Raila Odinga: A Remembrance

My earliest memories of the enigmatic Raila Odinga were in the late 1990s, when I was in my formative schooling years. This was shortly after the 1997 election, which Daniel Moi and the Kenya African National Union (KANU) party allegedly won.

Moi rigged votes in his favour, and 1997 was an opportunity for him to demonstrate his mastery of the cutbacks on electoral systems. These nascent memories are courtesy of my father, who religiously purchased copies of the three major newspapers then – the Daily Nation, the Standard, and the People’s Daily.

Around that time, my curiosity was also elevated by access to copies of contemporary political publications, such as the Society Magazine and the Weekly Review. My dad had copies of these publications, some dating to the early 1990s when multiparty politics was reintroduced. I cannot clearly recall some key political events that followed shortly after the elections. This includes the 1998 cooperation between KANU and the National Development Party (NDP), then led by Raila Odinga.

By 2001, I had a keen interest in political events. I recollect the June 2001 appointment of Raila Odinga and other NDP MPs to the Cabinet by Moi. The newspapers and radio stations extensively broadcast Raila’s appointment as energy minister. Others who joined the Cabinet were Adhu Awiti (planning minister), Orwa Ojode (education assistant minister), and Peter Odoyo (foreign affairs assistant minister).

Months later, in March 2002, one of the most consequential political events occurred: the KANU-NDP merger. I was in boarding school at that time, but managed to get access to newspapers. A month or so later, when schools closed for the April holiday, I went through newspapers page by page at home to keep up with the merger. Luckily, the media was still covering the significance of the event. It was unclear at that time if Moi would leave the presidency or extend his term despite his insistence on retiring by sticking to the two-term presidential term limit. A formidable, broad-based opposition movement was uncertain then.

Moi’s endorsement of Uhuru Kenyatta seven months later, on October 14, 2002, shifted the momentum and paved the way for the eventual formation of a united opposition coalition against Moi and KANU. Since then, Raila remained a highly influential political player, a colossus of sorts, until his death.

Following the death of the legendary Franco Luambo Makiadi on October 12, 1989, Sam Mangwana described him as “a man who comes once in 100 years.” Mangwana inherently referred to Franco’s combination of musical brilliance, leadership, innovation, and lyrical power that was so rare in a career that spanned four decades. Franco also commanded a religious following, and his music is immortal.

Parallels can be drawn between Raila Odinga and Luambo Makiadi. First, their souls departed in October. Three days before Odinga’s death, I had passionately celebrated Luambo’s 36^th death anniversary. Probably great men, revolutionaries, die in October. Thomas Sankara and Samora Machel died on October 15, 1987, and October 19, 1986, respectively. Second, the two lives of these legends offer lessons in longevity. They mastered the art of reinventing themselves amid fierce competition and changing times.

Third, they commanded a cult-like following in life and in death. There are charismatic people all over, but very few are uniquely charming. Fourth, Luambo and Odinga were pragmatists and built their admirable careers by building alliances. They worked with their rivals, a typically Machiavellian power strategy.

Raila Odinga had power arrangements with Daniel Moi, Mwai Kibaki, Uhuru Kenyatta, and William Ruto. To many, these were personal and opportunistic. But they embodied the pragmatic sense of acquiring power. This is not an endorsement of the formation of the broad-based government. The Grand Master of Congolese rhumba and African music, Luambo Makiadi, forged alliances with one of his biggest rivals, Tabu Ley Rochereau. This union of legends produced one of the best music compositions.

My respect for Mwai Kibaki waned following the events of the controversial 2007 elections. While I was a high school student, I was politically conscious. I wondered why Kibaki would mastermind vote rigging when Odinga had won. It was confusing. A day or two before Chief Justice Evan Gicheru swore in Kibaki, I went to bed ecstatic, fantasizing about a Raila Odinga presidency.

The headline of the Saturday Standard the following day affirmed my conviction of Raila Odinga winning the presidential election. My father had sent me to purchase a copy of the dailies to keep track of the election developments. Odinga had polled 3.34 million votes against Kibaki’s 2.45 million. Later that evening, a tide swept, and votes apparently streamed in from the so-called Kibaki strongholds, including the infamous Tharaka Nithi.

Tensions were visibly high at the national tallying centre at the KICC. Odinga looked deeply frustrated with his lieutenants, James Orengo, William Ruto, et al., demanding fairness from the then chairperson of the Electoral Commission of Kenya, Samuel Kivuitu. Anyway, an Odinga presidency never materialised. I could not fathom why Odinga would let it go, having run one of the most remarkable and consequential political campaigns in Kenya’s political history.

In his autobiography, The Flame of Freedom, and multiple interviews, Odinga maintains that he chose to form the grand coalition government in 2008 for the sake of national unity. This was despite objections by hardliners in the ODM negotiating team at the Serena Hotel who wanted nothing less than Kibaki conceding or the formation of a transitional government leading to elections in a few months.

Odinga reiterated the need for national unity following his political reconciliation with Uhuru Kenyatta in March 2018 and William Ruto in 2024. I am convinced the 2008 Odinga was fundamentally different from the one in 2018 and 2024, and perhaps the 1998 one.

The 2008 Odinga was much more concerned about national unity, given the widespread post-election violence. But the Odinga of 1998, 2018, and 2024 was an opportunistic one who aimed at securing his political and economic interests. The 1998 KANU-NDP cooperation was a strategic maneuver by Odinga to position himself as a potential successor to Daniel Moi in 2002. Odinga played this card, having in mind a possible divided opposition and the fact that no high-ranking KANU leaders had experience in running in presidential elections.

It would be out of order to claim he pushed for his economic interests to secure the purchase of the Kisumu molasses factory in light of the political cooperation with KANU. A significant number of people claim that the land where the factory was located was illegally acquired by Spectre International, the Odinga family business. These allegations are traced to the 2003 Ndung’u Land Commission Report. According to the report, “direct allocation of alienated government land to the company (Spectre International) by the commissioner of lands was illegal.”

A few interesting facts! The Ndung’u Commission was established following a report by a task force Odinga formed in 2003, when he was the minister for roads, public works, and housing. The aim was to assess the status of government property and housing amid deeply entrenched corruption. Second, the government acquired the molasses factory land in 1982, but payments for the land were not made in full. Bidding for the factory gained momentum in the mid-1990s.

Foul play cannot be ruled out in the findings of the Ndung’u Report on Spectre’s illegal acquisition of the land. Lots of political witch-hunting was at play by mid-2003, a few months after the formation of the NARC administration. Two camps had emerged over the failure to implement the infamous power-sharing Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) signed by the Kibaki-led National Alliance of Kenya (NAK) and the Raila-led Liberal Democratic Party (LDP). These were the principal units that formed NARC.

Were it not for a court order sought by Spectre International in January 2006, perhaps the company, Odinga, and others would have been prosecuted. Kibaki’s acolytes were not leaving anything to chance, especially after the embarrassing defeat in the August 2005 constitutional referendum. It was evident by then that Odinga would be a force to reckon with in the 2007 elections.

Political and economic interests motivated the extra-constitutional power arrangements of 2018 and 2024. The 2018 one could have targeted cutting off William Ruto from Kenyatta and weakening him in the run-up to the 2017 election. It never worked with Ruto playing victim. The 2024 arrangement occurred when Ruto was extremely desperate following a wave of youth-led protests. The fact that this power deal was followed by the impeachment of then Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua raises suspicions.

It is difficult to figure out the specific political goal Odinga was pursuing. Was he strategically positioning ODM to be a principal coalition partner with UDA in 2027? Or was he just playing the good guy card to cement his status as a statesman? On both occasions, the commercial interests of the Odinga family were on the table.

I embraced Odinga’s ideologies in the lead-up to the 2007 election, given the manner in which he packaged his campaign messaging. He built his manifesto on infrastructure as the key to transforming Kenya’s socioeconomic fortunes. Little credit is given to Raila Odinga for being the brainchild of some notable physical infrastructure projects. The Thika Superhighway, the LAPSETT corridor project, and multiple by-passes in Nairobi were conceptualised by Odinga. To me, he stands out as the most progressive roads minister in Kenya’s history.

At the onset of the NARC administration, Odinga, with gusto, oversaw the demolition of structures built on road reserves. He attempted to inject some sanity as Kenya was transitioning from an irredeemably corrupt Moi administration. The construction of the Raila Odinga Way, previously known as Mbagathi Way, highlights his legacy and embodies his high value for posterity. He was on record many times, noting that most of his decisions are based on posterity.

The Raila Odinga Way was initiated during his time as roads minister, and it was constructed from 2005 to 2007. It was a pilot project to assess the viability of concrete road technology in the country. The road is still in shape almost two decades later.

One has to admire Odinga for his resilience, willpower, and intellect. Few can survive eight years of detention, considering the physical and psychological torture victims are subjected to. It is even more agonizing to imagine Odinga’s mum and brother died and got buried while he was in detention. Odinga endured the loss of his four siblings and eldest son but chose to fight for a cause larger than his life. He lost the presidential election multiple times but stayed on course.

Odinga’s resilience resonates with Viktor Frankl’s thoughts in his book, Man’s Search for Meaning. This excerpt from the book’s preface highlights Frankl’s view on finding purpose in life even during moments of suffering:

“…The great task for any person is to find meaning in his or her life: in work (doing something significant), in love (caring for another person), and in courage in difficult times…Suffering in and of itself is meaningless; we give our suffering meaning by the way in which we respond to it…”

His autobiography, The Flame of Freedom, remains one of my favourite memoirs, especially in the Kenyan context. It is relatively rich in history. Most Kenyan autobiographies are quite shallow and read more like eulogies than texts meant to inspire thinking, belief, and action.

Raila also authored Quest for Nationhood – Roadmap to Our Future. As revealed by one of his sisters on the burial day, he was working on another book on Pan-Africanism. He had also instructed Anyang’ Nyong’o to work on a paper on nationhood and tribalism just before his demise.

I highly value people who have been in the limelight to pen down the intrigues of their lives, motivations, purpose, and achievements. In one of my blog posts, I stated the need for such figures to give us more books, but meaningful ones. I have read memoirs that left me cursing the authors for presenting underwhelming information despite having been in the corridors of power.

His father’s, Not Yet Uhuru, is also a remarkable autobiography. Raila Odinga stands out among the few Kenyan politicians who found meaning in writing books, again for posterity purposes. Apart from Anyang’ Nyong’o, it is difficult to easily identify politicians who are intellectually grounded. And I do not imply academic qualifications…We glorify the practice of acquiring academic certificates instead of valuing intellectualism. There is a high deficit of thinkers in Kenya.

It is a generational tragedy that politicians annoyingly talk of Kenya as the next Singapore, yet their woeful intellects tell of a limited understanding of the formidable thinker Lee Kuan Yew was. I am hopeless for a better Kenya.

Odinga was overall well-informed, not just about history, but about many issues. His parliamentary contributions and Cabinet briefings demonstrated a man who highly valued knowledge.

The most consequential deaths generally lead to destructive institutional episodes, largely due to internal contradictions. The ODM party will wane, and the political careers of Odinga’s hangers-on will die with his demise. Despite his intellect and strong belief in institutions, Odinga did not build ODM for posterity. He failed to overcome the Kenyan political party culture, where parties are built around personalities and not effective institutional elements.

I cannot blame him for this. This is a culture primarily associated with the political parties that emerged with the reintroduction of multiparty politics. However, this goes further back to the colonial era. Perhaps KANU, after the death of Jomo Kenyatta, escaped this. His successor, Moi, was deeply entrenched in the system, and an inherent succession plan was already in place before his death.

FORD-Kenya weakened significantly with Oginga Odinga’s death in 1994. Tragedy struck the party the second time within a decade in August 2003 with the death of Vice President Kijana Wamalwa. The party sank deeper. Currently, its leaders are proud to have it as the most popular party among the Bukusu people in Bungoma and Trans-Nzoia counties.

KANU lost its allure with Daniel Moi’s exit from the presidency. Moi personalized KANU after Jomo’s death. One of the primary causes was the 1982 coup attempt that prompted him to consolidate power and resulted in the legal ban of other parties.

Multiple factions within ODM will eventually split and weaken it. Part of the leadership led by the Secretary General, Edwin Sifuna, opposes the broad-based government and vouches for the party to field a presidential candidate in 2027. Others strongly support the broad-based government and vow to support Ruto’s reelection.

Appointing Raila’s brother, Oburu Oginga, as the acting party leader may have been motivated by paranoia and interests. Large political parties in Kenya are extensively family enterprises. This, plus other factors, will hasten the party’s weakening.

ODM has been on a gradual downward trajectory in the past decade. This is supported by its performance in the 2013, 2017, and 2022 elections, apart from presidential polls. Its agreement with UDA/KKA to form the broad-based government impacted it significantly. Weeks ago, its SG Sifuna raised concerns about the fading desire by aspirants to run for elections on ODM.

Oburu lacks the national appeal that Raila enjoyed. I am careful not to refer to Oburu as weak – and I do not mean physically – but he does not inspire confidence. There are leaders whose supporters can go to war for. At least not Oburu.

Raila’s eldest brother is safeguarding the interests of ODM ‘conservatives.’ Linked to this are Ruto’s interests and machinations to win ODM’s support for his unassured reelection. Ruto might have influenced the selection of Oburu as the acting party leader. Ruto’s political career could be a victim of Raila’s death. A fractured ODM and a united opposition spell doom for him.

I have keenly listened to Oburu’s speeches after assuming the party leader’s role of ODM. Fundamentally, it’s double-speak. His speeches carry a reconciliatory tone. But the power arrangement between ODM and UDA/KKA is intact. Oburu was a staunch supporter of this extra-constitutional arrangement when Raila was alive. (I will dedicate the next few weeks to digging deeper and understanding Oburu’s worldview and leadership. But the November 2^nd, 2025, Sunday Nation’s Weekly Review was a good starting point. His autobiography is on my bucket list).

In September 2024, Raila Odinga, with the NEC’s endorsement, settled on Anyang’ Nyong’o as the party’s acting leader. This was at the onset of Odinga’s campaigns for the chairperson’s position of the African Union Commission (AUC).

Nyong’o is a near ideological twin to Raila and would make a better party leader than Oburu ideologically. But the two gentlemen are aging. They may resonate with the generational shift in Kenyan politics. Even so, Oburu should facilitate a transition to relatively youthful leadership for posterity.

For ODM to remain relevant and possibly become vibrant, it must embrace youthful leadership. It should brand itself as the political party of the present and the future. The present and the future of Kenya oscillate on political and economic solutions that address the plight of the youth.

The three ODM deputy party leaders are not visionaries. The immediate former two deputy party leaders who were appointed as Cabinet Secretaries in the broad-based government are not good enough to lead ODM. Ideally, an ODM of the future should be built around Sifuna’s talents. He stands out as a visionary and the most qualified to lead the party.

I will forever miss Raila Odinga. His legacy for pro-democratic reforms is solid. His intellect is admirable. His decision-making for posterity is cherished. It is unbelievable that he died. Looks like a dream!

May his soul rest in eternal peace!

The writer, Sitati Wasilwa, is a political risk analyst and strategist. His writings are independent of his institutional affiliations.

November 3, 2025 0

Calls for National Dialogue Opportunistic and Baseless

Former Prime Minister Raila Odinga often struggles to read the room. On July 7, 2025, his lethargic speech, commemorating the 35^th anniversary of Saba Saba Day, affirms this. Two or three aspects of the speech intrigued me.

First, Odinga’s call for a national dialogue, which he referred to as an inclusive intergenerational national conclave. Second, a national referendum to vote on the outcomes of the dialogue. Third, a demand for police reforms and an end to police brutality.

Odinga is deluded and demonstrates his religious obsession through such dialogues, which he has historically capitalized on to gain government power.

The Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) that led to the formation of the incompetent broad-based government stipulates a 10-point agenda to improve Kenya’s governance. This agenda is an outcome of a dialogue that involved long-time politicians. It was an outcome of President William Ruto’s political desperation and Odinga’s opportunistic nature in the aftermath of the June 25, 2024, mass protests.

Kenya would not be on a race to the bottomless pit had the Ruto administration implemented its promises after the 2022 elections and 2024 protests. Ruto attempted to dialogue with the people, a rare show of humility from him. But to him, these were brilliant moments to hoodwink the public. After all, his promises to address high taxation, an odious public debt, cut wastage of public resources, and completely reshuffle the presidential appointees, among others, have never been implemented. Would you want to dialogue with people who feel shortchanged and lied to?

Odinga should instead lead his party, ODM, to resign from the mongrel broad-based government. It is easier for him to also consider calling Ruto and insisting on the implementation of the 10-point agenda.

The former prime minister has perfected Law 25 of the 48 Laws of Power by recreating himself each time his relevance appears to hit a dead end. While he has mastered the Machiavellian script of pursuing power, I am afraid his moves on the national political chessboard may not be effective this time.

Anything great or mighty, including powerful personalities and institutions that are sometimes perceived as immortal, has its end. Greatness is a factor of time, and time changes, and people move on. History is replete with such examples.

Most of these mighty entities usually collapse because of internal contradictions, greed, arrogance, overestimation of their outdated strategies/tactics, and not heeding the evolving demands of time. The architects of the broad-based government are facing a generation of young Kenyans who are relatively well-exposed, educated, and courageous. They are also facing a public that is delusional and hopeless of vague promises.

National dialogues have barely benefited the people in Kenya, given the multiple times we’ve had them. Interestingly enough, the first point of the 10-point agenda is the full implementation of the NADCO report. NADCO is an abbreviation for National Dialogue Committee, a team that comprised members of the ruling coalition and the opposition to address political and economic governance.

NADCO came a few years after another amorphous national dialogue initiative: the Building Bridges Initiative (BBI). While the courts quashed the BBI-driven attempts for a referendum, Odinga largely achieved his aim of enjoying political power without responsibility.

From a political strategy view, the BBI was Uhuru Kenyatta’s stroke to exercise his powers by limiting sabotage by his then-deputy, Ruto. But it was a miscalculation by Odinga. Ruto successfully linked Odinga with the failures of an administration he was the second in command. And Odinga’s lazy and disorganised presidential election campaigns did not remedy the situation.

Our Constitution is an outcome of a political dialogue held after Mwai Kibaki rigged the votes in the 2007 elections. This is perhaps one of the diligent results from numerous dialogues in the last six decades. But if we consider the bigger picture, the people, especially victims of the post-election violence, rarely benefited from the dialogue.

The political class deliberately objected to the implementation of the report by the Truth, Justice, and Reconciliation Commission (TJRC). With hindsight, it was far-fetched to entrust a compromised and non-progressive political class to implement the TJRC’s recommendations.

The TJRC submitted its report to Uhuru Kenyatta in May 2013. Uhuru and Ruto were then facing charges of crimes against humanity at the International Criminal Court. Furthermore, these are politicians whose political and biological roots are entangled in historical injustices committed by the Jomo Kenyatta, Moi, and Kibaki regimes. This indicates why it is hard to expect tangible progress from establishment politicians.

A good example of another dialogue is the Ndung’u Land Commission in 2003. Unfortunately, but not shockingly, its report has never been implemented. Again, expect nothing from a political class that is a purveyor of corruption.

National dialogues are meaningless. These are resource-wasting ventures by the establishment. Why should we have a national dialogue when we have an administration that is tone-deaf, arrogant, and casts itself as an enemy of the people? Dialogue with an administration obsessed with killing, maiming, and abducting people without shame? Dialogue with an administration that is incompetent and good at nothing?

Constitutionalism and meritocracy are the primary pillars to transform Kenya. If the current and future administrations stick to the Constitution, corruption, unwarranted high public debt, high taxation, unaffordable education, poor housing, and high-cost healthcare will be eradicated. Our Constitution is the answer to all our governance challenges and not caricatured dialogues.

The writer, Sitati Wasilwa, speaks and writes on political and economic governance. Contact: sitatiwasilwa.sw@gmail.com.

July 17, 2025 0

June 25: Reflections on an Unfinished People’s Revolution

June 25, 2024, shaped Kenya’s present and future. I refer to it as Kenya’s great political reset. The aftermath of the events of this date portrays a political class that is not ready for change. The top brass of the Kenya Kwanza administration remains defiantly arrogant, corrupt, dismissive, but still cannot implement measures to improve the lives of Kenyans.

This bunch of gluttonous politicians and wheeler-dealers fails to recognise its failures and acknowledge the need for a holistic, generational change. We certainly need to do better as a country, 62 years after independence.

But independence has all along been a charade. Apart from powerful neocolonial forces, the Kenyan political establishment cherishes colonial attitudes and institutions. Our political class is worse than the British colonialists. Sometimes I think of how the world could have been a terrible place had Kenyans colonised several territories. I mean, the Kenyan political establishment lacks the passion to put in place systems that work.

I do not mean to excuse European colonialism. It was unjustified. Since it happened, comparisons and contrasts can be drawn. In 2023, I read a controversial opinion article titled “What is Uganda’s Problem?” in the Daily Monitor newspaper. The writer, Timothy Kalyegira, argues that colonialists established functional institutions and had a good work ethic. He chides post-colonial governments in Uganda, Kenya, and Tanzania for not matching the colonialists’ work ethic and institutions.

Fundamentally, I agree with Kalyegira’s thoughts in the article. There is no justification for the existence of broken systems that deprive citizens high quality public goods and services.

One could argue that the post-colonial politicians in the region inherited extractive political and economic institutions. Sounds fine. But they loudly pontificate development blueprints and slogans, intentionally bypassing the urgency for institutional reforms.

The William Ruto administration, at some point, was obsessed with transforming Kenya into the Singapore of Africa. Never mind that this hallucinatory obsession is aimed at justifying the warped housing levy and affordable housing policy.

Economic history indicates that Kenya and Singapore were almost at par on several economic growth and development indicators in the 1960s and 1970s. For instance, Kenya’s GDP was USD 926.6 million, while Singapore’s was USD 917.2 million in 1963. Presently, Kenya and Singapore are worlds apart.

Where did we lose the plot? In some of my articles, I have referenced Professor Anyang’ Nyong’o’s book, “A Leap Into the Future,” detailing answers to this question. Nyong’o highlights an encounter with Singapore’s founding father, Lee Kuan Yew, in the 1990s. Kuan Yew referred to the assassination of Tom Mboya as having dragged Kenya backward when Singapore chose to go forward.

He may have symbolically brought up Mboya’s assassination. The bigger picture is the dismissal of the intentional nation-building and institutional development through meritocracy. Kenya’s political establishment passionately hates meritocracy.

While Kuan Yew’s Singapore identified Meritocracy, Pragmatism, and Honesty (MPH) as the pathway for socioeconomic development, Kenya’s political class religiously embraced corruption, lack of merit, and despised work ethic. Kenya appears to be worsening.

The Ethics and Anti-Corruption Commission (EACC) remains a moribund institution. Its notable achievements are name changes. The amendment of the Prevention of Corruption Act in 1997 paved the way for the establishment of the Kenya Anti-Corruption Authority. This was an outcome of key reforms undertaken by the Daniel Moi administration to restore foreign aid. The Kenya Anti-Corruption Commission was established in 2003, and later the EACC in 2011.

No substantial prosecutions of high-profile politicians and wheeler-dealers have occurred in the last 30 years. Corruption is rampant under the current administration, and this was one of the key issues raised by Kenyans in 2024 during the demonstrations. Nothing has changed, no lessons learnt.

The Kenya Kwanza regime believes you can overtax a country to prosperity. We have the habit of blaming the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) for imposing policies that lead to inequality. Historically, there is solid evidence linking the neoliberal Washington Consensus policies to unequal development in Africa.

But our governments ought to be blamed more. Kenya lacks leaders, visionaries, and thinkers at the centre of power. Meaningful economic development cannot be achieved without dedicated intellectualism in the Executive and Legislature.

Kenya is a victim of the Structural Adjustment Policies (SAPs) championed by the Bretton Woods institutions. The victimhood dates back to the 1990s. The education and health sectors were severely affected by SAPs. We find ourselves in similar situations where massive spending cuts threaten access to affordable education and healthcare. Any country with visionary leaders would not be experiencing this.

The future of Kenya is gloomy. We are back in the times when education, especially higher education, was a privilege of those who could afford to pay fees. Fundraisers for hospital bills have increased, while the regime insists that the Social Health Insurance Fund (SHIF) is working efficiently. We must not forget KES 104 billion was spent on the transition from the National Hospital Insurance Fund (NHIF) to SHIF.

Overtaxation cannot lead to socioeconomic prosperity. Let’s forget about socioeconomic prosperity for now; you cannot overtax economic agents strained by a high cost of living and unemployment. The June 25, 2024, protests were a platform for the citizens to remind the incompetent Kenya Kwanza regime about the folliness of overtaxation.

We are constantly reminded by the establishment that we must pay taxes to achieve economic independence. They also tell us that we are not overtaxed, unlike other countries. This dangerous thinking always draws comparisons between Kenya and developed economies and not other peer countries. Kenyans may not have a problem with high taxes, provided that these efforts are reciprocated with the provision of affordable and high quality public goods and services.

Vision 2030, like many other wonderfully drafted socioeconomic Sessional Papers, will never be attained in totality. This blueprint envisioned the manufacturing sector as a key driver for transforming Kenya into a globally competitive, middle-income economy. It targeted the manufacturing sector to contribute 20% to the economy’s GDP and create one million jobs yearly. This remains a pipe dream.

Policymakers have shown little concern that high taxes and an unpredictable tax regime are strangling the manufacturing sector. Yet, they go around the country on the rooftops of top-of-the-range cars like snake oil merchants, showing little concern for the stagnated growth of the sector.

Let’s get it right; you cannot cheat yourself into robust socioeconomic development. Failing to formulate relevant policies to spur the manufacturing sector means we will barely create meaningful and sustainable jobs in Kenya. This also applies to other African countries.

Nearly all developed and fast-developing economies established robust manufacturing sectors. Ours has hardly contributed more than 10% to the GDP in the last 10 years. The frustrations of Kenyans, particularly the youth, arise from unemployment and underemployment. Yet, the regime’s honchos overburden these vulnerable humans with taxes without creating sustainable jobs.

It is laughable that the Ruto administration talks big about exporting labour as a job creation mechanism. This is hogwash. In addition, we have seen this regime countless times purporting to facilitate the creation of jobs through the digital economy. Not sure why this barely comes up nowadays.

This rogue regime does not understand the dignity of decent jobs. It has no comprehension of the dangers of idle, educated youth. Again, you cannot cheat your way into development. There are no miracles and shortcuts to attaining meaningful socioeconomic development.

What is the essence of this irredeemable obsession with increasing taxes yearly? Conventional economic thinking indicates that a country struggling with a huge public debt considers the following economic policies: spending cuts, tax increases, structural reforms, investing in infrastructure, and debt restructuring and forgiveness.

In the aftermath of the June 25, 2024, youth-led protests, the Ruto administration committed to auditing the public debt. Nothing tangible has been heard or seen since. Borrowing is on an upward trajectory. Tax increases are prevalent. The political class ensured that such increases are masked in a jargon-heavy and technical 2025/26 Budget Policy Statement (BPS) and 2025 Finance Bill.

Spending cuts are skewed. In the 2025/26 BPS, the security budget was increased by 17%, while the education budget was reduced by 18%. State House and state lodges are under constant construction and renovation. How urgent are these works? It is a problem to have a regime allocating over KES 11 billion for renovating and constructing buildings that do not add value to Kenyans. These are conduits for siphoning public resources. The Executive and Parliament waste so much money traveling within and out of the country to attend useless events.

The increase in the security budget is not surprising. This regime is paranoid and hellbent on creating a totalitarian state. The paranoia emanated from last year’s protests. The regime’s leadership never believed organic protests could break out. State-sanctioned abductions, enforced disappearances, extra-judicial killings, and threats are outcomes of a cowardly political leadership not ready to embrace accountability.

Kenya’s political establishment has another bad obsession: the need to control social media. On one hand, the political class dismisses social media government criticism. On the other hand, it craves controlling social media to limit free speech. Part of the increase in the security budget is the allocation of KES 150 million to the Directorate of Criminal Investigations (DCI) to purchase a system to track social media. This worries me a lot. It means more abductions, disappearances, and extra-judicial killings. But the more these issues persist, the more defiant the people become.

Ruto and his cabal are poor students of history. And the president is on record dismissing history. They should take time and study regime changes caused by popular uprisings. Burkina Faso in 2014, Sudan in 2019, Egypt in 2011, and Czechoslovakia in 1989, among others.

Commonsensically, you’d expect the National Intelligence Service (NIS) to consider such basic epochs. But the NIS is highly politicised under the Kenya Kwanza regime. The previous director generals of the NIS were more professional and polished. At the moment, this institution is a circus. This is the first time its director general has appeared in public forums multiple times, not to contribute anything meaningful to enhance nation-building, but to threaten the regime’s dissidents and call for the regulation of social media.

June 25, 2024, was a major political reset in Kenya’s history. It forced an unpopular president to reach out to a once-popular opposition leader and former Prime Minister Raila Odinga for political survival. This formally resulted in the formation of the so-called broad-based government.

William Ruto and his people do not get it; incorporating Odinga in the government is not equal to addressing the concerns of Kenyans. This mongrel government is a similar government formation Ruto vehemently criticised between 2018 and 2022, when Odinga and then-President Uhuru Kenyatta reached an MoU to form an inclusive government.

Such government arrangements are unconstitutional. With last year’s great political reset, we have demystified the cult of Odinga. The people no longer need him to call for protests. And he disgraced his pro-democracy credentials when he opted to support a rogue, incompetent regime. The majority of young people of my generation and the generations that come after will remember Odinga as a scheming, calculative opportunist, and not a champion for democracy.

Will the victims and their families get justice from the state following the attack on citizens on and after June 25, 2024? This is unlikely. But the arc of justice is long and swings slowly. However long it takes, justice will be served once this regime is voted out of power.

The writer, Sitati Wasilwa, speaks and writes on politics, governance, political economy, public policy, geopolitics, and armed conflict. Contact sitatiwasilwa.sw@gmail.com.

June 24, 2025 0

Kenyan Leaders Owe Us Insightful Autobiographies

I wrote this article after reflecting on some of the Kenyan autobiographies I have read, some recently. Autobiographies, in the case of Kenya, are mostly written in a person’s sunset years. This is usually after retirement from a high-profile public life.

Overall, I have read a good number of autobiographies and biographies in my adult life. I found some compelling and insightful. Others turned out average, and disappointingly, some do not measure up for a second reading or recommendation to someone else to read.

The first book I read in January 2025 was Francis Ole Kaparo’s memoir, Calming the Storms. This book by Kenya’s second-longest serving Speaker of the National Assembly did not match my expectations. Kenyan libraries, publishers, and readers need to do some soul-searching and write brutally honest book reviews before books get to the shelves.

Kaparo stands out as one of Kenya’s best parliamentary speakers alongside his successor Kenneth Marende. The bar has since fallen so low in the post-Kaparo and post-Marende eras. Despite their respective memberships to their parent political parties KANU and ODM, Kaparo and Marende were largely impartial when presiding over parliamentary business.

This is unlike the bias demonstrated by their successors. I detest President William Ruto’s remarks labelling Justin Muturi as fairly incompetent during his tenure as the Attorney General. Is there any state officer who demonstrates incompetence than William Ruto? Anyway, Muturi was quite incompetent as a Speaker of the National Assembly. He was tyrannical and unprofessional. He subverted the principle of separation of powers as envisaged in the Constitution; Muturi permitted the Executive’s control over the Legislature.

Muturi’s successor and university mate, Moses Wetang’ula, has so far treated us to sycophantic and unconstitutional fits at the National Assembly. Wetang’ula first declared the minority Kenya Kwanza as the majority coalition party instead of the Azimio La Umoja following his election as Speaker. He still maintained this snobbish stance after the courts ruled against his decision! What’s even more unappealing constitutionally is the fact that Wetang’ula serves as the leader of the now-weak FORD Kenya party. You want to know how competent a Kenyan politician is? Do not look any further than the party he or she leads. FORD Kenya under Wetang’ula has fast regressed to a political outfit that cannot win any seats beyond the Bukusu-dominated counties of Bungoma and Trans-Nzoia.

The 2013-2017 Senate Speaker Ekwee Ethuro was a supremely uninspiring figure. His temperament was measured but there is little to write home about any heroic accolades attributed to his leadership in the Senate. His successor, Ken Lusaka, was a mark-timer who treated the speakership as a strategic retreat before seeking to recapture the Bungoma gubernatorial seat. Lusaka’s successor, Amason Kingi, is too superficial and this reflects in his leadership.

Kaparo’s autobiography is quite generic. It is more of a life history text or some extensive eulogy with the author not deeply dissecting historical events that readers would be intrigued to read. First, there are numerous grammatical and factual errors in the book. The author may not have done sufficient proofreading. The second and third parties he may have engaged for editorial and proofreading roles probably did so little to catch these errors. I’m not sure if they were motivated enough or were out to soothe Kaparo’s ego.

A current or former high-profile public figure or state officer deserves to go beyond the usual life history accounts when penning an autobiography. An autobiography is a grand opportunity to strongly project one’s philosophical beliefs and write successes and regrets memorably.

Regrettably, Kaparo’s explanations of critical historical junctures are relatively short and generic and do not offer any new information or perspective. Politicians or high-profile personalities who have been in political corridors should first think of bringing out unknown details or new perspectives when working on their autobiographies. They need to understand that Kenya’s history is patched up and this is a gap they should seek to fill.

Kaparo had a glorious opportunity to give readers and historians tangible stuff in chapters six, seven, eight, and ten. In chapter six, Kaparo reflects on his decision to contest for the speakership. He also uncovers the 1991 KANU conference in which former President Daniel Moi went against the wishes of the delegates to repeal Section 2A of the Constitution. Why would Kaparo squeeze the details of such important historical events into five to six pages?

I admire Oginga Odinga’s and Raila Odinga’s autobiographies save for the latter’s back-handed undemocratic political arrangements with ruling parties and coalitions. In Not Yet Uhuru, Oginga Odinga takes his time to thoroughly reflect and write on historical events, particularly the struggle for independence and the post-colonial era poor governance.

Not Yet Uhuru enriches Kenya’s historical discourse and literature. One reads it and certainly feels compelled to constantly reference it. Raila Odinga’s, The Flame of Freedom, is immaculate. Developments related to the post-Kenyatta era, the 1982 coup attempt, the fight for the Second Liberation, the multiparty era, the NARC years, the 2005 referendum, the post-election violence, and the Grand Coalition Government are comprehensively written.

Kaparo is either mean with words, economical with the truth, or he was perhaps ostracised by the deep state not to have much information on the historical events he attempts to write about. Chapter six would be rich and engrossing had Kaparo documented the unknown intrigues during his time as Speaker and the struggle leading to the re-introduction of multipartyism. Chapter seven is not worth reading. It is a complete waste of time. Chapter eight is also underwhelming. Fifteen pages are too few as so much happened between 2002 and 2007.

In chapter ten, Kaparo writes about the founding and his chairmanship of the URP party led by William Ruto from around 2012 to 2017. Kaparo’s claims on what led to the formation of URP are quite ridiculous. He purports that URP’s founders were motivated by the need to field candidates countrywide and present it as a national party. He goes ahead to chide parties such as ODM, Wiper, FORD Kenya, FORD Asili, FORD People, and the Democratic Party for being ethnic-based outfits. Kaparo selectively sidesteps the fact that URP was formed to bring together the interests of the so-called pastoralist and Nilotic ethnic groups. URP’s ethnic base was among the Kalenjins and ethnic communities in the North Eastern region.

What’s more, Kaparo grandiosely claims that only KANU had a national appeal. This demonstrates his lack of appreciation of historical facts. What contributed to KANU having a nationwide presence? The events of August 1, 1982, transformed Moi from a somewhat humble and despised politician to a ruthless, authoritarian, paranoid one. A consequence of Moi’s insecurities and paranoia was the declaration of Kenya as a single-party state de jure (by law). Kaparo overlooks this in his criticism of the aforementioned parties as tribal outfits. Facts are stubborn; ODM had a much more nationwide presence compared to URP.

There are several half-witted, misrepresented, and outrageous arguments written by Kaparo in his memoirs. His argument for settling on the name of the URP party, especially the word “republican” (URP stands for United Republican Party), took me aback. According to Kaparo, URP founders were driven by the ambition to defeat the formation of a federalist (majimbo) system of government in Kenya. Mark you this was around two years after the promulgation of the 2010 Constitution that institutionalised devolution and not federalism.

Kaparo goes ahead noting that the URP founders were worried about the introduction of socialism and communism in Kenya through the backdoor. This is extremely superficial and denotes a lack of intellectual wherewithal. Kaparo posits that the URP founders were uneasy about the Kenyan version of federalists merging American federalism with aspects of the former USSR’s governance, hence his unfounded claims on communism and socialism.

I squirmed while reading this bit and felt I had enough of such half-witted reflections from Kaparo. During the Cold War, there were attempts by the USSR just like the US to strengthen geostrategic interests in Kenya. But I think communism and socialism innuendos in Kenya are exaggerated. These were the outcomes of propaganda linked to the British and American governments and press after independence. One can easily conclude that URP was not in favour of the implementation of the 2010 Constitution. And you do not need to look far with its leader, William Ruto, having led campaigns against it prior to the 2010 referendum. So, we should not be surprised by the performance of the Ruto-led administration.

Leaders should give us compelling autobiographies that would significantly contribute to Kenya’s knowledge base. This is not limited to politicians. We have leaders in different sectors or areas; business, not-for-profits, security and defence, sports, and education among others.

I have had enough of reading sub-par books from personalities widely exposed in different sectors in Kenya. Kaparo’s Calming the Storms reminds me of Lee Njiru’s President’s Pressman. Lots of grammatical errors and superficial documentation of historical events. Njiru would rather not have written his memoirs.

And I will not fall short of expressing my displeasure against public figures who have retired, about to retire, or died without writing autobiographies. Mwai Kibaki, Kijana Wamalwa, George Saitoti, and other high-profile politicians and non-political personalities who died without penning autobiographies failed Kenya. Autobiographies should not be post-retirement adventures. I hope to soon read some good ones from individuals I consider influential in my life. But they are showing little to no effort!

Sitati Wasilwa is a geopolitical and governance analyst.

April 2, 2025 0

Hosting Sudan’s RSF Armed Group Highlights Kenya’s Geostrategic Dilemma

On February 17, 2025, I found information on X (Twitter) indicating the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) and its allies intending to hold a meeting in Nairobi. The meeting’s objective was to ratify agreements leading to the formation of the so-called Government of Peace and Unity (GPU). This is a parallel government rivaling an inclusive one, soon-to-be established by the RSF’s antagonist, the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF).

The RSF’s plans to form a government in the territories it controls. This is amid the paramilitary group losing huge chunks of its controlled areas to the SAF over the last two months. The RSF’s GPU is perhaps a strategy to delegitimise an SAF-led government, or to heighten the stakes of ceasefire negotiations with the hope of getting a significant share of a transitional government. Recall that the RSF wielded political and military power as a principal partner in the transitional government before the commencement of the war in April 2015.

Hosting the RSF indicates the wicky-wacky nature of Kenya’s foreign policy under the William Ruto administration. This is yet another diplomatic misstep committed by the Ruto administration. A year ago, Nairobi rolled out a red carpet for the RSF leader Hemedti Dagalo. This was later followed by the Sudanese government rejecting President Ruto’s nomination by the Inter-Governmental Authority on Development (IGAD) in June 2024 to lead ceasefire negotiations. Nonetheless, Nairobi plays to the whims of the RSF. In January this year, the RSF canceled a press conference in Nairobi at the eleventh hour. No reasons were given but it could have been due to the successful SAF offensive against it.

The reputation of Ruto’s administration in its foreign policy engagements is disastrous. This regime’s projection of Kenya’s geostrategic interests is half-witted, erratic, sketchy, and lacks strategic depth. From a Machiavellian sense, Ruto’s administration could be justified to pursue its interests. Realistically, though, prevailing regional dynamics should be considered when the administration cuts opportunistic deals with genocide-committing armed groups such as the RSF.

It is not sensible to host an armed group perpetrating crimes against humanity in Sudan by targeting civilians. The RSF has its origins in the Darfur War that lasted almost two decades. The killing of around 100 protesters and injuring 500 others by the RSF in June 2019 during anti-government protests is one of the group’s high-profile human rights violations. In October 2024, around 433 civilians were killed by the RSF in the Alseriha locality in Al-Jazirah (Gezira) State. Over 200 civilians were killed by the RSF in the Al-Kadaris and Al-Khalwat localities in White Nile State from February 15 to February 17, 2025. These are few examples. Hundreds of civilians have been killed and thousands injured by the RSF in other areas in Sudan since the war broke out.

Geostrategic Interests Dictating the RSF-Nairobi Relations

Why is Nairobi becoming a second home to the RSF? Well, Kenya has historically played similar roles to warring factions from Uganda, Rwanda, Sudan (before the south seceded), South Sudan, and Somalia. While these historical events cannot be ignored, it is critical to understand the context of the relations between the RSF and the Ruto-led administration. First, the UAE supports the RSF financially and militarily though it denies doing so. This aid is mostly disbursed through proxies in Chad, Libya, the Central African Republic, and Uganda.

The Ruto administration has lately been courting the UAE for financial and technical support for critical infrastructure projects. The Kenyan government recently signed an agreement with the Emirati Al-Dahra agribusiness firm to develop the Galana-Kulalu Food Security Project. The Emirati royal family is a major owner of Al-Dahra. In January this year, Kenya and the UAE commenced discussions for the latter to avail finances to extend the Chinese-built standard gauge railway to Uganda and South Sudan. In mid-January this year, Kenya and the UAE signed the Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA). This CEPA seeks to enhance trade, investment, and economic cooperation between the two countries.

The bigger picture of the UAE’s increasing influence in Kenya is Abu Dhabi’s expanding geostrategic footprints in Africa. While most geopolitical and geoeconomic commentaries and analyses focus on China, the US, and Russia in Africa, little attention is paid to the UAE. The UAE is currently Africa’s largest development partner and investor with Emirati companies committing USD 100 billion for projects between 2019 and 2023.

Emirati companies, especially DP World and Abu Dhabi Ports have massively invested in seaports and dry ports in Tanzania, Rwanda, Somaliland, Mozambique, Madagascar, Sudan, Angola, the Congo Republic, Ghana, Guinea, and Senegal. Emirati firms have also set up or are establishing special economic zones in Somaliland and Namibia. The UAE is also a leading investor in renewable energy having invested around USD 9 billion over the last ten years.

The UAE’s geopolitical and geoeconomic engagements align with its interests of enhancing maritime security in the Red Sea and the Indian Ocean. The ports in Berbera (Somaliland), Bosaso (Somaliland), Dar-es-Salaam (Tanzania), and Maputo (Mozambique) are promoting the UAE’s maritime security objectives. The proposed ports of Abu Amama (Sudan) and Nacala (Mozambique) will further enhance the UAE’s maritime security ambitions.

Additionally, the UAE’s support for the DRC government against the M23 rebels, the RSF in Sudan, and the General Khalifa Haftar-led armed groups in Libya project Abu Dhabi’s broader security and geostrategic interests.

Rent-seeking motives by Kenya’s political and economic establishment could also be a primary factor underlining relations between the RSF and the Ruto-led administration. The RSF controls several gold mines in Sudan and the proceeds finance the group’s operations. Money laundering is common in wartime and Sudan is no exception. Part of the money laundering proceeds could be having channels in Kenya.

Kenya’s Foreign Policy: A Fork in the Road

Ruto’s administration has made multiple foreign policy missteps, including maintaining relations with the RSF. Others include deploying police officers to Haiti under the Multi-national Security Support Mission, hosting the M23-led Congo River Alliance, supporting Israel at the beginning of the Israel-Hamas war, engaging French President Emmanuel Macron following the fall of Goma to the M23 rebels, and withdrawing the recognition of the Sahrawi Arab Republic among others.

These diplomatic gaffes are outcomes of rewarding failed and uneventful career politicians as well as inexperienced professionals with appointments in the foreign affairs docket. Prime Cabinet Secretary Musalia Mudavadi, who doubles up as the Cabinet Secretary for Foreign and Diaspora Affairs, has been an average performer in the ministries he has led since his first appointment in 1988. His predecessor, Alfred Mutua, is well-known for his publicity stunts than high performance. The Principal Secretary for Foreign Affairs Korir Sing’oei is a human rights lawyer with no meaningful professional and academic experience in diplomacy, international relations, and geopolitics.

Raila Odinga’s recent loss of the African Union Commission Chairperson election to Djibouti’s long-time Foreign Minister Mahmoud Youssef is a reminder of Kenya’s lackluster foreign policy. The fact that Kenya has lost this election twice in the last eight years demonstrates the lack of strategic depth by Nairobi in its diplomatic engagements. It is a habit of Kenyan presidents to appoint political failures as high-ranking officials and ambassadors in the Foreign Ministry. Career diplomats and highly qualified Kenyans are overlooked.

Kenya’s official foreign policy document first published in 2014 and revised in 2024 is uninspiring and uneventful. It is too generic and does not demonstrate any intellectual knack or pragmatic ambitions. It passes for any time-wasting write-up and is not fit to drive the republic’s 21^st century aspirations and power projections to confront present and future geopolitical challenges. Time is ripe to rip apart Kenya’s foreign policy and reconstruct it. But this is unlikely under the current government.

The writer, Sitati Wasilwa, is a geopolitical and governance analyst.

February 18, 2025 0

A Post-Ruto Kenya is Taking Shape, and Quite Fast!

Kenya under President William Ruto is a blueprint of how leaders fail and fail fast. Transformational leadership is not a cup of tea for any Tom, Dick, or Harry, nor is it for any Mary, Juliet, or Angela. Ruto has chosen to literally fail. His two-year old administration has demystified the genius and politically smart tags associated with him for a long time.

Ruto severally coveted and referenced Kibakinomics during the election campaigns and shortly after taking office. The late President Mwai Kibaki attempted to transform Kenya, but he largely failed. Corruption, tribalism, and vote rigging flourished under his watch. And the fact that a significant number of Kenyans identify Kibaki with some semblance of transformation indicates our low leadership standards as a country. Anyway, Ruto’s reference to Kibakinomics was motivated by his desire to revamp the Kenyan economy in light of the abysmal trajectory engineered by the UhuRuto administration.

Well, the UhuRuto administration was incompetent in economic management. This was manifested by unnecessary pile ups of public debt, of which a significant portion went into the wrong hands. Look at the Eurobond fiasco; the UhuRuto administration could not account for the 2014 USD 2.8 billion Eurobond. Switch lanes and consider the borrowing spree of the UhuRuto administration. Public debt spiraled upwards by around 353% from KES 1.89 trillion in 2013 to KES 8.56 trillion in 2022. The COVID-19 pandemic worsened the economic situation. Approximately 1.72 million workers lost their jobs between April and June 2020. Another 740,000 Kenyans lost their jobs in 2021.

This was a perfect moment for the UhuRuto administration to turn to the IMF and the World Bank to resuscitate the economy. Obviously, the Bretton Woods institutions never lend money without conditions. Kenya has since remained hooked to the IMF, with the latter prescribing unrealistic and theoretical economic policies to boost the economy post-COVID and under the Ruto administration.

Leaders first embark on the route to failure by deliberately not structuring a competent team to deliver their vision. A basic rule in organisational transformation is crafting a highly competent team. Getting the right people for the right job simplifies issues, whether in a bureaucratic setup or lean teams. Ruto has failed on this. Recall his first Cabinet; hard to point out any man or woman with an unmatched work ethic and elite professionalism in it. His second Cabinet is still subpar. People in pursuit of power and success often refer to the Machiavellian power book, but one thing they rarely pay attention to or ignore is the centrality of a competent team. According to Machiavelli, a leader’s intelligence is estimated by the people he surrounds himself with. Therefore, we can use this rulebook to judge and rank Ruto’s merit as a leader.

Succeeding as a leader is relatively easy if you listen to people. Ruto excels at this during elections. He listened to his presidential campaign think-tank when running for office in 2022. He equally listened to his allies and the on-ground voices when campaigning. It is baffling when he fails to pay attention to what people have said in the course of his presidency. Perhaps he believes having won the presidency at the first attempt makes him a genius. Wrong! He is not. He only capitalised on Raila Odinga’s disorganisation and complacency. Ruto has a bloated team of advisers who are perfect courtiers and typical jesters. Just a bunch of hangers-on.

On a few occasions, Kenya Kwanza-affiliated parliamentarians warned Ruto of growing hostility against his leadership due to the high cost of living. Such warnings dominated a Kenya Kwanza parliamentary group meeting in November 2023. The MPs informed him of the public’s displeasure with the withdrawal of fuel subsidies, and retrogressive taxation, among other unwelcome socioeconomic policies. Similar warnings were repeated at another meeting in February this year. Ruto chose to dismiss them.

Public heckling against Ruto and other Kenya Kwanza leaders gained momentum at the end of 2023 and the better part of this year before the pro-good governance mass protests. Ruto appeared surprised by the demonstrations, which, if he was keen enough and not blinded by hubris, would have prevented them. And even in the aftermath of the protests, he embraced time-wasting ventures instead of attempting to turn around his failures.

The public’s rejection of the IMF-initiated, controversial, punitive, and unpopular 2024 Finance Bill was a vote of no confidence against the Kenya Kwanza administration. His coalition partner and Prime Cabinet Secretary Musalia Mudavadi is on record having stated that the bill’s withdrawal would be a vote of no confidence against the government.

I am yet to see a government that works so hard to become unpopular. Kenya Kwanza offers a good template for this. The scheme to impeach Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua is another clear vote of no confidence against Ruto’s presidency. The public participation exercises showed disaffection against the most incompetent government in Kenya since independence…no, since the colonial era. The writing is on the wall; Ruto will be a one-term president.

So, what awaits a post-Ruto Kenya? This may sound premature than the process leading to this eventuality. The unity of purpose of like-minded forces is imperative. The majority is clearly anti-Ruto, and this should now transition from mobilisation to organisation. Mass and voluntary civic education should be prioritised by like-minded entities. Ideologically disciplined parties and coalitions should be established. These need to reflect a break from Kenya’s unprogressive political party culture, where parties are personality-based and devoid of institutionalism. Public scrutiny and pressure should be sustained against the political establishment, including the Kenya Kwanza leadership. Any proposed laws or amendments or policies must be subject to proper public participation. We are past the years of Odinga, Kalonzo, and the long-time political establishment. We need a new crop of devoted, fresh-thinking political leaders to take Kenya to the next level.

A post-Ruto Kenya should be a society that absolutely adheres to the Constitution. Chapter Six on Leadership and Integrity must be enforced. Fighting against and stamping out corruption has to be the main objective of the government and the public in a post-Ruto Kenya. It must be a republic where there are no shady commercial deals and all agreements involving development projects must be disclosed to the public. Details of the public debt and all procured loans must be publicised in a post-Ruto Kenya. Independence of the arms of government must be respected in a post-Ruto Kenya. A post-Ruto Kenya should pursue economic independence and stop the parasitic relationship with the IMF and other creditors. Public education and healthcare must be free in a post-Ruto Kenya. The youth must be at the centre of decision-making in a post-Ruto Kenya. The political leadership must work for the people in a post-Ruto Kenya.

Sitati Wasilwa writes and speaks on geopolitics and governance.

October 7, 2024 0

General F. O. Ogolla: A Farewell through the Lenses

Life is fickle! General Francis Omondi Ogolla seemed to have come to terms with human mortality. Last year at a church service, General Ogolla said, “In my military life, I have come to learn the reality of human mortality. I have appreciated that life is finite, humans are mortal, and life is short. One morning, you are with a healthy colleague. The next minute he is ashes and gone.” Sounds like a premonition!

April 18, 2024, will forever be etched in Kenya’s history. The death of the Chief of the Defence Forces (CDF) of the Republic of Kenya, General Francis Omondi Ogolla, the first for a sitting military chief in the country, is historical. General Ogolla’s appointment itself was historical; he was the first CDF from the Luo ethnic group. Then again, the Luos have endured painful moments in Kenya’s history with the controversial deaths of high-profile, promising, and ambitious figures. Tom Mboya and Robert Ouko are revered in death as they were in life.

One could definitely argue that Mboya was not a Luo proper; originally, he was from the Abasuba ethnic group. Nonetheless, the Abasuba are culturally assimilated by the Luo. Anyway, Mboya, Ouko, and Ogolla could have been cut from different clothes, but these were polished and suave gentlemen. Mboya stands out as the most brilliant politician in Kenya’s history. He was outstanding given his achievements for the 39 years he lived. He is the type of human who perhaps appears once every 100 years. This is how legendary musician Sam Mangwana described his compatriot and king of Rhumba, the Congo Colossus, and Grand Master Franco Luambo Makiadi.

Ouko, an affable, charismatic, and charming personality just like Mboya, could possibly have emerged as a key player on the national political scene. Ogolla may have enjoyed the privilege of breathing his last while at the peak of his military career. Mboya and Ouko were hardly at the peak of their political careers when they were assassinated.

General Ogolla’s death has certainly evoked these memories. Wild speculations are rife on whether his death was pre-planned or otherwise. I am tempted to avoid this debate, but I will certainly join the bandwagon. The circumstances surrounding Ogolla’s death are suspicious. There are claims that the aircraft initially scheduled to ferry the General was suddenly swapped at the last minute to transport a senior government official. This is unprofessional, at least if the claims are true.

Kenya has a notoriety for hero-worshipping senior government officials and politicians. This is no surprise for a country where politicians and their wheeler dealers prefer opulent lifestyles over intentional, goal-oriented policymaking and competent public service.

On April 2, 2015, during the Garissa University terrorist attack, a police aircraft that was to transport commandos to battle terrorists was used to fly the family of a senior police officer from holiday. In January last year, a high-cost, custom-made operational helicopter previously used for surveillance was upgraded and handed over to Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua for official and unofficial use. Quite absurd! There could be other similar instances.

Nonetheless, there are harsh realities that the Kenyan government must confront during and after investigations surrounding the helicopter crash that led to the General’s demise. Five military aircraft crashes in the last 12 months is a worrying trend the Kenya Defence Forces (KDF) and the government should address. This is a terrible record for a military that is highly respected regionally and globally for its professionalism. The Cabinet Secretary of Defence Aden Duale, escaped death by a whisker when a KDF military helicopter hit a tree and crashed while taking off in Turkana in July last year.

A comprehensive audit of the entire KDF aircraft unit for hardware and personnel should be carried out, and the results publicised. Similarly, the outcome of the investigations into the cause of the crash of the helicopter ferrying General Ogolla and other military officers should be made public. But the investigations could take a long time; rumours indicate probably between six and 12 months or more. Gone are the days of the government hiding behind the curtains and not publicly sharing so-called sensitive and confidential information. From a security standpoint, though, there are concerns about publicly availing such information. However, at least the Parliament should be briefed about these results.

General Ogolla had an amiable personality. He came across as having a cool, calm, and collected personality. His passion for physical fitness was easily seen. He was physically fit at 62 years old and consistently exercised in the morning at the Ulinzi Sports Complex. A KDF bulletin reiterates his philosophy on holistic health for military officers. Ogolla was outspoken about the role of physical fitness for military officers and its benefits in sustaining discipline and good, long-term health. As he remarked, “Fitness is important in any military in the world, and it keeps you stronger, healthier, and more versatile.”

Ogolla’s predecessor General Robert Kibochi, was also a fitness enthusiast. In an interview, Kibochi disclosed a plaque in his office that read, “I respect fit people.” These two were visibly fit and in good shape. A good number of their predecessors had unpleasant potbellies. Physical fitness is a hallmark of a disciplined soldier. This also applies to police officers. Comparatively, Kenyan military officers are in better shape than police officers. I naturally frown upon men and women in uniform who are physically unfit.

Leading by example is a trait that General Ogolla embraced. This is a critical lesson for those in leadership or aspiring to lead. I have interacted with, read about, and observed leaders. Unfortunately, a majority never leads from the front and is full of mediocrity, wimpishness, and incompetence. Ogolla died while literally leading from the front. His morning exercise routine occasionally alongside different military units reinforces Ogolla’s mantra to lead by example.

How best will Ogolla be remembered? For attempting to overturn the victory of William Ruto as president-elect in 2022, as he claimed? As the shortest serving military chief in Kenya’s history so far? As Kenya’s first CDF who died in office? As another high-profile personality whose death is likely to remain a mystery for ages? He was a remarkable husband and father, and a steadfast philanthropist in his community in Alego Usonga. I will remember him for the little things that made him outstanding.

Sitati Wasilwa is a geopolitical analyst with an interest in political economy, foreign policy, political risk, and armed conflict. He is passionate about leadership, strategy, and military-related issues.

April 20, 2024 0