How Not to Run a Country: Of the Dangerous Confidence of Demagogues

History is replete with examples of political leaders who are narcissistic, incompetent and have a penchant for demagoguery. Although such characters tend to be charismatic, they often create misery by suppressing fundamental rights and freedoms or barely achieve anything substantial while in office apart from occasional bluffing.

Such individuals include Pombe Magufuli, Donald Trump, Boris Johnson, Jair Bolsonaro and Narendra Modi among others. And the list is not just limited to politicians since we encounter such personalities in our daily lives.

But what makes such individuals appealing? Organizational psychologist, Tomas Chamorro-Premuzic notes that most incompetent people get to the top due to three reasons. Firstly, they are rewarded for their confidence with majority of the people confusing confidence for competence. Secondly, the love for charismatic individuals who tend to be entertaining or simply charming. Thirdly, the inability to resist the grandiose nature of narcissists fond of chest-thumping or regarding themselves as immortals and know-it-alls.

Tanzania’s president, Pombe Magufuli, has never been short of drama when making decisions. He began his tenure with so much gusto and was applauded in the manner which he dealt with the supposedly corrupt or lazy government bureaucrats and employees.

But his tenure is rife with cases of impunity, manifested through gagging of dissenting voices and making irrational decisions such as denying teenage mothers the opportunity to complete their education, a ruling which he recently reversed. His narcissism is also evident in the way he fires government employees without consideration for detailed information.

Donald Trump, Jair Bolsonaro and Boris Johnson behave more or less the same like the tin-pot despot from Tanzania. This trio of demagogues has clashed with senior officials in their administrations who’ve had to resign and some fired.

Even though politics demands that you dismiss courtiers who publicly defy a leader’s directions or collective agreements, the case is different with revered narcissists. They are usually dismissive of contributions from other team members and firmly but stupidly believe in the validity of their thoughts and decisions which often results in a chaotic work environment or country as well as failure to achieve the desired goals.

These demagogues fall short of traits such as competence, emotional intelligence, and the ability to have perspective which enable one to be a great leader as noted by Jonathan Powell in his book, “The New Machiavelli.”

The COVID-19 pandemic has laid bare the demagogues’ incompetence, lack of emotional intelligence and inability to have perspective while addressing the ongoing crisis.

Several heads of states and governments have failed to effectively address the pandemic but some like Magufuli, Trump, Bolsonaro, Modi and extensively Boris have been ridiculous in their approach and pronouncements.

Populist rhetoric by Trump, Magufuli and Bolsonaro are hinged on the need to seek for popularity as their countries prepare for elections. Tanzania is set to have a general election in October 2020 while the United States of America will have a presidential election in November this year. Brazil will hold its elections in 2022. For this bunch of demagogues, averting economic crises will secure them another term in office.

But what comes first, economic recovery or protective measures to slowdown the virus? While economic recovery is necessary, protective measures are more than necessary. Although lockdowns are economically destructive and not sustainable for poor economies like Tanzania’s, protective measures must be observed to contain the spread of COVID-19. However, Magufuli believes that the economy comes first and offers some valid justifications though other piety reasons, for instance, the eventual decline and cessation of church offerings demean his intellect.

Magufuli’s pious nature makes him believe that COVID-19 can be cured by prayers! To have a scientist and head of state making such dangerous statements reeks of incompetence and ignorance. That Tanzanian churches have to remain open in the wake of Coronavirus is simply Magufuli’s strategy to win support from a society obsessed with religion. But such is the language used by demagogues.

Trump has remained defiant on the need to open up the American economy, worst hit by the COVID-19 pandemic in the world. So far, more than 40 million Americans have filed for unemployment in the world’s most unequal and unsafest country. The pandemic has exposed America’s realities of mega inequality and the lie that is ‘American Exceptionalism.’

Recently, Trump ordered state governors to open places of worship amid opposition from some religious leaders who content that it is not the right decision. But Trump is obsessed with being reelected risking lives of ordinary Americans by encouraging them to stage protests against restrictions imposed by governors while he enjoys the benefits of belonging to the oligarchy. This is the epitome of class warfare.

Ignoring advice from experts and firing them is a script in the demagogues’ playbook. Richard Bright was fired by Trump after rejecting most of the unscientific claims made by his administration regarding Coronavirus. Dr. Anthony Fauci, Director of America’s National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, has clashed severally with Trump over issues such as the origin of Coronavirus, opening up of schools, and generally relaxing the safety measures put in place.

The clownish antics of Jair Bolsonaro cast him as a personality obsessed with power and not the welfare of the people. His presidency has poorly responded to the pandemic in terms of mitigating the economic and social crises occasioned by the COVID-19 scourge.

Bolsonaro has actively participated in the anti-lockdown protests demanding state governments to get rid of physical distancing and lockdown measures citing the threats of unemployment, hunger and misery. Under the leadership of Boris Johnson, the response to the pandemic has been less effective.

So, what is the best way to run a country? Heads of states and governments should learn to listen to professional advice and develop perspective on critical policy issues. Obsession with profits seems to drive political leaders but we need to come to terms with the reality that the economy is about people. We tend to disentangle people from the functioning of an economy. Ideally, economic policies need to fashion people over profits.

Voters also need to set the bar high enough and allow for the election of competent people. But the reality is that most voters – members of the general public – have poor judgment to differentiate between confident and competent individuals, and have a high affinity towards supporting charismatic but narcissistic politicians who are often demagogues.

Sitati Wasilwa is a political economist and consultant on governance, geopolitics and public policy, and a youth leader at YMCA Kenya. Twitter: @SitatiWasilwa. Facebook: Sitati Wasilwa. LinkedIn: Sitati Wasilwa.

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My 2020 Reads So Far…

In this article, I reflect on the books that I have read in 2020 or currently reading. I strongly believe that reading is the most fundamental way we can conceptualize new ideas or simply become better thinkers. So far, I have only read seven books which are very few, but I have always believed that quality matters and not quantity.

We need to read better instead of reading more but I am certain I could be on my tenth read if not for other work and personal commitments.

So which books have I read or currently reading? What are the definitive lessons I have learnt? And what are some of the compelling insights, arguments or opinions that they bear? I have excerpted most of the insights, arguments and opinions for purposes of originality.

“How Life Imitates Chess: Making the Right Moves from the Board to the Boardroom” by Garry Kasparov

I picked Garry Kasparov’s text since I needed to start the year on a high note; to reflect on personal and professional goals and ambitions. Kasparov is a Russian chess grand-master and regarded as the greatest chess player of all time. Additionally, he is a writer and political activist in Russia.

I love reading books authored by former players or coaches since sports offers insightful lessons on organization of teams, formulation of strategies, execution of plans, and significance of discipline and personality in winning. I also enjoy playing chess and related the game’s concepts to Kasparov’s thoughts.

What are some of the insights or lessons from Kasparov’s book?

“Aggressiveness is as much of an asset in politics, business, and other walks of life as it is in chess.”

“Every leader in every field, every successful company or individual, got to the top by working harder and focusing better than someone else.”

“Every step, every reaction, every decision you make, must be done with a clear objective.”

“Self-awareness is essential to being able to combine your knowledge, experience and talent to reach your peak performance.”

“If critics and competitors can’t match your results, they will often denigrate the way you achieve them.”

“As a politician I know that there is always a time and place for diplomacy, but I also know that you win more often when you negotiate from a position of strength. And sometimes that means playing the aggressor.”

It’s an insightful read especially for individuals who know how to play chess.

“The Company of the Future: Meeting the management challenges of the communications revolution” by Frances Cairncross.

Frances Cairncross is a British economist, journalist and academic. She previously headed Exeter College, University of Oxford, and was an economic columnist for 13 years at The Guardian and spent 20 years as a senior editor at The Economist magazine.

This book is a definitive guide to some of the fundamental management practices in a world that is rapidly changing as a result of technological development. Cairncross offers insights on how organizations can weather the storms of communication technology.

Cairncross outlines the “Ten Rules for Survival” in an era where disruptions occasioned by technology are rife.

  1. Manage knowledge

“A company is the sum of what its people understand and know how to do well.”

“Getting intelligent people to share what is in their heads is vital, and takes more than mere money or clever software.”

“Ideas must flow sideways through a company and from the bottom up – not merely top down.

2. Make decisions

“Good judgment will remain a key skill. Managers constantly blitzed with new information require strong nerves if they are to build in the data that matters and set aside the rest.”

“Managers must accept that it is sometimes better to be roughly right than exactly wrong.”

“…a decision must be not just financially right, but ethically defensible too.”

3. Focus on customers

“Customers matter – but some matter more than others.”

4. Manage talent

“Like its customers, some of a company’s people matter more than others. That does not apply only to people at the top: Managing talent is also about capturing ideas from middle managers and those further down the line.”

5. Manage collaboration

“Teams may be separated by time zone or by geographic distance and increasingly will work for different employers. Effective collaboration between teams and between companies calls for similar qualities: trust and shared understanding, rather than the top-down, command-and-control approach of hierarchical structures.”

6. Build the right structure

“As costs of handling information in a company decline, so new opportunities open for redefining corporate shape. In general, companies will be less hierarchical, more modular, with more ways to arrange and rearrange structure.”

7. Manage communications

“Given the pace of change, bosses need more than ever to be able to communicate persuasively through many channels, with their staff and the outside world. They must also listen: The most valuable communications will frequently be bottom-up, and the folk nearest to the customer and the product now have new tools for explaining what they see.”

8. Set standards

“Ironically, Internet technologies, tools of freedom and decentralization, call for discipline, protocols, and standard processes.”

9. Foster openness

“Once standards have been set, then openness and freedom should reign. Discipline and openness are two sides of the same coin: Centralization of standards makes possible decentralization of decision making.”

10. Develop leadership

“Without the right organizational structure, culture, and staff, a company will not fully benefit from even the most sophisticated technology.”

“At some points in a company’s life, it will need a hero-leader who can rally staff to push through the trauma of disruptive change. At other times, the right style will be the manager-as-coach, a selfless talent scout who specializes in assembling and motivating great teams.”

“Always, the people at the top will set the tone in a firm. Their skills will determine whether it is a good company to work in and do business with.”

This is an effective read for organizational leaders and managers.

“Global Discontents: Conversations on the Rising Threats to Democracy” by Noam Chomsky with David Barsamian.

Noam Chomsky is one of the world’s most formidable intellectuals. He is a linguist, philosopher, historian and political activist. David Barsamian is a radio broadcaster and writer.

This book is a collection of conversations between Chomsky and Barsamian and reflects on the continuous rise of imperialism and decline of democracy across the world.

What are some of the insights?

“The technology is available. You can use it for making money, and you can use it for controlling people’s attitudes and beliefs, directing them toward what you want them to do. So they do.”

“In Iraq, it was clear that the United States was basically defeated. Its war aims were unrealizable, and the Bush administration was starting to pull out. In Afghanistan, Obama actually expanded the war in the hope of achieving some kind of victory. It didn’t happen.”

“Why is the state executive granted the authority to capriciously decide you’re a terrorist? Why does the state have the right to say that Nelson Mandela is a terrorist, which they insisted on until just a couple of years ago? Why do they have the right to say, as Ronald Reagan did in 1982, that Saddam Hussein isn’t a terrorist, just because the U.S. government wanted to give him aid?”

“The basic principle was enunciated by the president of the Continental Congress, John Jay, later the first chief justice of the (U.S) Supreme Court. He said, “Those who own the country ought to govern it.” Or as (James) Madison put it, power has to be in the hands of the wealth of the nation, the more responsible set of men who sympathize with property owners and understand that you have “to protect the minority of the opulent against the majority.” The rest of the population has to be tamed to make sure they can’t do very much.”

“The three countries that are most supportive of Israel are the United States, Australia, and Canada – all settler-colonial societies that virtually exterminated their indigenous populations. What Israel is doing (in Palestine) seems quite consistent with their own national images.”

“And Reagan and Margaret Thatcher were supporters of apartheid right to the end. In fact, Reagan was supporting terrorist groups in Angola – UNITA was essentially a terrorist gang…”

“…the ANC, the African National Congress, was condemned by the United States in 1988 – almost at the end of apartheid – as one of the “more notorious” terrorist groups in the world. That was shortly before Mandela was released. In fact, Mandela himself stayed on the terrorist list until 2008. It took special legislation in Congress to get him off it.”

“Imperialism basically means domination of others, and it takes many different forms. It can take the form of overt rule over the natives. It can take the form of settler colonialism, the worst kind, where you drive out the natives and replace them. There are other forms, too, such as economic domination. Take the so-called free-trade agreements, like the North American Free Trade Agreement, the Uruguay Round of the World Trade Organization, the proposed Trans-Pacific Partnership. These have nothing much to do with trade, despite the name; they are largely investor-rights agreements. They give multinational corporations and investors substantial control over the resources, policies, and actions of other countries.”

This is a book worth reading especially if one seeks to gain an understanding of how the world operates.

“A Leap Into the Future: A Vision for Kenya’s Socio-political and Economic Transformation” by Anyang’ Nyong’o.

The good old professor and a renowned political scientist in Africa and currently serves as the second Governor of Kisumu County. He played an instrumental role in Kenya’s second liberation and formation of the NARC coalition that drove KANU out of power.

This book is a collection of his essays, articles and presentations. It is rich in Kenya’s political and economic history and economic recovery post-KANU regime. What are some of the insights?

“Lee Kwan Yew, then a senior cabinet minister in Singapore, after his retirement from being Premier and founding father of the nation, had just given us a lecture on “What Singapore Can Learn from Africa and What Africa Can Learn from Singapore.” At question time I asked him whether he could explain to us why Singapore was able to take off and become a modern developed nation from the late sixties while we, who were at that time at the same level with them, retrogressed. Then came the old man’s wisdom in reply to my question: “While we in Singapore decided to march forward together as a nation, you in Kenya decided to assassinate Tom Mboya.” What Lee Kwan Yew meant to convey to us was that leadership matters in development, particularly leaders with clear ideas and vision about the future of their nation, those who can fix their eyes on some distant star that guides their action towards clear developmental goals.”

“Creating wealth for the few without creating employment for the masses would not lead to a full recovery process for purposes of kick-starting sustainable growth. Such jobless growth models are many in developing economies, and Kenya would not be the first to try economic recovery through the easy way of a growing GDP without the requisite creation of jobs. Tough political choices needed to be made to meet the objectives of the recovery strategy, i.e. wealth as well as employment creation.”

“Empowerment does not simply mean being appointed to a position – although representation is a major aspect of the empowerment process: it essentially means making people have their destiny in their own hands as much as possible.”

“Thus, the Ndegwa Commission of 1972 that allowed Kenyan civil servants to engage in business provided a big loophole for corruption in Kenya. It was indeed after the Ndegwa Commission Report that corruption in public offices started to escalate.”

“Let it not be said that corruption is a uniquely African disease, now would it be correct to assert that it is an affliction of post-independence Africa. The white settlers in colonial Kenya made their fortunes through corruption. Without cheating in collusion with colonial officials, stealing from the coffers of the colony, appropriating land for which they paid next to nothing, sucking of the blood of poor peasants for labour not paid for and literally getting public transport for free for their farm products, the Blundells and Delameres of colonial Kenya would not have built their fortunes and “moved to better things” when the nationalists finally took over political power.”

“Thus, when KPU cited corruption as one of the ways by which KANU misruled Kenya, Kenyatta chided Kaggia in that famous speech at a rally in Nairobi in 1966 where he accused him of having failed to build a house for himself while he, Kenyatta, had put up a mansion in rural Gatundu. For Kenyatta, it was not corruption that was the issue, it was the inability of some “leaders” to make use of “opportunities” open to them within the state to improve themselves. In this public and dramatised setting, a tradition was set from the highest level of political authority that made public officials enjoy impunity against the law should they be accused of corruption.”

“Malaysian leaders told me that when they visited Kenya in the mid-1970s, they were similarly struck by the progress Kenya had made since independence compared to where they were at the time!…But what had struck the Malaysians most was that at the time, Nairobi (and Kenya) had better infrastructure than Malaysia, and it was also better managed…Kuala Lumpur was nothing like this. So Malaysian leaders decided they would make their capital as good as – or better than – Nairobi. They requested the Kenya Government to allow Malaysian planners and civil servants to take courses at the Kenya Institute of Administration, then Kenya’s premier public service training institution, and the Kenya Government obliged.”

Nyong’o’s book contains credible insights and hence worth reading.

“Supercapitalism: The Transformation of Business, Democracy, and Everyday Life” by Robert Reich.

Robert Reich is an American economist, professor, author and political commentator. He served as Secretary of Labor between 1993 and 1997 and as member of President Barack Obama’s economic transition advisory board.

Although this book mostly gives an account of the American economy and polity, it resonates with the global realities of the political economy of capitalism. What are some of the insights?

“Some observers rightly point out that these gains (from capitalism) have been accompanied by widening inequalities of income and wealth. The gains have also accompanied other problems such as heightened job insecurity, and environmental hazards such as global warming. Strictly speaking, though, these are not failings of capitalism. Capitalism’s role is to enlarge the economic pie. How the slices are divided and whether they are applied to private goods like personal computers or public goods like clean air is up to society to decide. This is the role we assign to democracy.”

“Between 1945 and 1970, real incomes tripled around the world and world trade quadrupled. Not coincidentally, America’s foreign policy created new opportunities for America’s largest corporations – then larger, richer, and more technologically advanced than anywhere else in the world – to expand their markets abroad. With the dollar as the currency on which the world’s fixed-exchange system was based, America’s bankers and large corporations could extend the reach of American capitalism at minimal risk. Under a World Bank controlled by Americans, development assistance could be focused around the globe precisely where large American corporations saw greatest opportunity.”

“The effect was not uniformly benign. With uncanny precision, the Central Intelligence Agency uncovered communist plots just where America’s largest corporations wanted to ensure stable supplies of natural resources. When in 1953 an anti-colonial Iranian nationalist movement led by Mohammed Mossadegh challenged the power of the shah and seized the Anglo-Iranian Oil Company, the CIA secretly channeled millions of dollars to Iranian army officers dedicated to returning the shah to power. Once that objective was met, American oil companies were granted generous access to Iranian oil. The next year, Guatemala’s democratically elected president, Jacobo Arbenz Guzman, initiated land reforms that, along the way, confiscated the United Fruit Company’s plantations. The CIA then bankrolled right-wing revolutionaries who, helped by CIA pilots and aircraft supplied by Nicaraguan dictator Anastasio Somoza, spared United Fruit an otherwise dismal fate. Also in 1954, the United States became quietly involved in Indochina, another area rich in natural resources. In Latin America, Vietnam, and the Middle East, America’s foreign policy sowed the seeds of profound problems for the future.”

This is certainly a good read for understanding the global political economy system of capitalism.

“The Tipping Point: How Little Things Can Make a Big Difference” by Malcolm Gladwell.

Malcolm Gladwell is a Canadian journalist, author and public speaker. Gladwell’s book is interesting on the account that it explores three fundamental ways of understanding social epidemics but still applicable in other facets of life; the law of the few, stickiness factor, and the power of context.

The law of the few refers to very few individuals who spread epidemics or can be able to orchestrate change. Gladwell categorizes such individuals into connectors, mavens, and salespeople.

Connectors are individuals who seem to know very many people and help to spread epidemics or change.

Mavens are individuals who seem to know everything and they read more and often use the information they possess to help others. Mavens are usually passionate about new ideas and concepts and this creates a contagious effect among other individuals.

Salespeople are individuals with great interpersonal skills and effectively use their body language to enhance change or social epidemics.

The stickiness factor refers to a unique quality of a product or event that easily sticks in people’s minds and lasts for a considerably longer period of time.

The power of context refers to the environment within which an event takes place or a product coexists.

“The New Machiavelli: How to Wield Power in the Modern World” by Jonathan Powell.

This is my current read and I’m aiming to finish it in the course of the month of May. I have cleared chapter one and two and found it a very interesting book which the author contextualizes Niccolo Machiavelli’s texts, The Prince and The Discourses with his own experiences while serving as Chief of Staff to former British Prime Minister, Tony Blair. Here are some of the insights.

“In The Discourses, Machiavelli repeats the old saw that ‘he (Prince) is of a different opinion in the market place from which he is in the Palace.’ He explains that, once a man has risen to the highest office, when he gets there he looks ‘at things more clearly and so has come to recognise the source of the disorders, the dangers which they entail, and the difficulty of putting matters right.”

“Machiavelli advises that a new leader ‘must keep his mind ready to shift as the winds and tides of Fortune turn’…But leaders also need to have a plan if they want to change things rather than being hijacked by events or by the agendas of others.”

“Over time opposition will build up and it is harder to be radical. A leader should spend his political capital early rather than hoarding it.”

“In the words of Isaiah Berlin, Machiavelli’s advice was: ‘if your action must be drastic, do it in one fell swoop, not in agonising stages.’

“According to the Machiavelli scholar John Plamenatz, Machiavelli ‘valued above all the two qualities which enabled a man to assert himself, courage and intelligence’, and these are the two qualities at the heart of leadership in any field. What Machiavelli meant by courage is self-evident, but by intelligence he did not mean intellect but rather judgement or instinct – what we would now call emotional intelligence. This is the mysterious ingredient that allows great leaders to have sense of where Fortune will lead and how best to take advantage of it.”

“Unlike wisdom, for example, which cab be acquired with experience, these qualities of courage and intelligence cannot be learned. A leader has to be born with them.”

“Machiavelli believed that, in addition to the ability to make difficult decisions, successful princes need to be born with good political instincts.”

“These innate qualities of courage and political instinct, while essential, are not enough by themselves to make a great leader. Leaders also need to acquire five other skills: competence, the ability to communicate, charisma, perspective and charm.”

Powell’s book would require one to read The Prince in order to clearly understand its content.

“A room without books is like a body without a soul.” – Cicero

“Books are the quietest and most constant of friends; they are the most accessible and wisest of counselors, and the most patient of teachers.” – Charles W. Eliot

Sitati Wasilwa is a consultant on governance, geopolitics and public policy. Twitter: @SitatiWasilwa

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Analysis of the Jubilee-KANU Post-Election Coalition Agreement

The Jubilee-KANU post-election coalition agreement should be interpreted as Uhuru Kenyatta’s uncanny political ‘theory’ in determining who succeeds him in 2022. However, this political deal does not qualify Uhuru Kenyatta as a political maverick but as a circumstantial political nanny attempting to replay Daniel Moi’s political script then christened as Project Uhuru.

Background to the Post-Election Deal

After Uhuru Kenyatta lost the 1997 parliamentary elections to Moses Muhia, the late Daniel Moi appointed him to chair the Kenya Tourism Board in 1999. Later in 2001, Uhuru Kenyatta was nominated as a Member of Parliament after the late Mark Too stepped down, and was appointed as Minister for Local Government.

In March 2002, he was elected as one of the four Vice Chairpersons of KANU in a scheme hatched by the late Daniel arap Moi to have Uhuru Kenyatta as KANU’s flag bearer in the 2002 elections. In 2007, Uhuru’s KANU did not field a presidential candidate but instead supported the reelection of Mwai Kibaki, a position which was also taken by Daniel Moi.

Although KANU was part of the Amani Coalition with the United Democratic Front (UDF) and New FORD-Kenya in the lead up to the 2013 elections, it jumped ship after the polls and signed a post-election deal with the Jubilee Coalition. In the 2017 elections, KANU supported the reelection of Uhuru Kenyatta.

The March 2018 handshake between Uhuru Kenyatta and Raila Odinga served as the tipping point for the former to fix his Deputy, William Ruto, and lay out plans to elevate the political status of Baringo Senator, Gideon Moi. Of course the handshake is bound to shape Kenya’s political trajectory en route to the 2022 polls.

Undoubtedly, the handshake rattled William Ruto’s camp with the anti-handshake brigade opposed to calls for a pre-2022 constitutional referendum whose primary objective is the expansion of the Executive.

A common feature of post-handshake Kenya were the serial visits to the late Daniel Moi’s residence by Uhuru Kenyatta, Raila Odinga, Kalonzo Musyoka, Mama Ngina Kenyatta among others. We need to recall that William Ruto was barred by Gideon Moi from visiting Kenya’s second president at his Kabarak home. The mini-handshakes with the late Daniel Moi could have been about securing the political future of Gideon Moi, who is either an underrated or weak politician.

A few weeks ago, the owners of the Jubilee Party made their intentions known by making changes to the Party’s National Management Committee, a move that elicited a lot of emotions and stirred debate about the future of the Party, and William Ruto in particular.

Regrouping of the Kenyatta’s, Moi’s and Odinga’s is a historical show of might out to eclipse William Ruto’s political stardom.

Kenya’s political history is rife with incidences of post-election deals some of which were ground-breaking and some of which were colourless.

Post-Election Pacts in Kenya

Kenya’s first post-election deal in modern history can be traced to the triumph of KANU in the May 1963 elections whereby KADU’s luminaries disbanded the party and merged with KANU. As a result, a number of KADU officials were appointed as Cabinet ministers. Elevation of former KADU officials in the KANU government intensified hostility between the Jomo Kenyatta camp and the so-called communist brigade led by Oginga Odinga. The rivalry resulted in the formation of Kenya People’s Union (KPU) led by Oginga Odinga.

During KANU’s meeting at the infamous Limuru Conference, the Vice President’s position in KANU was expanded to eight positions to politically fix Oginga Odinga with Tom Mboya acting as Jomo Kenyatta’s Mr. Fix It.

The November 1979 elections did not witness crafting of post-election deals per se, but the events following the election shaped Kenya’s and KANU’s political trajectories. Daniel Moi felt time was ripe to create his own legion of courtiers in order to move away from the political shadow of Jomo Kenyatta. This led to the appointment of several politicians to the Cabinet including Nicholas Biwott, Jonathan arap Ng’eno, Henry Kosgey, Moses Mudavadi, and Joseph Kamotho, with others such as Simeon Nyachae and Joseph Leting securing key appointments in government.

After the 1992 elections, a post-election pact between KANU and FORD-Kenya was in the offing up until the death of Oginga Odinga. The deal seemed to have been midwifed by Kamlesh Pattni having sensed that FORD-Kenya was broke with the latter’s leadership having failed to secure funds from the then feared USA Ambassador to Kenya, Smith Hempstone, to file petitions against the Democratic Party (DP) and FORD-Asili.

Pattni’s donation came in handy and was an inflection point of Oginga Odinga to reunite with Daniel Moi but the former’s death shifted focus to FORD-Kenya’s chaotic succession.

Following the 1997 general elections, both FORD-Kenya under the leadership of Kijana Wamalwa and NDP then led by Raila Odinga jostled to court Moi’s attention. Raila’s NDP successfully crafted a post-election cooperation deal with KANU that saw the latter receive support in Parliament among other institutions within the government establishment. The post-election cooperation agreement between KANU and NDP laid the foundation of the merger that took place in March 2002. This was also the tipping point of KANU’s defeat in the 2002 elections following Moi’s selection of Uhuru Kenyatta as the party’s presidential candidate.

The defeat of Mwai Kibaki’s Banana faction during the 2005 constitutional referendum paved way for the formation of a Government of National Unity that saw the appointment of some KANU and FORD-People MPs to the Cabinet. This somehow laid the foundation for KANU to support Kibaki’s reelection and Kibaki’s adoption of the Party of National Unity (PNU) as his reelection outfit.

The contentious 2007 general elections led to the formation of the Grand Coalition government with the parties represented in Parliament having their members in the Executive except for Cryrus Jirongo’s then political outfit, KADDU.

After the 2013 elections, KANU and UDF separately signed post-election deals with the Jubilee Coalition with members from the two parties rewarded with government appointments though these pacts were politically mild.

Following the highly charged 2017 elections, Raila Odinga and Uhuru Kenyatta signed a post-election deal in March 2018 popularly known as the handshake. The handshake has already proven to be a political game-changer in the country; ODM no longer plays its role as the largest opposition party, the Jubilee Party is split, William Ruto appears to be isolated and generally new alliances are shaping up.

The KANU-Jubilee Party post-election deal comes at a time when the country’s political trajectory is gearing for Uhuru Kenyatta’s succession.

But what are the scenarios and perhaps the eventualities of the post-election deal between Jubilee Party and KANU?

Possible Scenarios and Eventualities

The eventual death of the Jubilee Party is in the offing. The handshake divided the ruling party and the post-election pact complicates William Ruto’s position in the Party. Ruto now needs to identify his political party or risk further isolation. As such, we are bound to witness Ruto and his allies finding a new political home.

Additionally, with Kenyatta set to retire, politicians in his camp could regroup under KANU or a Mt. Kenya-based political party in 2022 in the event that Ruto successfully gets hold of a weakened Jubilee Party. Jubilee Party could end up being an outfit with support among pockets of the Kalenjin nation.

Formation of a broader coalition comprising of KANU, Jubilee, ODM, Wiper, FORD-Kenya, and ANC could happen. Such a coalition could have Raila Odinga as the flag bearer and Gideon Moi as the running mate. Leaders of the other political parties could assume positions in an expanded Executive. We can now connect the dots on who is supporting and not supporting the Building Bridges Initiative (BBI) which aims to create more positions within the Executive.

But why Gideon Moi as the possible running mate and not the other experienced politicians? He is the prince and a blue-eyed boy who can easily finance a presidential campaign but would need a higher power in Odinga to set pace for his national political career. Why Raila Odinga as the flag bearer? James Orengo has hinted of a possible alliance between Raila’s and Uhuru’s forces. By Raila Odinga taking charge of BBI rallies and hosting delegations at his Capitol Hill offices are subtle indicators of him being the flag bearer of a super-coalition.

Raila Odinga could also be betrayed in the context of the post-election pact between Jubilee Party and KANU. Kenya’s political history is not short of political betrayals and Odinga’s betrayal by Kenyatta will certainly add flavour to this political pot.

Uhuru Kenyatta might advocate for ‘Project Gideon Moi’ since 2022 is the only viable year that the young Moi has to be thrust into the national political scene. Sometime back, Uhuru Kenyatta publicly stated that the choice of his preferred successor will be a shock to many. Maybe Gideon Moi will be the man.

Betrayal of Raila Odinga could occasion formation of an alliance between him and the now isolated William Ruto. But with Odinga and Ruto on one side, will KANU’s alliance with the other parties triumph? Possibly yes especially if the Luhya bloc largely sticks with Musalia Mudavadi and Moses Wetang’ula who could lend support to Gideon Moi, and also if the formation gets the support of majority of members of the Mt. Kenya bloc. If this scenario plays out, then it will be the most interesting political battle to watch.

The rise of Gideon Moi would eventually divide the unity portrayed by the Kalenjin bloc during elections; voting in a defined pattern. This could also be a strategy to further decapitate Ruto’s kingship status of the Kalenjin community.

All in all, the political jostling and repositioning will take place as we head towards 2022 but let’s not forget the role of the deep state in determining the country’s political fate. The deep state calls the shots on who becomes the Commander-In-Chief. Interesting political times lie ahead.

Sitati Wasilwa is a political economist and consultant on public policy, governance and geopolitics.

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Africa Needs to Revisit its Relations with China Post-COVID-19, But is this Possible?

The COVID-19 pandemic has unraveled the nature of the relations between African states and the People’s Republic of China, at least in a superficial sense; China is the master and Africa is the neocolony.

A few weeks ago, the Chinese government racially segregated Black Africans, choreographed as a strategy of containing the spread of the Coronavirus disease. A number of African states such as Nigeria were bold enough to call out the racial acts of the Chinese government. Others, like Kenya, coiled their tails and even unashamedly stated that citizens who wanted to be evacuated would have to foot their own bills. Sounds obnoxious! This is a characteristic of a failed government.

Therefore, the racial harassment of Black Africans by Chinese authorities should serve as an inflection point for African governments to revisit their relations with Beijing. But is this possible?

The Belt & Road Initiative (BRI) is a geopolitical masterpiece that would curtail the efforts by the African countries to revisit relations with Beijing. Only 14 African countries haven’t signed up for BRI; Eritrea, Mauritius, DR Congo, Central African Republic, Benin, Equatorial Guinea, eSwatini and Botswana. The BRI would lead to construction of massive infrastructural projects in Africa but this will occasion an increase in debts for African countries. China stands to benefit with its rush for global power status and will go out of the way to even buy out the African political leaders.

What is Africa’s selling point to China? The Africa-China relationship is skewed towards benefiting Beijing more than African countries. Statistical data compiled by the China Africa Research Initiative indicates that China benefits more from trade between Africa and China. In 2018, China’s exports to Africa amounted to $104.95 billion while its imports from Africa amounted to $80.34 billion. The nature of trade between Africa and China is further illustrated by the graph below.

Undoubtedly, China benefits more from Africa as indicated by the reported statistics. We do not really know to what extent China benefits from Africa from the clandestine economic activities such as illegal trade that Chinese entities engage in. African governments have full knowledge of this. Perhaps the bilateral deals between African countries and Beijing are laced with elements of corruption.

What is the role of the African Union (AU) in whipping African states towards revisiting their relations with Beijing? Well, the AU is a toothless institution that does little to protect and promote the interests of the African countries. It has for long suffered from a lack of bold leadership. Nothing is expected to change in the near future. China largely financed and built the new AU headquarters valued at $200 million with a significant proportion of the building materials imported from China. This is a disgrace. African governments cannot fund the construction of their own continental offices. The AU, later on, complained that China spied on the African states. But the late Thomas Sankara stated that whoever feeds you controls you. As such, the AU is also responsible for the neocolonial antics advanced by Beijing.

AfCFTA: Africa’s Only Ray of Hope

Operationalization of the African Continental Free Trade Area agreement (AfCFTA) should be Africa’s masterstroke in reforming or revisiting its relations with Beijing. Unbalanced economic relations between states such as skewed trade in favour of China can only be rectified by African states committing themselves to the ideals of realizing economic freedom for the African people.

Successful implementation of the AfCFTA would mean that any foreign entity should collectively negotiate with African countries based on a holistic framework. The potential of the intra-African trade is massive and hence the need to effectively roll-out the AfCFTA.

The AU should be proactive in setting the agenda for the continent while engaging with Beijing and not act as a secondary party in stamping initiatives originating from China. But in all this, the strength of the financial muscles calls the shots and Africa is not prepared for the current and future geopolitical duels against Beijing.

Sitati Wasilwa is a political economist and consultant on governance, geopolitics and public policy. LinkedIn: Sitati Wasilwa. Twitter: @SitatiWasilwa

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COVID-19 Pandemic: Disheveled Economies, Disarrayed Polities & the Future

By Sitati Wasilwa

What matters? Welfarism? Free markets? Democracy or just efficient governance systems? Individualism or communalism? The essentialism of the COVID-19 pandemic cannot be underestimated.

The COVID-19 crisis has raptured globalization, disheveled economies, disarrayed polities and reorganized societies on massive scale. Pristinely, a global economic recession is looming.

Economic recessions or crises have always led to fundamental change in politics and thence a revision of the social and economic policies adopted to transition to the next chapter. The COVID-19 pandemic manifests itself as a social, political and economic crisis.

Socially, norms and routines have been altered. People are forced to adjust to unfamiliar lives: working from home; no more feeling of camaraderie from social gatherings; for others, it’s doomsday with their jobs wiped out by the monstrous virus; for some, readjusting to realities of life in the countryside is the new normal; and certainly, worries about the fate of tomorrow dominate our lives more than ever before.

Politically, the frivolous nature of greedy politicians has been exposed. Politicians are now familiar with policies and terminologies of a functional healthcare system. State capture by big business is in plain view; financial bailout programmes are mainly targeting large corporations and not small and medium-scale enterprises. Democracy and authoritarian classifications no longer matter. It is how efficiently governments around the world respond to the crisis.

Economically, it’s evident that people should matter more than profits and this ought to be the primacy of policy. Global supply chains are disrupted. Organizations are scaling down their operations and unemployment is set to rise. Living standards are bound to fall and manacles of poverty are primed to handcuff more people. Developing countries are set to rack up more debts. In short, the COVID-19 pandemic has orchestrated a reversal of economic gains.

A Reflection of the Past

History matters, and it matters a great deal! In modern world history, economic crises or pandemics of human nature have often led to political, economic and social reforms. For instance, the deadly Spanish flu that ravaged parts of the world between 1918 and 1920 occasioned public healthcare reforms.

According to Laura Spinney, the aftermath of the Spanish flu prompted governments to adopt policies seeking to provide healthcare for all. Spinney notes that the post-Spanish flu period saw Russia become the first country to establish a centralized public healthcare system, a policy imperative adopted by some Western European countries. Such a healthcare system was fully financed by a state-run insurance scheme. Creation of Sweden’s modern welfare state is significantly credited to the depredations of the Spanish flu.

Across the Atlantic, the federal government of the United States of America opted for employer-based insurance schemes as part of the post-Spanish flu healthcare reforms. In Canada, the topsy-turvydom created by the Spanish flu pandemic led to the establishment of the federal Department of Health in 1919 with the state playing a primary role in advancing public healthcare.

Although information about the origin of the Spanish flu is still unclear, the first official cases were recorded at USA Army’s Camp Funston in Kansas. Large-scale mobilization of troops during World War I is thought to have catalyzed the spread of the flu.

A report published by the Federal Bank of St. Louis in 2007 documents about the economic effects of the 1918 Spanish influenza such as closure of grocery stores, an increase in drug store activities, a rise in demand for beds and mattresses, long hours of work for physicians, and closure of mines among others.

Despite the fact that the report entirely focuses on the American state, its praxis on the significance of the nexus of the 1918 Spanish flu and a modern-day pandemic is engrossing.

Africa also bore the brunt of the Spanish flu with a research study highlighting that in the coastal region of Kenya the virus paralyzed administrative operations, created food shortage, occasioned commercial losses and overstretched the healthcare sector. In South Africa, the flu led to the death of 300,000 South Africans representing 6% of the total population.

In an article published by Reuters Magazine in 2013, Begley warns of how a flu pandemic could trigger a global recession. The news feature is based on a 2008 World Bank report highlighting that the SARS pandemic of 2009 shredded global GDP by $33 billion.

Major economic crises always spark calls for reforms. Notably, the Great Depression resulted in the formulation of the New Deal which largely aimed at addressing the plight of the common Americans. In Western Europe, the economic crisis occasioned by World War II actuated the European Recovery Programme (the Marshall Plan). These two reforms laid the foundation for the Golden Age of Capitalism although Robert Reich in his book, Supercapitalism, refers to it as “Not Quite the Golden Age” since political and economic inequality was evident among women and minority groups.

The economic recession of 1973 changed the global political economy in fundamental ways. Economist and historian Marc Levinson writes that the early 1970s marked the end of the Golden Age of Capitalism with politics moving to the Right. The decline of the Golden Age resulted from stagnated productivity growth. The shift of politics to the Right resulted in a loss in social benefits such as health insurance mostly provided by governments across Western Europe among others. As such, the implications on public healthcare were significant.

The fundamental shift in the global political systems was also embraced by the Bretton Woods institutions which embarked on missions to spread the Washington Consensus gospel in Africa through the infamous Structural Adjustment Policies (SAPs).

Failure of SAPs is evident especially in public healthcare and education systems leading to revision of the Washington Consensus with focus directed to a number of policy issues including provision of social safety nets and poverty reduction.

Financial crisis that precipitated the Great Recession in 2008/2009 led to advocacy for more government intervention in the economy with calls for provision of healthcare for all especially in developed economies. The austerity measures adopted by governments following the recession were germs for emergence of radicalized political movements across the global north.

William Davies contends that the financial crisis of 2008 failed to provoke a fundamental shift in capitalism but the COVID-19 crisis is set to bring about a sea change in the systems of global political economy based on high levels of international connectedness and the spatial nature of the pandemic. Retooling of social and economic life is certain with the pandemic serving as an inflection point “for new economic and intellectual beginnings.”

A Vision for the Future

Economic and political movements will emerge after the pandemic to vouch for reformation of healthcare systems all over the world. Governments and multi-lateral institutions will have to change their priorities and increase spending on public healthcare. Therefore, universal healthcare will emerge as a policy priority for state and non-state actors.

Governments and multi-lateral institutions reluctant to embrace healthcare for all will encounter opposition from social justice movements and disgruntled members of the public.

A paradigm shift in the systems of political economy is also bound to happen. Neoliberalism is set to reform or undergo decapitation. Political and economic ideologies that fashion people over profits will dominate public discourse. Could there be a re-emergence of democratic capitalism or will social democracy be the norm? Will the Chinese political economy model inspire states?

What is the future of big business in the global economy and national politics? Reformation of the healthcare system will most likely be derailed by the Big Pharma. Big Pharma may take hostage global politics and economics. The intricacies of the medical-industrial complex could go a notch higher.

Globalization will still be fashioned by state and non-state actors as a crucial step towards economic recovery and prosperity.  

Immigration to the most affected countries especially the developed ones is set to take place. The Western world may review its immigration policies and make them friendly. But this will depend on the pace of economic recovery.

Is a new world order in the offing? Too close to call but possibilities are within the horizons; evolution and dominance of the world by the medical-industrial complex and not the military-industrial complex; the dawn of a multi-polar world; dissipation of democratic ideals and enchantment of political pragmatism; and establishment of welfare states.

This article was first published by The African Executive, a publication of the Inter-Region Economic Network (IREN Kenya).

Sitati Wasilwa is a political economist and consultant on governance, geopolitics and public policy. Twitter: @SitatiWasilwa

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A Look at Kasparov’s Book, “How Life Imitates Chess…”

Garry Kasparov‘s book, “How Life Imitates Chess: Making the Right Moves from the Board to the Boardroom”, was my first read in 2020. It is a very insightful book especially for individuals in leadership and management or seeking to get there. However, individuals seeking to reconfigure their lives will still find it relevant.

Kasparov is a chess grand-master who became the youngest world chess champion at 22 years in 1985. He retired in 2005 having been ranked as world number one for 225 out of 228 months. Such a mean feat to achieve in the sporting arena. He’s since ventured into politics and authorship.

The book is a reflection of his years as a chess player and he draws on his experience by establishing the nexus between chess and life.

Some vital lessons can be drawn from Kasparov’s book and I have outlined them below.

Self-Awareness is Key in Chess & Life

The following statement extracted from the book illustrates Kasparov’s high regard for self-awareness as a principality for setting high standards and succeeding.

“Self-awareness is essential to being able to combine your knowledge, experience and talent to reach your peak performance…”

Leadership and management demand that one ought to know himself or herself. Understanding one’s strengths and inadequacies would help a great deal. But this is more of a personal initiative and individuals short on emotional intelligence may find this to be an uphill task.

Goal-setting & Decision-making

One particular aspect indicating how life imitates chess is goal-setting and decision-making. Sounds easy but a very difficult thing to do since most individuals in different facets of life have a casual approach towards setting goals making decisions. On setting goals making decisions, Kasparov states that:

“Every step, every reaction, every decision you make, must be done with a clear objective…”

“If you play without long-term goals your decisions will become purely reactive and you’ll be playing your opponent’s game, not your own.”

“Are our tactics, our day-to-day decisions, based on our long-term goals?”

“Intuition and instinct form the bedrock of our decision-making especially the rapid-fire decisions that make up our daily lives.”

The Value of Discipline

Discipline is a principality for progress in any facet of life just like in chess. It manifests itself in form of hard work, consistency, planning and personal organization. The importance of discipline is summarized by Kasparov in the following statements.

“Every leader in every field, every successful company or individual, got to the top by working harder and focusing better than someone else.”

“The top achievers believe in themselves and their plans, and they work constantly to ensure those plans are worthy of their belief.”

“Why isn’t the capacity for hard work considered a natural gift?”

“If you said you didn’t have enough time, that meant you were not well organized.”

Time as a Resource & Investment

According to Kasparov, to stand out in any field, it is imperative that teams, organizations or individuals devote a large chunk of their time amassing knowledge and perfecting their skills. He emphasizes why dedication and discipline override talent. The following excerpt summarizes the significance of investing in time.

“Before you tell yourself you don’t have the talent of a Jordan or an Alekhine, remember the extraordinary amount of time they devoted to practice and study.”

Aggressiveness as a Strategy

Aggression, in Kasparov’s words, refers to “dynamism, innovation, improvement, courage, risk, and a willingness to take action.”

Top-performing individuals, teams and organizations tend to be aggressive. Kasparov’s views on aggressiveness include the following.

“Aggressiveness is as much of an asset in politics, business, and other walks of life as it is in chess.”

“Putting limits on our ambitions – and, yes our aggressiveness – puts limits on our achievement.”

“People who have an aggressive philosophy about their work also tend to be aggressive with their self-criticism.”

“As a politician I know that there is always a time and place for diplomacy, but I also know that you win more often when you negotiate from a position of strength. And sometimes that means playing the aggressor.”

“Today’s warfare is about hitting fast and hitting hard…If you don’t stay aggressively in front, you will quickly be left behind.”

“We have to keep evolving, and that means staying aggressive instead of standing still.”

Get it and read it…And also play some chess. Will you?

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My 2019 Reads…

I read thirteen books in 2019 having set a personal goal of reading at least a book every month some years back. I am not a very fast reader when it comes to books because I seek out to get the finer details as expressed by the authors.

This blog post reflects on the books I read and found them worth to invest time reading. We must strive to read books if at all we aspire to be better human beings. It’s largely through reading books that we intellectually explore the margins of the world and in the process become finer thinkers.

Getting consumed in the process of reading is a crucible that grinds our thought-process and improves our judgment, writing as well as speaking skills.

“Looters and Grabbers: 54 Years of Corruption and Plunder by the Elite, 1963-2017″ by Joe Khamisi.

This is a fantastic read! The author, a former Kenyan Member of Parliament, presents a factual account of the history and realities of corruption in Kenya. He gives a narration about corruption in pre-colonial, colonial and post-colonial Kenya. The book is certainly educative.

“The Fourth Industrial Revolution” by Klaus Schwab.

This is also a very informative book about the reality of the fourth industrial revolution and how it is bound to affect the economy, trade, government operations and individuals in terms of morality, ethics and human connection. Living in the era of big data and artificial intelligence is undoubtedly an exciting moment.

“Kicking Away the Ladder: Development Strategy in Historical Perspective” by Ha-Joon Chang.

A great read for individuals interested in understanding development economics. It provides a historical understanding of development and questions why the so called developed nations are dishonest in imposing economic policies and governance institutions on developing nations which the former never really embraced while developing.

“Makers and Takers: The Rise of Finance and the Fall of American Business” by Rana Foroohar.

Financialization and its master, neoliberalism, are the ugliest heads of capitalism. This is certainly a book that must be read by all those who care about the future of capitalism and how the system has fundamentally failed the many and benefited the rich in the United States of America and Western Europe. Unfortunately, the same system has been exported to Africa, Latin America and Asia whereby economies and polities are captured by big businesses, thereby benefiting the rich.

“On Leadership” by Harvard Business Review.

This book is a collection of the most popular and definitive articles published by the Harvard Business Review. It is one of the most compelling reads as far as leadership is concerned.

“Who Rules the World?” by Noam Chomsky.

The good old professor, Noam Chomsky, never get its wrong regarding the balance of power in the world, interventionist and imperialist foreign policies and the fate of the world in the hands of war mongers. The federal government of the United States of America is the world’s leading terrorist bureaucracy and organization not Al Qaeda, ISIS, Al Shabaab etc.

No doubt that the American economy is a war economy; wars have sustained the American economy since the end of the Cold War.

What if America reallocates just a quarter or a half of its military budget to financing healthcare, education, physical infrastructure among other urgent needs? Vladmir Lenin was right after all when he proclaimed that war is just but economic competition. Definitely an enriching text.

“Thomas Sankara Speaks: The Burkina Faso Revolution 1983-1987″ edited by Michel Prairie.

Thomas Sankara has always been my icon as far as political leadership is concerned. Honest, focused and brilliant, Sankara remains one of the few African politicians who came before his time. The book is a collection of his speeches and interviews whose thematic centrality is the need to fight imperialism which manifests itself in various forms – debt, colonialism, importation of basic items and chronic dependence on foreign assistance.

“Leading: Learning from Life and My Years at Manchester United” by Alex Ferguson with Michael Moritz.

Sir Alex Ferguson is one of my favorite personalities regarding leadership. We can learn a great deal about leadership and management from football and sports in general.

In the book, Ferguson explains at length certain fundamentals in leadership and management including the power of listening, watching and reading; the importance of discipline, work rate, drive and conviction; planning and organization of teams; the value of teamwork; setting standards; measuring people and the power of good judgement; time management; the need for leaders to speak at events and write as frequent as possible; and why leadership leads to more success than management among other issues.

“Bring the Noise: The Jurgen Klopp Story” by Raphael Honigstein.

Jurgen Klopp’s story is inspirational. His coaching abilities, organizational capabilities and leadership skills are top-notch no wonder he’s left a mark in each football team he has coached and managed – FSV Mainz 05, Borussia Dortmund and Liverpool F.C. His story is about self-belief and self-determination.

“New Ideas from Dead Economists: An Introduction to Modern Economic Thought” by Todd G. Buchholz.

This is an interesting read for economists and non-economists. It lays a basis for understanding the contribution of some of the leading economic thinkers and various schools of economic thought. It is a lively and catchy text drawing from the author’s choice of words and description.

“Football Management” by Sue Bridgewater.

This is an insightful book that elaborates how lessons in football management can be applied in business and vice versa. Additionally, it explains the significance of leadership in football and business, and it goes to the extent of providing evidentiary support.

“The Special One: The Secret World of Jose Mourinho” by Diego Torres and translated by Pete Jenson.

The management and leadership style of Jose Mourinho is uncouth and classically rudimentary. His style is beyond the Machiavellian approach in terms of balancing power. He is a highly divisive character and not cut out for long-term success in football management.

“Grand Pursuit: The Story of the People Who Made Modern Economics” by Sylvia Nasar.

Definitely a great read and highly recommended for both economists and non-economists. It is written in form of a novel and gives a compelling account of the lives and contributions of leading economic thinkers including women such as Beatrice Webb and Joan Robinson. Webb is well known for her economic contribution in view of the welfare state and collective bargaining while Robinson is famous for her arguments about the reality of markets being organized on the basis of monopolies and not perfect competition.

“Once you learn to read, you will be forever free.” – Frederick Douglas.

“Today a reader, tomorrow a leader.” – Margaret Fuller.

HAPPY NEW YEAR 2020!!

Sitati Wasilwa is a political economist and youth leader at Kenya YMCA. Email: sitatiwasilwa13@gmail.com. Twitter: @SitatiWasilwa

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Dawn of the Russia-Africa Summit and a Dimmer Future for Africa

By Sitati Wasilwa

The first ever Russia-Africa Summit was held on October 23rd and 24th, 2019 in the city of Sochi. This was Moscow’s outward projection intending to be a major player in global geopolitics.

The primary goal of the Summit is to counter the influence of the United States of America, China, the European Union, Japan and other foreign powers in Africa through partnerships touted to promote social, economic and political development.

However, it is important to consider that the partnership for development between the Russian Federation and African states is underpinned on the latter’s resources and its potency as a captive market and a polity with visible fault lines that could be exploited for the former’s benefit.

According to the Declaration of the First Russia-Africa Summit, the Russian Federation and African states seek to enhance political cooperation; security cooperation; trade and economic cooperation; legal cooperation; scientific, technical, humanitarian, and information cooperation; and cooperation in environmental protection.

Brief History of Russia’s Interest & Involvement in Africa

Arnaud Kalika documents that Moscow’s interest in Africa has its origins in the late nineteenth century following the Congress of Berlin held in 1885 when European powers divided Africa into colonial combs. With Russia’s exclusion from the annexation process, Moscow never colonized any African territory.

Following the establishment of the United Soviets Socialist Republics (USSR) in 1922 and the convention of the fourth Congress of the Communist International, Kalika notes that Moscow set grounds to wrestle with the capitalist world with discussions on three fundamental issues: “the African question”, slavery, and the responsibility of the United States of America. This marked Moscow’s formal intentions to be a major player in global geopolitics.

During the Cold War, Moscow forged alliances with a number of African states based on both hard power and soft power. Hard power entails the use of military means to spread an entity’s influence. As documented by Jack Griffiths, the Soviet Union increased its supply of arms in countries around the world including Africa. In particular, countries that the Soviet Union supplied arms include Ethiopia, Angola, Algeria, present day Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), Mozambique, Morocco and South Africa.

Guinea and Egypt were also beneficiaries of the Soviet Union’s foreign policy during the Cold War. Newly independent Guinea (then under the leadership of Sekou Toure) in particular had pronounced relations with the Soviet Union as noted by History.com:

“More troubling for U.S. officials, however, was Guinea’s open courting of Soviet aid and money and signing of a military assistance agreement with the Soviet Union. By 1960, nearly half of Guinea’s exports were going to eastern bloc nations and the Soviets had committed millions of dollars of aid to the African republic. Toure was also intrigued by Mao’s communist experiments in China…”

Moscow’s global ambitions and footprints in Africa were also advanced through soft power. This was primarily done through the People’s Friendship University of Russia located in Moscow. An article titled “History of Russia-Africa links” indicates that the goal of the Friendship University was to educate young people from Africa, Asia and Latin America with some of Africa’s former presidents such as Thabo Mbeki and Jose Eduardo dos Santos having studied at the institution.

Post-Cold War Russia-Africa Relations

The end of the Cold War and disintegration of the Soviet Union into fifteen states including Russia thawed Moscow’s relations with Africa. Collapse of the Russian economy was marked by massive GDP contraction, huge budget deficits, food scarcity, a dysfunctional tax system, a totally weakened currency, and over-the-roof corruption.

Collapse of the Russian economy between 1991 and 1999 affected Moscow’s geopolitical ambitions in Africa. It is documented that the Russian government closed down nine embassies and three consulates, massively cut down the number of staff in the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs and also did away with aid programmes.

Russia’s economic recovery from 2000 with Vladmir Putin as president renewed her global geopolitical interests. Jakob Hedenskog notes that since 2000, Russia has played an integral role regarding UN peacekeeping operations in Africa by sending troops, expertise and military observers. Russia’s economic recovery post-2000 is also characterized by an increase in the volume of arms and military equipment exported to Africa.

Moscow’s post-Cold War relations with Africa lean toward military support and arms trade. Analysis by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) indicates that between 2014 and 2018, Russia accounted for 49% of arms imports to North Africa and 28% to Sub-Saharan Africa. These figures for the two regions were higher than that for the United States of America and China.

For instance, USA arms imports to North Africa between 2014 and 2018 was 15% and 7.1% for Sub-Saharan Africa. China’s arms imports over the same period of time was 10% for North Africa and 24% for Sub-Saharan Africa.

Key Considerations

Russia’s foray into Africa is underpinned on fundamental interests ranging from natural resources to military strategy among others. Such interests inform key considerations for the future or success and/or failure of Russia’s renewed interest in Africa.

Natural Resources

A report by the Swedish Defence Research Agency indicates that Russia has a shortage of natural resources such as titanium, chrome, mercury and manganese and coltan among others. The report cites Russia’s presence in Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) where it is involved in extraction of coltan, cobalt, gold and diamonds. Russia is also present in Central African Republic (CAR) busy extracting uranium and diamonds. Russia also benefits from Africa’s agricultural produce with one-third of its African imports being agricultural mainly cocoa, coffee, potatoes and fruits. Regarding natural resources, Russia largely benefits and is set to benefit more from its relations with Africa.

Trade

It is estimated that trade between Russia and Africa amounted to about $20 billion in 2018. Of this, Africa imported products estimated to be worth $17.4 billion while it exported commodities worth approximately $3 billion with Russia benefiting to a tune of $14.5 billion. However, analysis by BBC indicates that Russia’s trading relationship with Africa is dwarfed by Africa’s volume of trade with China, India, USA, Japan and the European Union.

Military Cooperation and Strategic Interests

Johan Burger’s article details crucial information in relation to Russia’s military and strategic interests in Africa. Russia has established or intends to establish military bases in Sudan along the Red Sea Coast, Somaliland, and Egypt. Another publication highlights Russia’s military bases in Madagascar, Mozambique, and Guinea. Lately, the Central African Republic intends to host a Russian military base.

Russia’s strategic interests also include the establishment (completed or planned) of nuclear plants in Sudan, Ethiopia, and most recently Rwanda.

Debt Burden

Africa was greatly affected by the debt crisis of the 1980s and 90s. Currently, concerns have been raised about China’s debt-trap diplomacy (read here, here and here). Russia could avoid similar criticism by fashioning deals that do not overburden African countries with debts. The Russian government may also learn from Africa’s recent economic relations with the Chinese government. African governments could also avoid loans from Russia due to unpopular opinion among Africans against external borrowing. During the Russia-Africa Summit, the Russian government wrote-off more than $20 billion in debt accumulated by African countries in the Soviet era.

Shrinking Democratic Space?

Moscow has made clear its intentions in Africa; to be economic and military in nature. However, Russia could as well jeopardize the growth and development of democratic institutions in Africa. Though its post-Cold War relations with Africa are not hinged on communism, certainly Russia could negatively influence Africa’s elections or engender political instability.

Sitati Wasilwa is a political economist and an analyst/commentator on public policy, governance, geopolitics and geoeconomics.

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It’s Not Just the Data. It’s Politics

By Sitati Wasilwa

Data has always influenced government operations and in the process used as a tool to score political goals. History indicates that invention of statistical procedures has often been instrumental in redistribution of economic resources and economic planning.

Ideally, national budgets should be formulated based on data collected by government. The accuracy or inaccuracy of the data may lead to attainment or lack thereof of expected policy outcomes. A blog article published by the Center for Global Development (CDG) highlights why bad data is synonymous with African governments. The authors highlight that the political economy of bad data arises from factors such as lack of effective checks and balances on financial and reputational rewards associated with data, political interference and inadequate and inconsistent funding of statistical agencies.

Recently, the Kenyan government presided over a week-long national population census with fundamental concerns raised about personal data security and credibility of the exercise. A few days before the onset of the national population census, Uhuru Kenyatta assented the Statistics Amendment Bill into law (Statistics Act 2019) arguably to counter opposition to credibility of the process and outcome.

Need to Worry

A new clause in the Statistics Act 2019 allows for the cancellation, revision or adjustment of data deemed to be inaccurate. Well, this may quickly address the anomalies of bad data but considering the big brother role of government, there is need to worry about the eventuality of data manipulation. Manipulation of data (data on population, food security, Gross Domestic Product, inflation, affirmative action, public debt, wage bill, education etc.) will lead to formulation of distorted policies or lack of accountability from the national government.

Kenya’s rising public debt and consistent failure of the Jubilee administration to deliver on its big promises set stage for manipulation of data to gain political capital. Latest statistical information from the Central Bank of Kenya indicates that the total public debt amounted to Kshs.5.809 trillion as at June 2019.

It will not be a surprise in case the national government, the Executive in particular, resorts to present manipulated data to indicate that all is well in regards to the level of public debt. This would involve understating or misreporting the actual amount of public debt.

Why public debt? It is spiraling upwards at an alarming rate and the performance of the economy is not sufficient to offset it, and politicians serving in the corrupt Jubilee administration would want to score political goals as far as borrowing is concerned with the 2022 general elections fast approaching.

GDP statistics may also be doctored by the regime ostensibly to paint a rosy picture to current and prospective ‘development partners’. ‘Development partners are religiously obsessed with fanciful GDP growth rates and the Executive would easily manipulate GDP data either to borrow more or not to scare the Chinese government and other debtors, on Kenya’s inability to meet its debt obligations. Lorenzo Fioramonti documents in his book, “Gross Domestic Problem”, that GDP is “an extremely powerful political tool” and “also a powerful propaganda tool”.

Assuring the Chinese that the debt mill is not running out of steam would be important for guarding Kenya’s sovereignty as Beijing may want to take hold of the latter’s resources such as the port of Mombasa or the oil in Turkana among others. China took over Malaysia’s key infrastructural project after Malaysia failed to service Chinese loans.

Last year, concerns were raised about the possibility of the Chinese government taking over the port of Mombasa and the then Auditor General Edward Ouko weighed in on the matter pointing out the possibility of Beijing annexing the infrastructural facility.

Kenyans have to be more worried about their privacy considering failed political projects like the Huduma Number. Huduma Number is undemocratic. The move by the Executive to force people to register for a dubious project even with a court order stating that the registration should be voluntary negates the rights and freedoms of the masses.

Dim Future?

In a world where data mining is a cash cow, Kenyans risk having their personal information misused. Cambridge Analytica demonstrated how to profit from data in the era of fast-paced technological advancement. Never mind that the firm was hired by the Jubilee administration to exploit Kenya’s socio-political fault lines in the lead up to the 2017 general elections.

The 2022 general elections may witness an intensified approach in reference to the use of big data as a political strategy. But who cares? The big brother government? Certainly not. Parliament no longer advocates for the goodwill of the masses. Although the Huduma Bill promises to protect personal data, the government cannot be trusted. Selfish interests trample collective interests. And government mandarins are without doubt more selfish.

Having the right data and good intentions would help the government and its agencies plan efficiently especially on food security, education and healthcare. Planning is a political process and data is an effective political and propaganda tool which could easily sabotage democracy. Kenya could as well be a statistic of politicizing data.

The writer is a political economist and consultant on governance and public policy. He blogs at sitatiwasilwa.home.blog and savicltd.wordpress.com (sitatiwasilwa13@gmail.com).

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On Kenya’s Political Economy of Inequality, Class Struggle and the Deep State

By Sitati Wasilwa

Karl Marx, branded as The Angry Oracle, writes in The Communist Manifesto that “the history of all hitherto existing society is the history of class struggles.” This is absolutely true considering that human societies in the course of time have had distinct power relations based on socioeconomic inequality; the rich or wealthy individuals dominating the low-income individuals.

As much as Marx is vilified by the dreaded capitalists, rogue capitalists doubling up as notorious neoliberals for that matter, his contributions to understanding the economic, social and political organization of man is highly regarded. Case in point is an article about Marx’s relevance published by the mainstream The Economist magazine in 2018 while marking the bicentenary of his birth.

The eventual rise of neoliberalism in 1970s and 80s, and thereafter its spread around the world by the Bretton Woods missionaries castigated any policies hinged on Marx’s ideas. The omniscient policy missionaries of the World Bank, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) including the United States’ Treasury Department proclaimed a new age of prosperity by advocating policies such as austerity (cutting government spending and increasing taxes), deregulation, trade liberalization and privatization with market fundamentalism serving as the common denominator.

Kenya is just but one of the states forced to embrace the ideals of neoliberalism by the hawk-eyed and hard-nosed policy merchants shuttling globally to proclaim economic salvation on the surface but imperialistic adventures underneath.

Manufacturing people’s consent is one of the surest ways to exert an entity’s dominance. The neoliberals succeeded in promoting inequality by preaching the relevance of their policy maxim by identifying the ‘Chicago School’ as the benchmark for economics curricula around the world. The outcome was the inebriate adoption of the ‘Chicago School’ curricula in the teaching of economics that religiously emphasizes free markets, a gravely utopian notion.

And sadly that is the kind of economics taught at Kenyan and African learning institutions. Dedicated faithful gloriously teaching neoliberal economics without any mark for critical thinking intentionally avoid teaching students about the relevance of the so called heretics such as Karl Marx, Thomas Sankara, Frantz Fanon and others who would help promote the understanding of class differences and the subject matter of inequality.

Noam Chomsky in his book “Who Rules the World?” writes on inequality while making reference to the exclusion of the low-income individuals and non-political class from the political system. According to Chomsky, the tiny sector at the apex of a political system largely determines the policy choices pursued by governments. Certainly, whoever controls the political system controls the mechanisms for wealth creation, and ultimately the functioning of an economy.

If Chomsky’s account of power relations is anything to go by, then Kenya is a typical example of a country reeling on inequality. According to Oxfam International, 0.1% of Kenya’s population (approximately 8,300 people) owns more wealth than the bottom 99% (over 44 million people).

Of course Kenya’s case demonstrates that prosperity after all is not a trickle-down affair, where excesses of the tiny top in terms of wealth accumulation does not guarantee collective socioeconomic success. Doubts cast on the relevance of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) as a measure of prosperity by a significant number of Kenyans underline why the country’s much touted economic prosperity is more of a fairy tale on one hand and political rhetoric on the other.

Lorenzo Fioramonti, in his book “Gross Domestic Problem”, notes that GDP is more than just a number since it also serves as a powerful political tool. All states, Kenya included, often use GDP figures to paint a rosy picture of how the ruling parties or administrations (regimes) are working so hard to improve the economic well-being of the masses.

Additionally, a 2009 report by the Beyond GDP Commission indicates that GDP should be considered as a measure of market production and not as a measure of economic well-being of which governments have embraced the latter. The report cautions that interchanging the two measures in view of GDP would lead to wrong policy decisions due to distorted information about people’s economic well-being.

Recently, the Kenya National Bureau of Statistics (KNBS) released the 2019 Economic Survey which indicates that the country’s economy expanded by 6.3% in 2018. It is best to consider the figure as growth recorded in view of market production and not an improvement in the economic well-being of Kenyans.

Notably, a significant number of Kenyans casted doubts on the importance of the ‘6.3% expansion of the GDP’ when the cost of living is currently high, and they are right.

Prevalence of growing inequality and an intense class struggle in Kenya are hardly reflected in the ‘impressive’ GDP growth rates the country has realized in the last decade. Rampant embezzlement of the public’s resources, money laundering, the gambling and betting craze serve as indications of a country defined by class struggle and inequality.

High rates of unemployment and underemployment are pointers of an economy that only works for the few and negates the ‘beautiful’ statistical data cherished by the regime’s mandarins especially on the significance of GDP expansion.

Difficulties by the commons in accessing high quality education, better healthcare, clean water and humane sanitation, and improved food security and nutrition justify Kenya’s GDP growth as merely political rhetoric.

Various reports indicate that Kenya is a hot-bed of money laundering and illicit financial flows. A 2017 report by the African Development Bank indicates that a total of US$10.6 billion had been stashed in foreign banks as from 1970 to 2010. In 2018, one of the leading local dailies uncovered the operations of an international money laundering syndicate based in Kenya.

Another local daily also published an account of money laundering activities while primarily referring to the content of a report published by the Bureau for International Narcotics and Law Enforcement Affairs on International Narcotics Control Strategy.

Weeks ago, a leading Kenyan think-tank released a report implicating Kenya and Uganda as conduits for illicit financial flows fueling South Sudan’s war economy.

Incidences of tax evasion in Kenya by foreign entities and local entities associated with politicians and political wheeler-dealers, and tax increases by the national and county governments serve to widen the inequality gap by enriching few individuals at the expense of the commons.

Addressing inequality should be at the centre of social and economic policies pursued by the national and county governments. If not, the power of the people should fervently advocate for an all-progressive, all-inclusive economic system.

But can this happen? The voting patterns of Kenya’s electorate tell it all. Furthermore, the reality of state capture with invisible hands determining the outcome of elections and who ought to ‘benefit’ from the government would obviously derail any course dedicated to addressing inequality.

Hope cannot change the Republic’s fortunes in view of inequality, class struggle and the actions of the deep state but a resilient and focused public keen on cementing its authority as provided by the Constitution: “We, the people of Kenya…”

Sitati Wasilwa is a political economist, a consultant with Savic Consultants, and a youth leader at Kenya YMCA. (sitatiwasilwa13@gmail.com).

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