On January 19, 2026, the Sudanese People’s Liberation Army – In Opposition (SPLA-IO) Deputy Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Wisley Welebe Samson ordered forces to move to Juba from all directions. The advance aims at removing what Welebe describes as the “anti-peace regime.” Welebe called on disgruntled members of the South Sudanese People’s Defence Forces (SSPDF) to defect. He further ordered civilians to evacuate military targets. Consequently, President Salva Kiir dismissed four Cabinet ministers, a governor, a deputy governor, and a senior intelligence officer.

Recent Clashes

The SPLA-IO’s call for its forces to advance to Juba is primarily an outcome of the persisting divisions in the fragile coalition government. It is also linked to the recent fighting between the opposition troops and government forces (SSPDF). On January 2, the Kit-Gang faction of the SPLA-IO took control of Uror County in Jonglei State, following clashes with the SSPDF. Reports indicate around 70 people died and thousands were displaced. President Kiir carried out a mini-reshuffle of the Cabinet on January 7, replacing opposition-aligned ministers with loyalists.

Heavy fighting occurred between the two groups in the northern part of Jonglei State from January 12 to 15. On January 16, the SPLA-IO announced the capture of the strategic town of Pajut in Duk County, approximately 300 km north of Juba. The seizure of Pajut enhances prospects of the SPLA-IO’s attack and capture of Bor. The SPLA-IO also issued a 72-hour ultimatum to aid workers and civilians in Duk, Bor, and Poktap to evacuate places near military installations. The group further demanded the unconditional release of the estranged First Vice President Riek Machar and leader of the SPLM-IO and others within two weeks.

Additional clashes occurred on January 17 and 18 in Pigi County in Jonglei State, prompting the government to deploy more troops to purposely defend Bor. Clashes persisted in Panyume in Central Equatoria State on January 19 and 20 following an offensive launched by the SPLA-IO.

The United Nations describes the clashes as the most intense since 2017. Clashes involving the SSPDF and the SPLA-IO, and other armed groups, peaked in 2017, following the 2016 collapse of the transitional government.

Key Points

The main issues characterising South Sudan’s political environment are as follows:

• The transitional framework has stalled: Repeated delays to elections and reforms reflect a shared elite preference for postponement over risk-taking, rather than an inability to move forward.
• Violence functions as political signalling: Localised clashes serve to recalibrate power balances, test red lines, and assert relevance within the governing arrangement, rather than to trigger nationwide conflict.
• Security forces remain factionalised: The absence of credible security sector reform continues to anchor political competition in armed leverage rather than institutions.
• Succession concerns are shaping behaviour: Uncertainty over future leadership is encouraging pre-emptive positioning by key actors, increasing the likelihood of calibrated instability.
• International leverage is diminishing: Diplomatic engagement persists, but enforcement mechanisms are weak and external attention is increasingly divided.

Outlook

A managed stalemate is the most likely scenario in the near term. As such, the state is expected to retain formal authority with uneven governance, a fragmented security architecture, and contested political legitimacy. Tolerance of instability and elites leveraging it for influence are anticipated. Further slippage of the transitional timelines and occasional outbreaks of violence are expected, particularly in the hotspots. A gradual erosion of tolerance and heightened tensions over suspicions linked to a mismanaged transition could trigger a full-blown conflict over time.