps one of the diligent results from numerous dialogues in the last six decades. But if we consider the bigger picture, the people, especially victims of the post-election violence, rarely benefited from the dialogue.

The political class deliberately objected to the implementation of the report by the Truth, Justice, and Reconciliation Commission (TJRC). With hindsight, it was far-fetched to entrust a compromised and non-progressive political class to implement the TJRC’s recommendations.

The TJRC submitted its report to Uhuru Kenyatta in May 2013. Uhuru and Ruto were then facing charges of crimes against humanity at the International Criminal Court. Furthermore, these are politicians whose political and biological roots are entangled in historical injustices committed by the Jomo Kenyatta, Moi, and Kibaki regimes. This indicates why it is hard to expect tangible progress from establishment politicians.

A good example of another dialogue is the Ndung’u Land Commission in 2003. Unfortunately, but not shockingly, its report has never been implemented. Again, expect nothing from a political class that is a purveyor of corruption.

National dialogues are meaningless. These are resource-wasting ventures by the establishment. Why should we have a national dialogue when we have an administration that is tone-deaf, arrogant, and casts itself as an enemy of the people? Dialogue with an administration obsessed with killing, maiming, and abducting people without shame? Dialogue with an administration that is incompetent and good at nothing?

Constitutionalism and meritocracy are the primary pillars to transform Kenya. If the current and future administrations stick to the Constitution, corruption, unwarranted high public debt, high taxation, unaffordable education, poor housing, and high-cost healthcare will be eradicated. Our Constitution is the answer to all our governance challenges and not caricatured dialogues.

The writer, Sitati Wasilwa, speaks and writes on political and economic governance. Contact: sitatiwasilwa.sw@gmail.com.

0

June 25: Reflections on an Unfinished People’s Revolution

June 25, 2024, shaped Kenya’s present and future. I refer to it as Kenya’s great political reset. The aftermath of the events of this date portrays a political class that is not ready for change. The top brass of the Kenya Kwanza administration remains defiantly arrogant, corrupt, dismissive, but still cannot implement measures to improve the lives of Kenyans.

This bunch of gluttonous politicians and wheeler-dealers fails to recognise its failures and acknowledge the need for a holistic, generational change. We certainly need to do better as a country, 62 years after independence.

But independence has all along been a charade. Apart from powerful neocolonial forces, the Kenyan political establishment cherishes colonial attitudes and institutions. Our political class is worse than the British colonialists. Sometimes I think of how the world could have been a terrible place had Kenyans colonised several territories. I mean, the Kenyan political establishment lacks the passion to put in place systems that work.

I do not mean to excuse European colonialism. It was unjustified. Since it happened, comparisons and contrasts can be drawn. In 2023, I read a controversial opinion article titled “What is Uganda’s Problem?” in the Daily Monitor newspaper. The writer, Timothy Kalyegira, argues that colonialists established functional institutions and had a good work ethic. He chides post-colonial governments in Uganda, Kenya, and Tanzania for not matching the colonialists’ work ethic and institutions.

Fundamentally, I agree with Kalyegira’s thoughts in the article. There is no justification for the existence of broken systems that deprive citizens high quality public goods and services.

One could argue that the post-colonial politicians in the region inherited extractive political and economic institutions. Sounds fine. But they loudly pontificate development blueprints and slogans, intentionally bypassing the urgency for institutional reforms.

The William Ruto administration, at some point, was obsessed with transforming Kenya into the Singapore of Africa. Never mind that this hallucinatory obsession is aimed at justifying the warped housing levy and affordable housing policy.

Economic history indicates that Kenya and Singapore were almost at par on several economic growth and development indicators in the 1960s and 1970s. For instance, Kenya’s GDP was USD 926.6 million, while Singapore’s was USD 917.2 million in 1963. Presently, Kenya and Singapore are worlds apart.

Where did we lose the plot? In some of my articles, I have referenced Professor Anyang’ Nyong’o’s book, “A Leap Into the Future,” detailing answers to this question. Nyong’o highlights an encounter with Singapore’s founding father, Lee Kuan Yew, in the 1990s. Kuan Yew referred to the assassination of Tom Mboya as having dragged Kenya backward when Singapore chose to go forward.

He may have symbolically brought up Mboya’s assassination. The bigger picture is the dismissal of the intentional nation-building and institutional development through meritocracy. Kenya’s political establishment passionately hates meritocracy.

While Kuan Yew’s Singapore identified Meritocracy, Pragmatism, and Honesty (MPH) as the pathway for socioeconomic development, Kenya’s political class religiously embraced corruption, lack of merit, and despised work ethic. Kenya appears to be worsening.

The Ethics and Anti-Corruption Commission (EACC) remains a moribund institution. Its notable achievements are name changes. The amendment of the Prevention of Corruption Act in 1997 paved the way for the establishment of the Kenya Anti-Corruption Authority. This was an outcome of key reforms undertaken by the Daniel Moi administration to restore foreign aid. The Kenya Anti-Corruption Commission was established in 2003, and later the EACC in 2011.

No substantial prosecutions of high-profile politicians and wheeler-dealers have occurred in the last 30 years. Corruption is rampant under the current administration, and this was one of the key issues raised by Kenyans in 2024 during the demonstrations. Nothing has changed, no lessons learnt.

The Kenya Kwanza regime believes you can overtax a country to prosperity. We have the habit of blaming the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) for imposing policies that lead to inequality. Historically, there is solid evidence linking the neoliberal Washington Consensus policies to unequal development in Africa.

But our governments ought to be blamed more. Kenya lacks leaders, visionaries, and thinkers at the centre of power. Meaningful economic development cannot be achieved without dedicated intellectualism in the Executive and Legislature.

Kenya is a victim of the Structural Adjustment Policies (SAPs) championed by the Bretton Woods institutions. The victimhood dates back to the 1990s. The education and health sectors were severely affected by SAPs. We find ourselves in similar situations where massive spending cuts threaten access to affordable education and healthcare. Any country with visionary leaders would not be experiencing this.

The future of Kenya is gloomy. We are back in the times when education, especially higher education, was a privilege of those who could afford to pay fees. Fundraisers for hospital bills have increased, while the regime insists that the Social Health Insurance Fund (SHIF) is working efficiently. We must not forget KES 104 billion was spent on the transition from the National Hospital Insurance Fund (NHIF) to SHIF.

Overtaxation cannot lead to socioeconomic prosperity. Let’s forget about socioeconomic prosperity for now; you cannot overtax economic agents strained by a high cost of living and unemployment. The June 25, 2024, protests were a platform for the citizens to remind the incompetent Kenya Kwanza regime about the folliness of overtaxation.

We are constantly reminded by the establishment that we must pay taxes to achieve economic independence. They also tell us that we are not overtaxed, unlike other countries. This dangerous thinking always draws comparisons between Kenya and developed economies and not other peer countries. Kenyans may not have a problem with high taxes, provided that these efforts are reciprocated with the provision of affordable and high quality public goods and services.

Vision 2030, like many other wonderfully drafted socioeconomic Sessional Papers, will never be attained in totality. This blueprint envisioned the manufacturing sector as a key driver for transforming Kenya into a globally competitive, middle-income economy. It targeted the manufacturing sector to contribute 20% to the economy’s GDP and create one million jobs yearly. This remains a pipe dream.

Policymakers have shown little concern that high taxes and an unpredictable tax regime are strangling the manufacturing sector. Yet, they go around the country on the rooftops of top-of-the-range cars like snake oil merchants, showing little concern for the stagnated growth of the sector.

Let’s get it right; you cannot cheat yourself into robust socioeconomic development. Failing to formulate relevant policies to spur the manufacturing sector means we will barely create meaningful and sustainable jobs in Kenya. This also applies to other African countries.

Nearly all developed and fast-developing economies established robust manufacturing sectors. Ours has hardly contributed more than 10% to the GDP in the last 10 years. The frustrations of Kenyans, particularly the youth, arise from unemployment and underemployment. Yet, the regime’s honchos overburden these vulnerable humans with taxes without creating sustainable jobs.

It is laughable that the Ruto administration talks big about exporting labour as a job creation mechanism. This is hogwash. In addition, we have seen this regime countless times purporting to facilitate the creation of jobs through the digital economy. Not sure why this barely comes up nowadays.

This rogue regime does not understand the dignity of decent jobs. It has no comprehension of the dangers of idle, educated youth. Again, you cannot cheat your way into development. There are no miracles and shortcuts to attaining meaningful socioeconomic development.

What is the essence of this irredeemable obsession with increasing taxes yearly? Conventional economic thinking indicates that a country struggling with a huge public debt considers the following economic policies: spending cuts, tax increases, structural reforms, investing in infrastructure, and debt restructuring and forgiveness.

In the aftermath of the June 25, 2024, youth-led protests, the Ruto administration committed to auditing the public debt. Nothing tangible has been heard or seen since. Borrowing is on an upward trajectory. Tax increases are prevalent. The political class ensured that such increases are masked in a jargon-heavy and technical 2025/26 Budget Policy Statement (BPS) and 2025 Finance Bill.

Spending cuts are skewed. In the 2025/26 BPS, the security budget was increased by 17%, while the education budget was reduced by 18%. State House and state lodges are under constant construction and renovation. How urgent are these works? It is a problem to have a regime allocating over KES 11 billion for renovating and constructing buildings that do not add value to Kenyans. These are conduits for siphoning public resources. The Executive and Parliament waste so much money traveling within and out of the country to attend useless events.

The increase in the security budget is not surprising. This regime is paranoid and hellbent on creating a totalitarian state. The paranoia emanated from last year’s protests. The regime’s leadership never believed organic protests could break out. State-sanctioned abductions, enforced disappearances, extra-judicial killings, and threats are outcomes of a cowardly political leadership not ready to embrace accountability.

Kenya’s political establishment has another bad obsession: the need to control social media. On one hand, the political class dismisses social media government criticism. On the other hand, it craves controlling social media to limit free speech. Part of the increase in the security budget is the allocation of KES 150 million to the Directorate of Criminal Investigations (DCI) to purchase a system to track social media. This worries me a lot. It means more abductions, disappearances, and extra-judicial killings. But the more these issues persist, the more defiant the people become.

Ruto and his cabal are poor students of history. And the president is on record dismissing history. They should take time and study regime changes caused by popular uprisings. Burkina Faso in 2014, Sudan in 2019, Egypt in 2011, and Czechoslovakia in 1989, among others.

Commonsensically, you’d expect the National Intelligence Service (NIS) to consider such basic epochs. But the NIS is highly politicised under the Kenya Kwanza regime. The previous director generals of the NIS were more professional and polished. At the moment, this institution is a circus. This is the first time its director general has appeared in public forums multiple times, not to contribute anything meaningful to enhance nation-building, but to threaten the regime’s dissidents and call for the regulation of social media.

June 25, 2024, was a major political reset in Kenya’s history. It forced an unpopular president to reach out to a once-popular opposition leader and former Prime Minister Raila Odinga for political survival. This formally resulted in the formation of the so-called broad-based government.

William Ruto and his people do not get it; incorporating Odinga in the government is not equal to addressing the concerns of Kenyans. This mongrel government is a similar government formation Ruto vehemently criticised between 2018 and 2022, when Odinga and then-President Uhuru Kenyatta reached an MoU to form an inclusive government.

Such government arrangements are unconstitutional. With last year’s great political reset, we have demystified the cult of Odinga. The people no longer need him to call for protests. And he disgraced his pro-democracy credentials when he opted to support a rogue, incompetent regime. The majority of young people of my generation and the generations that come after will remember Odinga as a scheming, calculative opportunist, and not a champion for democracy.

Will the victims and their families get justice from the state following the attack on citizens on and after June 25, 2024? This is unlikely. But the arc of justice is long and swings slowly. However long it takes, justice will be served once this regime is voted out of power.

The writer, Sitati Wasilwa, speaks and writes on politics, governance, political economy, public policy, geopolitics, and armed conflict. Contact sitatiwasilwa.sw@gmail.com.

0

A Post-Ruto Kenya is Taking Shape, and Quite Fast!

Kenya under President William Ruto is a blueprint of how leaders fail and fail fast. Transformational leadership is not a cup of tea for any Tom, Dick, or Harry, nor is it for any Mary, Juliet, or Angela. Ruto has chosen to literally fail. His two-year old administration has demystified the genius and politically smart tags associated with him for a long time.

Ruto severally coveted and referenced Kibakinomics during the election campaigns and shortly after taking office. The late President Mwai Kibaki attempted to transform Kenya, but he largely failed. Corruption, tribalism, and vote rigging flourished under his watch. And the fact that a significant number of Kenyans identify Kibaki with some semblance of transformation indicates our low leadership standards as a country. Anyway, Ruto’s reference to Kibakinomics was motivated by his desire to revamp the Kenyan economy in light of the abysmal trajectory engineered by the UhuRuto administration.

Well, the UhuRuto administration was incompetent in economic management. This was manifested by unnecessary pile ups of public debt, of which a significant portion went into the wrong hands. Look at the Eurobond fiasco; the UhuRuto administration could not account for the 2014 USD 2.8 billion Eurobond. Switch lanes and consider the borrowing spree of the UhuRuto administration. Public debt spiraled upwards by around 353% from KES 1.89 trillion in 2013 to KES 8.56 trillion in 2022. The COVID-19 pandemic worsened the economic situation. Approximately 1.72 million workers lost their jobs between April and June 2020. Another 740,000 Kenyans lost their jobs in 2021.

This was a perfect moment for the UhuRuto administration to turn to the IMF and the World Bank to resuscitate the economy. Obviously, the Bretton Woods institutions never lend money without conditions. Kenya has since remained hooked to the IMF, with the latter prescribing unrealistic and theoretical economic policies to boost the economy post-COVID and under the Ruto administration.

Leaders first embark on the route to failure by deliberately not structuring a competent team to deliver their vision. A basic rule in organisational transformation is crafting a highly competent team. Getting the right people for the right job simplifies issues, whether in a bureaucratic setup or lean teams. Ruto has failed on this. Recall his first Cabinet; hard to point out any man or woman with an unmatched work ethic and elite professionalism in it. His second Cabinet is still subpar. People in pursuit of power and success often refer to the Machiavellian power book, but one thing they rarely pay attention to or ignore is the centrality of a competent team. According to Machiavelli, a leader’s intelligence is estimated by the people he surrounds himself with. Therefore, we can use this rulebook to judge and rank Ruto’s merit as a leader.

Succeeding as a leader is relatively easy if you listen to people. Ruto excels at this during elections. He listened to his presidential campaign think-tank when running for office in 2022. He equally listened to his allies and the on-ground voices when campaigning. It is baffling when he fails to pay attention to what people have said in the course of his presidency. Perhaps he believes having won the presidency at the first attempt makes him a genius. Wrong! He is not. He only capitalised on Raila Odinga’s disorganisation and complacency. Ruto has a bloated team of advisers who are perfect courtiers and typical jesters. Just a bunch of hangers-on.

On a few occasions, Kenya Kwanza-affiliated parliamentarians warned Ruto of growing hostility against his leadership due to the high cost of living. Such warnings dominated a Kenya Kwanza parliamentary group meeting in November 2023. The MPs informed him of the public’s displeasure with the withdrawal of fuel subsidies, and retrogressive taxation, among other unwelcome socioeconomic policies. Similar warnings were repeated at another meeting in February this year. Ruto chose to dismiss them.

Public heckling against Ruto and other Kenya Kwanza leaders gained momentum at the end of 2023 and the better part of this year before the pro-good governance mass protests. Ruto appeared surprised by the demonstrations, which, if he was keen enough and not blinded by hubris, would have prevented them. And even in the aftermath of the protests, he embraced time-wasting ventures instead of attempting to turn around his failures.

The public’s rejection of the IMF-initiated, controversial, punitive, and unpopular 2024 Finance Bill was a vote of no confidence against the Kenya Kwanza administration. His coalition partner and Prime Cabinet Secretary Musalia Mudavadi is on record having stated that the bill’s withdrawal would be a vote of no confidence against the government.

I am yet to see a government that works so hard to become unpopular. Kenya Kwanza offers a good template for this. The scheme to impeach Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua is another clear vote of no confidence against Ruto’s presidency. The public participation exercises showed disaffection against the most incompetent government in Kenya since independence…no, since the colonial era. The writing is on the wall; Ruto will be a one-term president.

So, what awaits a post-Ruto Kenya? This may sound premature than the process leading to this eventuality. The unity of purpose of like-minded forces is imperative. The majority is clearly anti-Ruto, and this should now transition from mobilisation to organisation. Mass and voluntary civic education should be prioritised by like-minded entities. Ideologically disciplined parties and coalitions should be established. These need to reflect a break from Kenya’s unprogressive political party culture, where parties are personality-based and devoid of institutionalism. Public scrutiny and pressure should be sustained against the political establishment, including the Kenya Kwanza leadership. Any proposed laws or amendments or policies must be subject to proper public participation. We are past the years of Odinga, Kalonzo, and the long-time political establishment. We need a new crop of devoted, fresh-thinking political leaders to take Kenya to the next level.

A post-Ruto Kenya should be a society that absolutely adheres to the Constitution. Chapter Six on Leadership and Integrity must be enforced. Fighting against and stamping out corruption has to be the main objective of the government and the public in a post-Ruto Kenya. It must be a republic where there are no shady commercial deals and all agreements involving development projects must be disclosed to the public. Details of the public debt and all procured loans must be publicised in a post-Ruto Kenya. Independence of the arms of government must be respected in a post-Ruto Kenya. A post-Ruto Kenya should pursue economic independence and stop the parasitic relationship with the IMF and other creditors. Public education and healthcare must be free in a post-Ruto Kenya. The youth must be at the centre of decision-making in a post-Ruto Kenya. The political leadership must work for the people in a post-Ruto Kenya.

Sitati Wasilwa writes and speaks on geopolitics and governance.

0

Arc of Authoritarianism Strengthening in East Africa

The debate on the centrality of democracy in promoting socioeconomic development is a chicken-and-egg conundrum. Most countries pursued development without embracing democratic institutions. Some of these countries later turned to establishing and strengthening their democratic institutions primarily after making significant development strides. Ha-Joon Chang meticulously demonstrates the nexus between democracy and economic development in his book, Kicking Away the Ladder.

Chang certifies two inescapable truths. First, the so-called developed countries were not democratic while developing. Second, the narrative of democracy as a pre-condition for economic development has been propagated by Western countries and multilateral institutions. It is a narrative that fits the frame of their global geostrategic interests.

I have made it a habit in my policy and political discourses to be guided by the prevailing context. Democracy is not key to economic development. However, this does not imply that authoritarianism is the absolute pathway to realising development. There is always the temptation to justify this by immortalising benevolent dictatorship. But it is unfair to validate benevolent dictatorship if at all a country has collectively approved Western-styled democratic institutions and practices. Obviously, this leads to another critical debate on whether Western democracy suits Africa and other non-Western countries.

We are currently accustomed to the absoluteness and cleavages of Western democracy. I mean, we may not have a better alternative at the moment. Though countries such as Botswana have proven that what could be thought of as Western democracy may as well have been practiced in African societies in the pre-colonial era. Botswana’s kgotla system demonstrably justifies this.

All East African countries have democratic or quasi-democratic institutions. The setup of these institutions is heavily Westernised. However, the democratic space in the region has been shrinking in recent years, particularly in Kenya and Tanzania. No surprises for Uganda and Rwanda as authoritarian tendencies remain as firm as they have always been under the long-term presidencies of Yoweri Museveni and Paul Kagame, respectively. There is not so much to anticipate in terms of democratic growth and development in these two countries.

Tanzania’s President Samia Suluhu has proven to be a good student of his predecessor John Magufuli. President Suluhu has increasingly become authoritarian over the last year. Her agenda of Reconciliation, Resilience, Reform, and Rebuild (4Rs) is pretty much a package of hot air. Police brutality is a norm under her administration. Harassment and arbitrary arrests of opposition leaders and other political dissidents are rife under her watch. Political-related abductions are part of her administration’s modus operandi.

President Suluhu has subtly proven to be incompetent and intolerant in the game of power just like Magufuli. Both seem to have a very wrong perspective of attempting to achieve development by oppressing their opponents. But these gimmicks are strategically aimed at consolidating power. In Suluhu’s case, she has illustrated her erratic power management skills by swiftly appointing and quickly dismissing high profile personalities.

In July 2024, she hastily revoked the appointment of senior executives in state corporations in the communications sector. In the same month, she fired two ministers; January Makamba (Foreign Minister) and Nape Nnauye (Information and ICT). Makamba served as Foreign Minister for 11 months and was Suluhu’s third appointee in the ministry since taking over from Magufuli. And there have been rafts of Cabinet reshuffles in her three-year rule. The Tanzania Intelligence and Security Services (TISS) has had three Director Generals since January 2023; quite an erratic turnover.

Kenya is an obvious basket case of fast-receding democratic gains in two years under the Kenya Kwanza coalition. The nightmarish memories of KANU and Daniel Arap Moi’s incompetent and authoritarian rule are back. Excessive use of police force, extrajudicial killings, abductions, torture, detention without trial, and fabricated charges are currently common. It takes a leader’s megalomaniac obsession to employ such inhumane tactics against the backdrop of persisting calls for better governance.

The highly publicized yet hollow Kenya Kwanza coalition manifesto – The Plan – has proven to be what the progressives initially thought of it. A flowery piece of excessively cheap jewelry. And this is an outcome of leadership without a philosophy. It is impossible to economically transform a country by retorting unphilosophical slogans coined around hustlers and wheelbarrows.

The fight against corruption is a lost cause under the Kenya Kwanza regime. The hastened withdrawal of high-profile corruption cases and closure of files by the Director of Public Prosecutions in the last two years affirms this. Consider the wealth accumulation of Kenya Kwanza-affiliated politicians and cronies. The recent vetting of Cabinet Secretary nominees is a microcosm of questionable wealth accumulation under this administration.

The Suluhu and Ruto administrations have never resisted the temptations of accusing external forces when questioned about their anti-democratic poses. Recently, President Suluhu criticised Western nations for calling her out on muzzling political dissidents. This does not mean that the West is spotless with regard to supporting authoritarian regimes. In Kenya, the West has been cagey in its condemnation of the brutality meted out to innocent young people in the wake of the pro-reform protests.

President Ruto and his team have illustrated they are typically out of touch with reality, shifting blame on the imagined sponsors of the youth-led protests. The Ford Foundation, Russia, Rigathi Gachagua, and Uhuru Kenyatta were blamed. So far, no evidence links any of these entities to the demonstrations. The creation of imagined enemies is an outcome of political leaderships that detest accountability.

Consolidation of political power can occur without endangering the fundamental rights and freedoms of opponents. This requires the mastery of the emotional and intellectual pathways of the game of power. Anything short of this denotes incompetence.

Democracy is certainly not a prerequisite for economic development. But it shields the people from the ill motives of demagogues and megalomaniacs. A Changian view may detest democracy as a vanguard for solid development. However, authoritarianism sets ideal conditions for extractive economic and political institutions. As solidly demonstrated by Daron Acemoglu and James Robinson in the book, Why Nations Fail, extractive institutions beget poor economic development. No coincidence that poverty rates in East Africa are barely decreasing almost six decades after independence.

Sitati Wasilwa writes and speaks on geopolitics and governance.  

0

Kenya’s ‘Gen Z’ Movement is Not Yet Done!

Politics largely gravitates around interests. The history of politics is replete with references to why enmity in politics is illusionary. Kenya is a perfect case study of politics lacking morality, conscience, dignity, and high standards. No wonder Kenya is struggling with the same issues it was battling at independence; disease, poverty, and ignorance. Who is to blame? First, the political leadership has proven to be greedy putting first self-interests at the expense of the common good. Kenya is one of the countries where politics is an avenue to riches. Second, a citizenry is often threatened by fear-mongering and primitive tribal-based politics.

Anyway, here we are. A cornered president forced to embrace his one-time ally and leader during the formative years of the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) party. But why did President William Ruto work with former Prime Minister Raila Odinga in the aftermath of pro-governance protests? Ruto was desperate, so desperate to cling to power. Wasn’t it intriguing to see the globe-trotting president grounded within the Kenyan borders? So far, Ruto has only made one foreign trip in the last two months! 

It is contentious who approached the other between Ruto and Odinga. I guess Ruto made the first move. An important fact to note is that Odinga’s usurping of the youth-led revolutionary moment to consolidate his riches and those of his henchmen was not a surprise. Odinga had earlier cut a deal with Ruto to contest for the chairperson’s position of the African Union Commission (AUC). The award of key ministries to ODM leaders justifies that Odinga may have demanded these after being approached by Ruto to help him consolidate his power. 

Odinga’s Pro-Democracy Credentials and Back-end Deals with Presidents

Odinga’s political union with Ruto has watered down his pro-democracy credentials. These are the sunset years and Odinga understands that he stands no chance of ever being Kenya’s president. He is after cementing the legacy of his four-decade political career by attempting to clinch the coveted AUC chairperson’s post. Odinga has in the past forged political unions with presidents, but the recent one with Ruto is simply deceitful and disgusting. On the streets, on social media…”Odinga took advantage of the blood shed by the youth.” Elitist, progressive-minded, and youthful Odinga’s supporters have certainly withdrawn their support for the veteran politician. 

How does Odinga benefit from these political unions, unholy alliances for that matter, with presidents? Politics is dictated by interests, and as stated for centuries, there are no permanent friends and enemies in politics. Kenyans easily forget that Odinga is a billionaire and one of the wealthiest people in Kenya. We never really care that much to question Odinga’s acquisition of wealth. He is a hard worker, but his political stature and networks earned him these riches. It is documented in several sources that Odinga benefited from the union with Daniel Moi after the 1997 elections by acquiring the controversial molasses plant in Kisumu. Odinga, however, denies this in his autobiography, The Flame of Freedom. 

Let’s crack this further. Moi appointed Odinga as Minister for Energy post-1997 elections. Guess who has interests and investments in the gas industry? Odinga’s East Africa Spectre, a leading manufacturer of liquified petroleum gas cylinders, serves domestic and international markets. The son of Kenya’s first vice president Oginga Odinga insists in his autobiography that his union with Moi was a political strategy to make a second stab at the presidency in 2002. 

Most people claim the formation of the Grand Coalition Government after the 2007/2008 post-election violence was Odinga’s political union with Mwai Kibaki. I strongly differ. Kibaki rigged the 2007 elections which Odinga won. I will excuse Odinga as this was a forced political marriage with Kibaki. This is one of my justifications why Kibaki’s presidency is overrated. 

The March 2018 ‘handshake’ between Odinga and President Uhuru Kenyatta was a strategic blunder for Odinga’s presidential ambitions. First, some of his supporters believed he had betrayed them as several protesters lost their lives in anti-government demonstrations. Second, Odinga embraced Uhuru, a president who seemed not to care about consolidating his power. Anyway, Ruto’s presidency is an outcome of Odinga’s political short-sightedness. 

There are a few critical questions at this point. Has Odinga ever intended to win the presidential elections? Has he been running for the elections not to win but to protect his interests? Is Odinga’s pro-democracy legacy overrated? While Odinga’s pragmatic approach to winning power is somehow understandable, his taking advantage of the death of youth due to the use of excessive force by an incompetent regime dilutes his pro-democracy credentials. 

Ruto’s Project-Launching Spree: ‘Gen Z’ Are Winners

One of Ruto’s economic advisors who swims in bourgeoisie intellectualism and lives in an ivory tower recently claimed that ‘Gen Z’ challenged Ruto to a political contest. David Ndii, probably the most arrogant human south of the Sahara, claimed Ruto has pulled the rug under the Kenyan youth and is on the ground consolidating his support. The Ruto hater turned romanticist of the amorphous, caricatured bottom-up economic model in his usual dismissive tone chided the ‘Gen Z’ for being busy trolling the incompetent administration on social media instead of focusing on 2027. Well, Ndii intentionally forgets his role as troller-in-chief having dismissed the mobilisation on social media prior to the commencement of the protests on June 18 and even more notably on June 25. In June, Ndii sensationally labeled the youth on social media calling for reforms as ‘digital wankers’ who are cowardly to take to the streets. 

Anyway, he is a typical example of a court jester who entertains the king despite an impending political disaster. The fact that President Ruto has traversed villages launching menial projects demonstrates the power of the people. It is funny that Ruto is consolidating his power – anyway, politics is about optics and PR – but of course by mobilising artificial crowds. Optics, PR, and propaganda are effective when running election campaigns; running a government and improving the lives of the people demands competence and meritocracy. On this, Ruto has failed. 

In 2021, I purchased and read a book – Why Do So Many Incompetent Men Become Leaders? The author deconstructs mediocre leaders and sub-par leadership. For instance, the author points out that we have great tolerance for people who are not as talented as they think. He goes on to state: “What it takes to get the job is not just different from, but also sometimes the reverse of, what it takes to do the job.” These are the sub-par metrics demonstrated by Ruto’s leadership. Ruto seems not to believe that Kenyans can protest against his leadership and demand his resignation. He overrates his importance. He demeans the intelligence of Kenyans. 

The project-launching spree will do little to change the course of a popular movement. A movement that is only concerned with high-quality governance and not the creation of wabenzis – mannerless, greedy, grandiose, arrogant politicians competing on who vomits quicker and heavily on Kenyans’ heads. Do not confuse a strategic retreat with a loss or surrender. The launching of dead and menial projects is akin to running on quicksand. And even before the project-launching rendezvous, the unarmed, peaceful ‘Gen Zs’ won, given the cowardly use of excessive force by the security apparatus against them. 

Aluta Continua! Of, For, and By the People

Earlier, I noted that President Ruto overrates or overestimates his capabilities, competence, and popularity – perhaps not as talented as he thinks. The popular, youth-led movement has not been politically nutmegged by the unholy political alliance of Willian Ruto and Raila Odinga. Here are the reasons why the ‘Gen Z’ movement is not yet done.

Economically, Kenya is far from creating decent, meaningful jobs. The Kenyan economy is mounted on weak fundamentals. Our economy can only continue creating conditions for informal, unsustainable jobs meaning that unemployment, underemployment, and poverty will thrive. These are issues that need concrete, long-term plans, and of course, killing corruption. Where do you expect these hungry, unemployed mobs to go? Exported to work as casuals in the Middle East? Drive boda bodas? Be mama mbogas? Reincarnate themselves as fool-proof hustlers? A hungry man is an angry man. 

A huge debt burden, if still poorly managed, will keep the flames of the revolution lit. Major weaknesses that Ruto’s advisors are not burning the midnight oil to sweet-talk him to get over it is his know-it-all attitude, detest for history, and probably his pococurante nature of not reading widely and deeply. Tax hikes will never propel developing, third-world economies to prosperity. A poorly managed, ballooned public debt is a harbinger for additional tax hikes commandeered by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the Ruto-led administration. But we need to be honest; tax increases are not the only ways to manage public debt. Ruto should ruthlessly kill corruption and renegotiate a significant number of existing debts. Otherwise, further tax hikes mean more poverty and you can guess the consequences. 

Related to the above, Ruto should mercilessly cut unnecessary spending. He has poorly performed on this. It seems the floodgates to quick riches and opulence were opened to his cronies as soon as he put down the sword and the constitution. One of Ruto’s pathways to failure is his preference for political expediency at the expense of competence and good results. I wonder about the extent of political debts he owes given his excessively large team of advisors and numerous hangers-on. Their time to eat perhaps! A consequence of untamed spending coupled with a huge debt burden is a higher incidence of poverty, and you expect the ‘Gen Zs’ to surrender…It is naive to think as such. 

Perhaps the final reason; the ‘Gen Zs’ are not cowardly, or they are rather more exposed and woke than their parents. And why do we have to be threatened when we express our dissatisfaction with poor governance? A culture we need to kill in Kenya and Africa is obeying those in power. Such a cowardly, embarrassing piece of advice. Aren’t we taxpayers? Why would a politician think the people are right and matter a great deal during elections, and the same people are perceived as enemies when demanding better leadership? Aluta continua…

The writer, Sitati Wasilwa, is an analyst of geopolitics and governance. His interests include armed conflict, foreign policy, power politics, political economy, leadership, and strategy.

0

Kenyan Youth are Protesting Punitive Taxation. How Did We Get Here?

June 18 and 20 will be historically remembered as days when the Kenyan youth dared to rise against an administration perceived as economically oppressive. The protests have been structurally different from previous anti-government demonstrations, except for the use of excessive force by police officers. Never mind that the Kenyan police have a poor human rights history. This is an institution in dire need of reforms, given its systemic decay and corruption stretching over 60 years!

So far, no political party or notable political figure has been involved in organising or leading the protests. For long, Kenya has been accustomed to Raila Odinga leading similar protests. The personality of the protesters is also a stark contrast from the hired ruffians we are used to in previous anti-government protests. The organisation and mobilisation have been a break from the past. Social media platforms, especially X (formerly Twitter) and TikTok, have been instrumental in mobilising.

What’s the issue?

At the centre of the protests are controversial tax proposals. A significant number of Kenyan youth and Kenyans in general perceive the Finance Bill 2024 as economically oppressive. On June 18, shortly after the protests broke out, the ruling coalition announced that unpopular tax proposals had been dropped. These are 16% VAT on bread, VAT on financial services and forex transactions, 2.5% motor vehicle tax, excise duty on vegetable oil, and VAT on sugar transportation. The proposed eco levy on locally manufactured sanitary towels, diapers, motorcycles, tyres, computers, and phones was also dropped. No income tax will be levied on the Social Health Insurance and the Housing Tax.

The Kenya Kwanza administration believed that getting rid of the aforementioned taxes after public pressure would dissipate sentiments against the 2024 Finance Bill. Kenyans protesting against the controversial Bill are demanding its total rejection and do not want any amendments. This indicates other underlying grievances that the ruling coalition has chosen to ignore. And this is the problem when you have a president who believes he is larger than life, brilliant, and swims in illusions of grandeur.

Underlying grievances

The William Ruto-led administration has been less effective in addressing the rising cost of living. Ruto took office when the economy was at a crossroads with high public debt and slow economic recovery in the aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic. His administration opted to ravenously increase taxes as a means to raise revenue to settle part of the public debt. This never sat well with a good number of Kenyans who are battling poverty and reduced household budgets. Since September 2022, conversations in the streets, villages, and thoroughfares of major urban centres have centred around nicknaming President Ruto as Zacchaeus the Tax Collector.

There is seething anger, especially among schooled Kenyans, about the role of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in the country’s economic management. The Ruto-led administration’s foreign policy leans heavily towards the West. The IMF is on record directing the Ruto administration to fast-track taxation measures to increase revenue. There is a big disconnect between the IMF’s demands and the on-ground reality. Making a decent living as a Kenyan is currently difficult.

This is not the first time that the IMF has played an active role in Kenya’s economic management by pushing for structural adjustment policies (SAPs) as a means of economic recovery. In the 1990s, the IMF pushed for similar SAPs that led to cuts in spending on healthcare, education, and physical infrastructure. These unrealistic policies also led to an increase in unemployment,, with a significant number of Kenyans retrenched from the public sector. The second-hand industry well-known locally as mitumba flourished courtesy of the SAPs. The policies simply killed the textile industry. The Ruto administration has bent backward the arc of history. Presently, there are constraints in financing public education, public healthcare, and other critical sectors.

Some of the legislators and ministers in the current government are not shy of displaying opulent lifestyles. Convincingly, these are proceeds from looted public resources. The youthful protesters are disgusted with this shameless exhibition of wealth by politicians whose salaries do not match their expensive watches, belts, clothes, cars, and houses, among other material stuff.

Arrogant political leadership

The Kenya Kwanza politicians, including the president, are arrogant and corrupted with power. Since taking over just over 20 months ago, Kenyans who question the ruling coalition for accountability are lectured on how President Ruto is brilliant enough to turn around the economy and offer decisive political leadership. He simply lacks the fundamentals to lead us towards prosperity of any kind. It is the Kenya Kwanza administration that has branded Kenya the “Singapore of Africa.” Clearly, the bottom-of-the-barrel stuff. Nothing done by this administration comes close to Singapore, a country whose GDP was almost at par with Kenya’s in the early 1960s.

Singapore’s governance is anchored on meritocracy, pragmatism, and honesty. The Ruto-led administration has demonstrated that any Tom, Dick, or Harry can be appointed to senior government positions without merit as long as they are sycophants. The Cabinet tells it all! The punitive taxes implemented and proposed indicate the lack of pragmatism to the on-ground reality. It is impractical to overtax people who are still battling the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic and other systemic economic issues. Corruption defines the values or lack thereof of the Kenya Kwanza administration. This is far off from honesty.

Governing by lying is a leisurely walk on quicksand. You can win elections by lying but the same hardly works when running government. Most youthful Kenyans are simply fed up with regurgitated lies and endless promises. President Ruto has been heckled several times in public rallies over the last year. Embarrassingly, high-ranking Kenya Kwanza coalition politicians are arrogantly claiming that they are happy to have shifted the conversation from personality cults to economic issues. This is a howler.

History of resistance

Kenyans may not be the ideal individuals to publicly demonstrate against the government. However, Kenyans have historically resisted oppression and advocated for reforms. The fight for independence is a critical juncture that highlights the public’s pushback against oppression. Jomo Kenyatta may have been lucky to escape public outrage and fight for reforms even with the assassinations of the flamboyant Tom Mboya and the courageous J. M. Kariuki as well as the eminent Pio Gama Pinto. However, the less-spoken coup attempts of 1965 and 1971 highlight the dissatisfaction with the status quo.

Arap Moi, the passing cloud turned autocrat, endured a fair share of resistance in his 24-year presidency. First, the 1982 coup attempt which he was lucky to have his presidency saved. Second, the fight for the reintroduction of the multiparty political system in the early 1990s. Moi conceded to public pressure. Finally, Moi and his party KANU were sent packing in the December 2022 elections. It was always unimaginable that Moi and KANU would be dethroned from power. Voters massively voted for the opposition NARC coalition and its candidate Mwai Kibaki to teach Moi a lesson.

Kibaki squandered the best opportunity to change Kenya forever after two years in power. However, the 2005 constitutional referendum and the violent protests in the aftermath of the 2007 elections demonstrated the majority’s dissatisfaction with his leadership albeit robust economic growth. Uhuru Kenyatta’s regime oversaw punitive laws such as the amendment of the electoral laws. Uhuru was lucky to escape public resistance in his second term following the infamous March 18, 2018, handshake with Raila Odinga.

What does the future hold?

The protests are unlikely to stop. They will likely intensify as the Finance Bill 2024 awaits to go through the remaining legislative stages. The ruling coalition has the numbers to punitively pass the Bill. But these historical protests will change Kenya’s political history going forward.

President Ruto will be lucky to get reelected in 2027. Ruto won the presidential elections with a margin of around 200,000 votes in an election in which approximately eight million voters did not vote. The majority of those who did not vote were youthful voters. The youth are going to register and vote en masse come 2027. No way Ruto and his henchmen will survive the tsunami.

There is strength in numbers. I foresee a scenario where the youth will register their parties and field their candidates. Nothing definitely stops them. Around 80% of Kenya’s population is under 35 years. The median age of the Kenyan population is 19 years. I do not see any way out for the Ruto-led administration to change the economic fortunes of the youth in the remaining three years of his presidency. The chickens are fast coming home to roost. It is not yet uhuru for us!

Sitati Wasilwa is a geopolitical and governance analyst. This article is a personal opinion and has no relation to his institutional affiliations.

0

General F. O. Ogolla: A Farewell through the Lenses

Life is fickle! General Francis Omondi Ogolla seemed to have come to terms with human mortality. Last year at a church service, General Ogolla said, “In my military life, I have come to learn the reality of human mortality. I have appreciated that life is finite, humans are mortal, and life is short. One morning, you are with a healthy colleague. The next minute he is ashes and gone.” Sounds like a premonition!

April 18, 2024, will forever be etched in Kenya’s history. The death of the Chief of the Defence Forces (CDF) of the Republic of Kenya, General Francis Omondi Ogolla, the first for a sitting military chief in the country, is historical. General Ogolla’s appointment itself was historical; he was the first CDF from the Luo ethnic group. Then again, the Luos have endured painful moments in Kenya’s history with the controversial deaths of high-profile, promising, and ambitious figures. Tom Mboya and Robert Ouko are revered in death as they were in life.

One could definitely argue that Mboya was not a Luo proper; originally, he was from the Abasuba ethnic group. Nonetheless, the Abasuba are culturally assimilated by the Luo. Anyway, Mboya, Ouko, and Ogolla could have been cut from different clothes, but these were polished and suave gentlemen. Mboya stands out as the most brilliant politician in Kenya’s history. He was outstanding given his achievements for the 39 years he lived. He is the type of human who perhaps appears once every 100 years. This is how legendary musician Sam Mangwana described his compatriot and king of Rhumba, the Congo Colossus, and Grand Master Franco Luambo Makiadi.

Ouko, an affable, charismatic, and charming personality just like Mboya, could possibly have emerged as a key player on the national political scene. Ogolla may have enjoyed the privilege of breathing his last while at the peak of his military career. Mboya and Ouko were hardly at the peak of their political careers when they were assassinated.

General Ogolla’s death has certainly evoked these memories. Wild speculations are rife on whether his death was pre-planned or otherwise. I am tempted to avoid this debate, but I will certainly join the bandwagon. The circumstances surrounding Ogolla’s death are suspicious. There are claims that the aircraft initially scheduled to ferry the General was suddenly swapped at the last minute to transport a senior government official. This is unprofessional, at least if the claims are true.

Kenya has a notoriety for hero-worshipping senior government officials and politicians. This is no surprise for a country where politicians and their wheeler dealers prefer opulent lifestyles over intentional, goal-oriented policymaking and competent public service.

On April 2, 2015, during the Garissa University terrorist attack, a police aircraft that was to transport commandos to battle terrorists was used to fly the family of a senior police officer from holiday. In January last year, a high-cost, custom-made operational helicopter previously used for surveillance was upgraded and handed over to Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua for official and unofficial use. Quite absurd! There could be other similar instances.

Nonetheless, there are harsh realities that the Kenyan government must confront during and after investigations surrounding the helicopter crash that led to the General’s demise. Five military aircraft crashes in the last 12 months is a worrying trend the Kenya Defence Forces (KDF) and the government should address. This is a terrible record for a military that is highly respected regionally and globally for its professionalism. The Cabinet Secretary of Defence Aden Duale, escaped death by a whisker when a KDF military helicopter hit a tree and crashed while taking off in Turkana in July last year.

A comprehensive audit of the entire KDF aircraft unit for hardware and personnel should be carried out, and the results publicised. Similarly, the outcome of the investigations into the cause of the crash of the helicopter ferrying General Ogolla and other military officers should be made public. But the investigations could take a long time; rumours indicate probably between six and 12 months or more. Gone are the days of the government hiding behind the curtains and not publicly sharing so-called sensitive and confidential information. From a security standpoint, though, there are concerns about publicly availing such information. However, at least the Parliament should be briefed about these results.

General Ogolla had an amiable personality. He came across as having a cool, calm, and collected personality. His passion for physical fitness was easily seen. He was physically fit at 62 years old and consistently exercised in the morning at the Ulinzi Sports Complex. A KDF bulletin reiterates his philosophy on holistic health for military officers. Ogolla was outspoken about the role of physical fitness for military officers and its benefits in sustaining discipline and good, long-term health. As he remarked, “Fitness is important in any military in the world, and it keeps you stronger, healthier, and more versatile.”

Ogolla’s predecessor General Robert Kibochi, was also a fitness enthusiast. In an interview, Kibochi disclosed a plaque in his office that read, “I respect fit people.” These two were visibly fit and in good shape. A good number of their predecessors had unpleasant potbellies. Physical fitness is a hallmark of a disciplined soldier. This also applies to police officers. Comparatively, Kenyan military officers are in better shape than police officers. I naturally frown upon men and women in uniform who are physically unfit.

Leading by example is a trait that General Ogolla embraced. This is a critical lesson for those in leadership or aspiring to lead. I have interacted with, read about, and observed leaders. Unfortunately, a majority never leads from the front and is full of mediocrity, wimpishness, and incompetence. Ogolla died while literally leading from the front. His morning exercise routine occasionally alongside different military units reinforces Ogolla’s mantra to lead by example.

How best will Ogolla be remembered? For attempting to overturn the victory of William Ruto as president-elect in 2022, as he claimed? As the shortest serving military chief in Kenya’s history so far? As Kenya’s first CDF who died in office? As another high-profile personality whose death is likely to remain a mystery for ages? He was a remarkable husband and father, and a steadfast philanthropist in his community in Alego Usonga. I will remember him for the little things that made him outstanding.

Sitati Wasilwa is a geopolitical analyst with an interest in political economy, foreign policy, political risk, and armed conflict. He is passionate about leadership, strategy, and military-related issues.

0

Weah’s Loss a Win for Political Accountability & Lessons for Incumbents

President George Weah recently lost the presidential election run-off to opposition candidate and former Vice President Joseph Boakai. Both the first and second rounds were closely contested. Weah won in the first round. Weah was gracious in his defeat; he called for the prioritisation of national interests above personal and party interests. This is perhaps uncommon in African politics, where incumbents could rig votes or attempt to use any means possible to subvert the wishes of the majority. Besides. Weah’s defeat is a key lesson in political accountability in Africa; political leaders who perform poorly do not deserve second chances.

Weah’s loss is not the first election in Africa where a sitting president or ruling party has been voted out. In Zambia in 1991, the country’s founding father, Kenneth Kaunda, lost in the first-ever multiparty elections to Fred Chiluba. Kaunda had served 27 years as president. Still in Zambia, President Edward Lungu lost to Hakainde Hichilema in 2021. Lungu’s administration became unpopular due to poor economic management, corruption, and oppressing political opponents. In Ghana in 2016, then-President John Mahama lost to current President Nana Akufo-Addo, chiefly due to poor economic management. In Nigeria, Goodluck Jonathan lost to Muhammadu Buhari in 2015 on issues related to the threat of terrorism posed by Boko Haram.

In the Ivory Coast in 2010, Laurent Gbagbo lost to Alassane Ouattara due to poor governance. In Senegal, the once-popular Abdoulaye Wade lost to Macky Sall in the presidential election in 2012. This was after Wade ran for an unconstitutional third term. Also, his administration had performed poorly on economic management. In Malawi, Joyce Banda lost to Peter Mutharika in 2014. In 2020, Mutharika in turn lost to current President Lazarus Chakwera. Poor governance was the major cause of the losses of the incumbents. Back home, the independence party – the Kenya African National Union (KANU) – lost the presidential election to the opposition National Alliance Rainbow Coalition (NARC) in 2002. There is no doubt that former President Mwai Kibaki lost the 2007 election but remained in power due to rigging. KANU had ruined the economy and fashioned political oppression. Kibaki was not saintly. Reneging on the coalition power-sharing agreement was the primary factor that bred resentment against his presidency.

Democracy, Accountability & Stability

The outcome of Liberia’s presidential election and the aforementioned defeat of incumbents and ruling parties demonstrate that Africa is not a graveyard of democracy. Anyway, democracy is relative and its definition and practice are fundamentally contextual. Nonetheless, free and fair elections can fast-track political accountability in Africa. Such elections are avenues for the citizenry to vet the performance of political leaders and parties. Political accountability via free and fair elections is critical for long-term political stability. But of course, political stability is not only determined by credible elections as it is also a function of other factors; cross-border regional and global terrorism, coups sponsored by foreign powers, and unrest triggered by economically unwise and oppressive policies by the Bretton Woods institutions.

Political instability in Burkina Faso and Mali is proof that the threat of terrorism and armed rebellion affect a country’s stability. Both countries have had several coups in the last eleven or so years due to the inability of governments to combat insurgency and armed rebellion. France has a history of orchestrating coups in some Francophone African countries.

Lessons for Incumbents & Countries Set to Hold Elections

Incumbents in African countries accustomed to unfair electoral processes may find it difficult to learn from Weah’s loss. Leaders and political parties in countries that attempt to hold regular and open elections might draw lessons from Liberia’s presidential election results. It will be interesting to watch how the current presidents and ruling parties fair on in Ghana, Malawi, and Kenya in elections scheduled for 2024, 2025, and 2027 respectively.

In Ghana, the ruling New Patriotic Party (NPP) is racing against time to convince the electorate that it is capable of addressing the effects of a huge public debt after eight years in power. Interestingly, the NPP has picked Vice President Mahamudu Bawumia as its candidate. Bawumia, an economist and former central banker, harshly criticised former President Mahama’s administration for economic mismanagement in the lead-up to the 2016 elections. The NPP goes into the 2024 elections having not bettered the lives of ordinary Ghanaians.

Malawi’s President Chakwera is battling mounting opposition due to corruption and nepotism. Chakwera’s pre-election promises to reform Malawi’s governance system are seemingly fizzling out. He is now disposed to piecemeal, knee-jerk policy decisions to win popular support such as his recent ban on foreign travel for his ministers and himself. Kenya’s William Ruto – a much acclaimed political genius but who is currently overestimating his popularity – could as well face an uphill task in his reelection bid. Ruto is bullish in his dismissal of the hostility that is gradually building up against his administration due to tax hikes and the cost of living that is on an upward spiral. He recently disparaged legislators allied with his United Democratic Alliance party when they raised concerns about his administration’s rising unpopularity. Credible elections can improve the performance culture of Africa’s political leadership.

Sitati Wasilwa is a political economist.

0

Website Powered by WordPress.com.

Up ↑

Design a site like this with WordPress.com
Get started