Netanyahu’s Israel Out to Profit from Wars and Instability in the Middle East

In April 1986, then US President Ronald Reagan labelled Muammar Gaddafi as the mad dog of the Middle East. This was in the aftermath of a bombing in Berlin that killed two US military officers, with Gaddafi’s residence targeted a few days later, resulting in the death of her adopted daughter. Libyan nationals were believed to have masterminded the attack that targeted a discotheque. Reagan, in his typical American Exceptionalism war-mongering paranoia, claimed Gaddafi intended to create a global Muslim fundamentalist revolution.

Anyway, while the context of the geopolitical tensions in the Middle East then is somewhat different from the current one, there is a constant. Israel continues to dictate what is right and wrong in the region. Its conflicts with Palestine and Lebanon linger. Obviously, the regional and global powers, including Israel’s closest ally, the US, have never been genuine in pursuing peace. Perhaps Reagan would go ahead and praise Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu for the military offensives in Palestine and Lebanon with some soothing melodies. After all, Israel is graciously protecting itself and the interests as well as values of its allies. Such a fabricated pun; polished, packaged, and sold. Well, Netanyahu aptly fits Reagan’s words of the mad dog of the Middle East. I mean, Netanyahu fantasizes about Israel’s expansionist agenda in the region; a rugged, amorphous revolution of sorts.

Israel’s extension of its military operations northwards into Lebanon demonstrates Netanyahu’s pursuit of his fantasies. And this is the problem of giving power to obsessive and arrogant egomaniacs. While wars are as old as humanity, it is illogical to kill innocent civilians in the name of targeting Hezbollah and Hamas militants. Of course, pro-Israel chaps will come out arms up chanting Israel’s right to self-defence in the wake of the October 7 Hamas attacks. Well, fair enough. But where are the limits of Israel’s aggression in the region? Most people – obviously the pro-Israel camps – conveniently forget that the events of October 7 did not occur in a vacuum.

In 2023, before October 7, the Israeli military had killed 205 Palestinians in the occupied West Bank, while the Israeli settlers killed nine. On July 3, Israel conducted a 48-hour military operation targeting the Jenin refugee camp with drones and fighter jets. Earlier on June 19, the Israeli military targeted the occupied West Bank with airstrikes for the first time since the early 2000s. Based on these facts, Netanyahu’s Israel was simply obsessed with provoking retaliatory attacks and a war.

But why is Netanyahu pre-occupied with the petulant fantasies of triggering wars in the region? The primary aim of a colonial, apartheid state is to use violence to further its expansionist agenda. The devil certainly lies in the details! In 2023, the total number of settlement plans and tenders initiated by Israel in the occupied East Jerusalem and the West Bank was higher than in 2022; in fact, the highest ever since 2012. The total number of Israeli settlement advancements increased by 180% in 2023 in a span of five years.

Israel had illegally seized 23.7 km2 of Palestinian land from January to July this year surpassing the total land size grabbed by Israel in the last 20 years collectively. As such, 2024 is historically significant in the course of the Israel-Palestine conflict as it represents the year with the highest ever illegal land grabs by Israel. I am almost certain Netanyahu’s Israel may attempt to re-occupy parts of southern Lebanon like it did from 1985 until 2000. The recent Israeli evacuation orders directed at Lebanese nationals in southern Lebanon strongly signal such a possibility.

Wars serve as golden distractions in the game of power. This is why generational economic heists, racketeering, pilferage, looting, and such always occur during wars. Think of any ongoing or past wars – Sudan, the DRC, Russia-Ukraine, Libya, Iraq, Ethiopia, Afghanistan, and others – and you’ll clearly visualise the battle for resources. Thus, Netanyahu has never been interested in a ceasefire with Hamas. This instinctually and logically informs you that he is obsessed with his expansionist motives to completely dash any hopes of a sovereign Palestinian state.

Prolongation of the Israel-Hamas war and possible escalation of Israel’s offensive against Hezbollah aim at generating obscene profits for the Israeli military-industrial complex. Defence companies form the basis of the military-industrial complex and a war economy is the lifeblood of these firms. In March this year, the Israeli defence company Elbit Systems disclosed an increase in its revenue in the fourth quarter from USD 1.5 billion to USD 1.6 billion on a year-on-year basis thanks to the offensive in the Gaza Strip. Elbit projected to hire an additional 2,000 workers this year compared to 1,000 in 2023. Furthermore, Elbit predicted an increase in sales to the Israeli government in the course of 2024 beyond its USD 1.2 billion usual annual sales. This is against the backdrop of the Israeli government approving a budget anticipated to increase defence spending by USD 5.5 billion annually. Elbit is a microcosm of the profits to be reaped by other defence companies due to the wars.

The prospects of peace are currently narrow in the region. Netanyahu understands he will be ejected out of office if the wars end, especially the Israel-Hamas war. Israel’s allies led by the US cannot force Netanyahu to halt the wars. The US may never want the wars to end for obvious geostrategic reasons. The UN and other multilateral institutions are toothless to push for any meaningful end of the conflicts. But certainly, a wider conflict is in the offing across the region though the firepower of Hezbollah’s allies cannot match that of Israel and its allies. In Clausewitzian sense, war is a continuation of politics by other means. In Machiavelli’s world, there are no morals in politics. However, morality should be enforced when wars degenerate into genocidal ventures. Another Gaza should not be allowed in Lebanon.

Sitati Wasilwa writes and speaks about geopolitical and governance-related issues.

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Kenya’s ‘Gen Z’ Movement is Not Yet Done!

Politics largely gravitates around interests. The history of politics is replete with references to why enmity in politics is illusionary. Kenya is a perfect case study of politics lacking morality, conscience, dignity, and high standards. No wonder Kenya is struggling with the same issues it was battling at independence; disease, poverty, and ignorance. Who is to blame? First, the political leadership has proven to be greedy putting first self-interests at the expense of the common good. Kenya is one of the countries where politics is an avenue to riches. Second, a citizenry is often threatened by fear-mongering and primitive tribal-based politics.

Anyway, here we are. A cornered president forced to embrace his one-time ally and leader during the formative years of the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) party. But why did President William Ruto work with former Prime Minister Raila Odinga in the aftermath of pro-governance protests? Ruto was desperate, so desperate to cling to power. Wasn’t it intriguing to see the globe-trotting president grounded within the Kenyan borders? So far, Ruto has only made one foreign trip in the last two months! 

It is contentious who approached the other between Ruto and Odinga. I guess Ruto made the first move. An important fact to note is that Odinga’s usurping of the youth-led revolutionary moment to consolidate his riches and those of his henchmen was not a surprise. Odinga had earlier cut a deal with Ruto to contest for the chairperson’s position of the African Union Commission (AUC). The award of key ministries to ODM leaders justifies that Odinga may have demanded these after being approached by Ruto to help him consolidate his power. 

Odinga’s Pro-Democracy Credentials and Back-end Deals with Presidents

Odinga’s political union with Ruto has watered down his pro-democracy credentials. These are the sunset years and Odinga understands that he stands no chance of ever being Kenya’s president. He is after cementing the legacy of his four-decade political career by attempting to clinch the coveted AUC chairperson’s post. Odinga has in the past forged political unions with presidents, but the recent one with Ruto is simply deceitful and disgusting. On the streets, on social media…”Odinga took advantage of the blood shed by the youth.” Elitist, progressive-minded, and youthful Odinga’s supporters have certainly withdrawn their support for the veteran politician. 

How does Odinga benefit from these political unions, unholy alliances for that matter, with presidents? Politics is dictated by interests, and as stated for centuries, there are no permanent friends and enemies in politics. Kenyans easily forget that Odinga is a billionaire and one of the wealthiest people in Kenya. We never really care that much to question Odinga’s acquisition of wealth. He is a hard worker, but his political stature and networks earned him these riches. It is documented in several sources that Odinga benefited from the union with Daniel Moi after the 1997 elections by acquiring the controversial molasses plant in Kisumu. Odinga, however, denies this in his autobiography, The Flame of Freedom. 

Let’s crack this further. Moi appointed Odinga as Minister for Energy post-1997 elections. Guess who has interests and investments in the gas industry? Odinga’s East Africa Spectre, a leading manufacturer of liquified petroleum gas cylinders, serves domestic and international markets. The son of Kenya’s first vice president Oginga Odinga insists in his autobiography that his union with Moi was a political strategy to make a second stab at the presidency in 2002. 

Most people claim the formation of the Grand Coalition Government after the 2007/2008 post-election violence was Odinga’s political union with Mwai Kibaki. I strongly differ. Kibaki rigged the 2007 elections which Odinga won. I will excuse Odinga as this was a forced political marriage with Kibaki. This is one of my justifications why Kibaki’s presidency is overrated. 

The March 2018 ‘handshake’ between Odinga and President Uhuru Kenyatta was a strategic blunder for Odinga’s presidential ambitions. First, some of his supporters believed he had betrayed them as several protesters lost their lives in anti-government demonstrations. Second, Odinga embraced Uhuru, a president who seemed not to care about consolidating his power. Anyway, Ruto’s presidency is an outcome of Odinga’s political short-sightedness. 

There are a few critical questions at this point. Has Odinga ever intended to win the presidential elections? Has he been running for the elections not to win but to protect his interests? Is Odinga’s pro-democracy legacy overrated? While Odinga’s pragmatic approach to winning power is somehow understandable, his taking advantage of the death of youth due to the use of excessive force by an incompetent regime dilutes his pro-democracy credentials. 

Ruto’s Project-Launching Spree: ‘Gen Z’ Are Winners

One of Ruto’s economic advisors who swims in bourgeoisie intellectualism and lives in an ivory tower recently claimed that ‘Gen Z’ challenged Ruto to a political contest. David Ndii, probably the most arrogant human south of the Sahara, claimed Ruto has pulled the rug under the Kenyan youth and is on the ground consolidating his support. The Ruto hater turned romanticist of the amorphous, caricatured bottom-up economic model in his usual dismissive tone chided the ‘Gen Z’ for being busy trolling the incompetent administration on social media instead of focusing on 2027. Well, Ndii intentionally forgets his role as troller-in-chief having dismissed the mobilisation on social media prior to the commencement of the protests on June 18 and even more notably on June 25. In June, Ndii sensationally labeled the youth on social media calling for reforms as ‘digital wankers’ who are cowardly to take to the streets. 

Anyway, he is a typical example of a court jester who entertains the king despite an impending political disaster. The fact that President Ruto has traversed villages launching menial projects demonstrates the power of the people. It is funny that Ruto is consolidating his power – anyway, politics is about optics and PR – but of course by mobilising artificial crowds. Optics, PR, and propaganda are effective when running election campaigns; running a government and improving the lives of the people demands competence and meritocracy. On this, Ruto has failed. 

In 2021, I purchased and read a book – Why Do So Many Incompetent Men Become Leaders? The author deconstructs mediocre leaders and sub-par leadership. For instance, the author points out that we have great tolerance for people who are not as talented as they think. He goes on to state: “What it takes to get the job is not just different from, but also sometimes the reverse of, what it takes to do the job.” These are the sub-par metrics demonstrated by Ruto’s leadership. Ruto seems not to believe that Kenyans can protest against his leadership and demand his resignation. He overrates his importance. He demeans the intelligence of Kenyans. 

The project-launching spree will do little to change the course of a popular movement. A movement that is only concerned with high-quality governance and not the creation of wabenzis – mannerless, greedy, grandiose, arrogant politicians competing on who vomits quicker and heavily on Kenyans’ heads. Do not confuse a strategic retreat with a loss or surrender. The launching of dead and menial projects is akin to running on quicksand. And even before the project-launching rendezvous, the unarmed, peaceful ‘Gen Zs’ won, given the cowardly use of excessive force by the security apparatus against them. 

Aluta Continua! Of, For, and By the People

Earlier, I noted that President Ruto overrates or overestimates his capabilities, competence, and popularity – perhaps not as talented as he thinks. The popular, youth-led movement has not been politically nutmegged by the unholy political alliance of Willian Ruto and Raila Odinga. Here are the reasons why the ‘Gen Z’ movement is not yet done.

Economically, Kenya is far from creating decent, meaningful jobs. The Kenyan economy is mounted on weak fundamentals. Our economy can only continue creating conditions for informal, unsustainable jobs meaning that unemployment, underemployment, and poverty will thrive. These are issues that need concrete, long-term plans, and of course, killing corruption. Where do you expect these hungry, unemployed mobs to go? Exported to work as casuals in the Middle East? Drive boda bodas? Be mama mbogas? Reincarnate themselves as fool-proof hustlers? A hungry man is an angry man. 

A huge debt burden, if still poorly managed, will keep the flames of the revolution lit. Major weaknesses that Ruto’s advisors are not burning the midnight oil to sweet-talk him to get over it is his know-it-all attitude, detest for history, and probably his pococurante nature of not reading widely and deeply. Tax hikes will never propel developing, third-world economies to prosperity. A poorly managed, ballooned public debt is a harbinger for additional tax hikes commandeered by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the Ruto-led administration. But we need to be honest; tax increases are not the only ways to manage public debt. Ruto should ruthlessly kill corruption and renegotiate a significant number of existing debts. Otherwise, further tax hikes mean more poverty and you can guess the consequences. 

Related to the above, Ruto should mercilessly cut unnecessary spending. He has poorly performed on this. It seems the floodgates to quick riches and opulence were opened to his cronies as soon as he put down the sword and the constitution. One of Ruto’s pathways to failure is his preference for political expediency at the expense of competence and good results. I wonder about the extent of political debts he owes given his excessively large team of advisors and numerous hangers-on. Their time to eat perhaps! A consequence of untamed spending coupled with a huge debt burden is a higher incidence of poverty, and you expect the ‘Gen Zs’ to surrender…It is naive to think as such. 

Perhaps the final reason; the ‘Gen Zs’ are not cowardly, or they are rather more exposed and woke than their parents. And why do we have to be threatened when we express our dissatisfaction with poor governance? A culture we need to kill in Kenya and Africa is obeying those in power. Such a cowardly, embarrassing piece of advice. Aren’t we taxpayers? Why would a politician think the people are right and matter a great deal during elections, and the same people are perceived as enemies when demanding better leadership? Aluta continua…

The writer, Sitati Wasilwa, is an analyst of geopolitics and governance. His interests include armed conflict, foreign policy, power politics, political economy, leadership, and strategy.

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Kenyan Youth are Protesting Punitive Taxation. How Did We Get Here?

June 18 and 20 will be historically remembered as days when the Kenyan youth dared to rise against an administration perceived as economically oppressive. The protests have been structurally different from previous anti-government demonstrations, except for the use of excessive force by police officers. Never mind that the Kenyan police have a poor human rights history. This is an institution in dire need of reforms, given its systemic decay and corruption stretching over 60 years!

So far, no political party or notable political figure has been involved in organising or leading the protests. For long, Kenya has been accustomed to Raila Odinga leading similar protests. The personality of the protesters is also a stark contrast from the hired ruffians we are used to in previous anti-government protests. The organisation and mobilisation have been a break from the past. Social media platforms, especially X (formerly Twitter) and TikTok, have been instrumental in mobilising.

What’s the issue?

At the centre of the protests are controversial tax proposals. A significant number of Kenyan youth and Kenyans in general perceive the Finance Bill 2024 as economically oppressive. On June 18, shortly after the protests broke out, the ruling coalition announced that unpopular tax proposals had been dropped. These are 16% VAT on bread, VAT on financial services and forex transactions, 2.5% motor vehicle tax, excise duty on vegetable oil, and VAT on sugar transportation. The proposed eco levy on locally manufactured sanitary towels, diapers, motorcycles, tyres, computers, and phones was also dropped. No income tax will be levied on the Social Health Insurance and the Housing Tax.

The Kenya Kwanza administration believed that getting rid of the aforementioned taxes after public pressure would dissipate sentiments against the 2024 Finance Bill. Kenyans protesting against the controversial Bill are demanding its total rejection and do not want any amendments. This indicates other underlying grievances that the ruling coalition has chosen to ignore. And this is the problem when you have a president who believes he is larger than life, brilliant, and swims in illusions of grandeur.

Underlying grievances

The William Ruto-led administration has been less effective in addressing the rising cost of living. Ruto took office when the economy was at a crossroads with high public debt and slow economic recovery in the aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic. His administration opted to ravenously increase taxes as a means to raise revenue to settle part of the public debt. This never sat well with a good number of Kenyans who are battling poverty and reduced household budgets. Since September 2022, conversations in the streets, villages, and thoroughfares of major urban centres have centred around nicknaming President Ruto as Zacchaeus the Tax Collector.

There is seething anger, especially among schooled Kenyans, about the role of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in the country’s economic management. The Ruto-led administration’s foreign policy leans heavily towards the West. The IMF is on record directing the Ruto administration to fast-track taxation measures to increase revenue. There is a big disconnect between the IMF’s demands and the on-ground reality. Making a decent living as a Kenyan is currently difficult.

This is not the first time that the IMF has played an active role in Kenya’s economic management by pushing for structural adjustment policies (SAPs) as a means of economic recovery. In the 1990s, the IMF pushed for similar SAPs that led to cuts in spending on healthcare, education, and physical infrastructure. These unrealistic policies also led to an increase in unemployment,, with a significant number of Kenyans retrenched from the public sector. The second-hand industry well-known locally as mitumba flourished courtesy of the SAPs. The policies simply killed the textile industry. The Ruto administration has bent backward the arc of history. Presently, there are constraints in financing public education, public healthcare, and other critical sectors.

Some of the legislators and ministers in the current government are not shy of displaying opulent lifestyles. Convincingly, these are proceeds from looted public resources. The youthful protesters are disgusted with this shameless exhibition of wealth by politicians whose salaries do not match their expensive watches, belts, clothes, cars, and houses, among other material stuff.

Arrogant political leadership

The Kenya Kwanza politicians, including the president, are arrogant and corrupted with power. Since taking over just over 20 months ago, Kenyans who question the ruling coalition for accountability are lectured on how President Ruto is brilliant enough to turn around the economy and offer decisive political leadership. He simply lacks the fundamentals to lead us towards prosperity of any kind. It is the Kenya Kwanza administration that has branded Kenya the “Singapore of Africa.” Clearly, the bottom-of-the-barrel stuff. Nothing done by this administration comes close to Singapore, a country whose GDP was almost at par with Kenya’s in the early 1960s.

Singapore’s governance is anchored on meritocracy, pragmatism, and honesty. The Ruto-led administration has demonstrated that any Tom, Dick, or Harry can be appointed to senior government positions without merit as long as they are sycophants. The Cabinet tells it all! The punitive taxes implemented and proposed indicate the lack of pragmatism to the on-ground reality. It is impractical to overtax people who are still battling the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic and other systemic economic issues. Corruption defines the values or lack thereof of the Kenya Kwanza administration. This is far off from honesty.

Governing by lying is a leisurely walk on quicksand. You can win elections by lying but the same hardly works when running government. Most youthful Kenyans are simply fed up with regurgitated lies and endless promises. President Ruto has been heckled several times in public rallies over the last year. Embarrassingly, high-ranking Kenya Kwanza coalition politicians are arrogantly claiming that they are happy to have shifted the conversation from personality cults to economic issues. This is a howler.

History of resistance

Kenyans may not be the ideal individuals to publicly demonstrate against the government. However, Kenyans have historically resisted oppression and advocated for reforms. The fight for independence is a critical juncture that highlights the public’s pushback against oppression. Jomo Kenyatta may have been lucky to escape public outrage and fight for reforms even with the assassinations of the flamboyant Tom Mboya and the courageous J. M. Kariuki as well as the eminent Pio Gama Pinto. However, the less-spoken coup attempts of 1965 and 1971 highlight the dissatisfaction with the status quo.

Arap Moi, the passing cloud turned autocrat, endured a fair share of resistance in his 24-year presidency. First, the 1982 coup attempt which he was lucky to have his presidency saved. Second, the fight for the reintroduction of the multiparty political system in the early 1990s. Moi conceded to public pressure. Finally, Moi and his party KANU were sent packing in the December 2022 elections. It was always unimaginable that Moi and KANU would be dethroned from power. Voters massively voted for the opposition NARC coalition and its candidate Mwai Kibaki to teach Moi a lesson.

Kibaki squandered the best opportunity to change Kenya forever after two years in power. However, the 2005 constitutional referendum and the violent protests in the aftermath of the 2007 elections demonstrated the majority’s dissatisfaction with his leadership albeit robust economic growth. Uhuru Kenyatta’s regime oversaw punitive laws such as the amendment of the electoral laws. Uhuru was lucky to escape public resistance in his second term following the infamous March 18, 2018, handshake with Raila Odinga.

What does the future hold?

The protests are unlikely to stop. They will likely intensify as the Finance Bill 2024 awaits to go through the remaining legislative stages. The ruling coalition has the numbers to punitively pass the Bill. But these historical protests will change Kenya’s political history going forward.

President Ruto will be lucky to get reelected in 2027. Ruto won the presidential elections with a margin of around 200,000 votes in an election in which approximately eight million voters did not vote. The majority of those who did not vote were youthful voters. The youth are going to register and vote en masse come 2027. No way Ruto and his henchmen will survive the tsunami.

There is strength in numbers. I foresee a scenario where the youth will register their parties and field their candidates. Nothing definitely stops them. Around 80% of Kenya’s population is under 35 years. The median age of the Kenyan population is 19 years. I do not see any way out for the Ruto-led administration to change the economic fortunes of the youth in the remaining three years of his presidency. The chickens are fast coming home to roost. It is not yet uhuru for us!

Sitati Wasilwa is a geopolitical and governance analyst. This article is a personal opinion and has no relation to his institutional affiliations.

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General F. O. Ogolla: A Farewell through the Lenses

Life is fickle! General Francis Omondi Ogolla seemed to have come to terms with human mortality. Last year at a church service, General Ogolla said, “In my military life, I have come to learn the reality of human mortality. I have appreciated that life is finite, humans are mortal, and life is short. One morning, you are with a healthy colleague. The next minute he is ashes and gone.” Sounds like a premonition!

April 18, 2024, will forever be etched in Kenya’s history. The death of the Chief of the Defence Forces (CDF) of the Republic of Kenya, General Francis Omondi Ogolla, the first for a sitting military chief in the country, is historical. General Ogolla’s appointment itself was historical; he was the first CDF from the Luo ethnic group. Then again, the Luos have endured painful moments in Kenya’s history with the controversial deaths of high-profile, promising, and ambitious figures. Tom Mboya and Robert Ouko are revered in death as they were in life.

One could definitely argue that Mboya was not a Luo proper; originally, he was from the Abasuba ethnic group. Nonetheless, the Abasuba are culturally assimilated by the Luo. Anyway, Mboya, Ouko, and Ogolla could have been cut from different clothes, but these were polished and suave gentlemen. Mboya stands out as the most brilliant politician in Kenya’s history. He was outstanding given his achievements for the 39 years he lived. He is the type of human who perhaps appears once every 100 years. This is how legendary musician Sam Mangwana described his compatriot and king of Rhumba, the Congo Colossus, and Grand Master Franco Luambo Makiadi.

Ouko, an affable, charismatic, and charming personality just like Mboya, could possibly have emerged as a key player on the national political scene. Ogolla may have enjoyed the privilege of breathing his last while at the peak of his military career. Mboya and Ouko were hardly at the peak of their political careers when they were assassinated.

General Ogolla’s death has certainly evoked these memories. Wild speculations are rife on whether his death was pre-planned or otherwise. I am tempted to avoid this debate, but I will certainly join the bandwagon. The circumstances surrounding Ogolla’s death are suspicious. There are claims that the aircraft initially scheduled to ferry the General was suddenly swapped at the last minute to transport a senior government official. This is unprofessional, at least if the claims are true.

Kenya has a notoriety for hero-worshipping senior government officials and politicians. This is no surprise for a country where politicians and their wheeler dealers prefer opulent lifestyles over intentional, goal-oriented policymaking and competent public service.

On April 2, 2015, during the Garissa University terrorist attack, a police aircraft that was to transport commandos to battle terrorists was used to fly the family of a senior police officer from holiday. In January last year, a high-cost, custom-made operational helicopter previously used for surveillance was upgraded and handed over to Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua for official and unofficial use. Quite absurd! There could be other similar instances.

Nonetheless, there are harsh realities that the Kenyan government must confront during and after investigations surrounding the helicopter crash that led to the General’s demise. Five military aircraft crashes in the last 12 months is a worrying trend the Kenya Defence Forces (KDF) and the government should address. This is a terrible record for a military that is highly respected regionally and globally for its professionalism. The Cabinet Secretary of Defence Aden Duale, escaped death by a whisker when a KDF military helicopter hit a tree and crashed while taking off in Turkana in July last year.

A comprehensive audit of the entire KDF aircraft unit for hardware and personnel should be carried out, and the results publicised. Similarly, the outcome of the investigations into the cause of the crash of the helicopter ferrying General Ogolla and other military officers should be made public. But the investigations could take a long time; rumours indicate probably between six and 12 months or more. Gone are the days of the government hiding behind the curtains and not publicly sharing so-called sensitive and confidential information. From a security standpoint, though, there are concerns about publicly availing such information. However, at least the Parliament should be briefed about these results.

General Ogolla had an amiable personality. He came across as having a cool, calm, and collected personality. His passion for physical fitness was easily seen. He was physically fit at 62 years old and consistently exercised in the morning at the Ulinzi Sports Complex. A KDF bulletin reiterates his philosophy on holistic health for military officers. Ogolla was outspoken about the role of physical fitness for military officers and its benefits in sustaining discipline and good, long-term health. As he remarked, “Fitness is important in any military in the world, and it keeps you stronger, healthier, and more versatile.”

Ogolla’s predecessor General Robert Kibochi, was also a fitness enthusiast. In an interview, Kibochi disclosed a plaque in his office that read, “I respect fit people.” These two were visibly fit and in good shape. A good number of their predecessors had unpleasant potbellies. Physical fitness is a hallmark of a disciplined soldier. This also applies to police officers. Comparatively, Kenyan military officers are in better shape than police officers. I naturally frown upon men and women in uniform who are physically unfit.

Leading by example is a trait that General Ogolla embraced. This is a critical lesson for those in leadership or aspiring to lead. I have interacted with, read about, and observed leaders. Unfortunately, a majority never leads from the front and is full of mediocrity, wimpishness, and incompetence. Ogolla died while literally leading from the front. His morning exercise routine occasionally alongside different military units reinforces Ogolla’s mantra to lead by example.

How best will Ogolla be remembered? For attempting to overturn the victory of William Ruto as president-elect in 2022, as he claimed? As the shortest serving military chief in Kenya’s history so far? As Kenya’s first CDF who died in office? As another high-profile personality whose death is likely to remain a mystery for ages? He was a remarkable husband and father, and a steadfast philanthropist in his community in Alego Usonga. I will remember him for the little things that made him outstanding.

Sitati Wasilwa is a geopolitical analyst with an interest in political economy, foreign policy, political risk, and armed conflict. He is passionate about leadership, strategy, and military-related issues.

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Weah’s Loss a Win for Political Accountability & Lessons for Incumbents

President George Weah recently lost the presidential election run-off to opposition candidate and former Vice President Joseph Boakai. Both the first and second rounds were closely contested. Weah won in the first round. Weah was gracious in his defeat; he called for the prioritisation of national interests above personal and party interests. This is perhaps uncommon in African politics, where incumbents could rig votes or attempt to use any means possible to subvert the wishes of the majority. Besides. Weah’s defeat is a key lesson in political accountability in Africa; political leaders who perform poorly do not deserve second chances.

Weah’s loss is not the first election in Africa where a sitting president or ruling party has been voted out. In Zambia in 1991, the country’s founding father, Kenneth Kaunda, lost in the first-ever multiparty elections to Fred Chiluba. Kaunda had served 27 years as president. Still in Zambia, President Edward Lungu lost to Hakainde Hichilema in 2021. Lungu’s administration became unpopular due to poor economic management, corruption, and oppressing political opponents. In Ghana in 2016, then-President John Mahama lost to current President Nana Akufo-Addo, chiefly due to poor economic management. In Nigeria, Goodluck Jonathan lost to Muhammadu Buhari in 2015 on issues related to the threat of terrorism posed by Boko Haram.

In the Ivory Coast in 2010, Laurent Gbagbo lost to Alassane Ouattara due to poor governance. In Senegal, the once-popular Abdoulaye Wade lost to Macky Sall in the presidential election in 2012. This was after Wade ran for an unconstitutional third term. Also, his administration had performed poorly on economic management. In Malawi, Joyce Banda lost to Peter Mutharika in 2014. In 2020, Mutharika in turn lost to current President Lazarus Chakwera. Poor governance was the major cause of the losses of the incumbents. Back home, the independence party – the Kenya African National Union (KANU) – lost the presidential election to the opposition National Alliance Rainbow Coalition (NARC) in 2002. There is no doubt that former President Mwai Kibaki lost the 2007 election but remained in power due to rigging. KANU had ruined the economy and fashioned political oppression. Kibaki was not saintly. Reneging on the coalition power-sharing agreement was the primary factor that bred resentment against his presidency.

Democracy, Accountability & Stability

The outcome of Liberia’s presidential election and the aforementioned defeat of incumbents and ruling parties demonstrate that Africa is not a graveyard of democracy. Anyway, democracy is relative and its definition and practice are fundamentally contextual. Nonetheless, free and fair elections can fast-track political accountability in Africa. Such elections are avenues for the citizenry to vet the performance of political leaders and parties. Political accountability via free and fair elections is critical for long-term political stability. But of course, political stability is not only determined by credible elections as it is also a function of other factors; cross-border regional and global terrorism, coups sponsored by foreign powers, and unrest triggered by economically unwise and oppressive policies by the Bretton Woods institutions.

Political instability in Burkina Faso and Mali is proof that the threat of terrorism and armed rebellion affect a country’s stability. Both countries have had several coups in the last eleven or so years due to the inability of governments to combat insurgency and armed rebellion. France has a history of orchestrating coups in some Francophone African countries.

Lessons for Incumbents & Countries Set to Hold Elections

Incumbents in African countries accustomed to unfair electoral processes may find it difficult to learn from Weah’s loss. Leaders and political parties in countries that attempt to hold regular and open elections might draw lessons from Liberia’s presidential election results. It will be interesting to watch how the current presidents and ruling parties fair on in Ghana, Malawi, and Kenya in elections scheduled for 2024, 2025, and 2027 respectively.

In Ghana, the ruling New Patriotic Party (NPP) is racing against time to convince the electorate that it is capable of addressing the effects of a huge public debt after eight years in power. Interestingly, the NPP has picked Vice President Mahamudu Bawumia as its candidate. Bawumia, an economist and former central banker, harshly criticised former President Mahama’s administration for economic mismanagement in the lead-up to the 2016 elections. The NPP goes into the 2024 elections having not bettered the lives of ordinary Ghanaians.

Malawi’s President Chakwera is battling mounting opposition due to corruption and nepotism. Chakwera’s pre-election promises to reform Malawi’s governance system are seemingly fizzling out. He is now disposed to piecemeal, knee-jerk policy decisions to win popular support such as his recent ban on foreign travel for his ministers and himself. Kenya’s William Ruto – a much acclaimed political genius but who is currently overestimating his popularity – could as well face an uphill task in his reelection bid. Ruto is bullish in his dismissal of the hostility that is gradually building up against his administration due to tax hikes and the cost of living that is on an upward spiral. He recently disparaged legislators allied with his United Democratic Alliance party when they raised concerns about his administration’s rising unpopularity. Credible elections can improve the performance culture of Africa’s political leadership.

Sitati Wasilwa is a political economist.

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Book Review: Moi’s Kleptocracy and Its Spillovers

In the book, Moi’s Kleptocracy and Its Spillovers, the author, Duncan Ndegwa attempts to relate Kenya’s social, political and economic challenges to Moi’s presidency. Ndegwa was the first post-independence Secretary to the Cabinet and Head of the Public Service. He also served as Governor of the Central Bank of Kenya from 1967 to 1982.

Ndegwa argues, though unconvincingly in most cases, that Moi is squarely to blame for his kleptocratic tendencies and the after-effects two decades later.

Primarily, the book sounds more of an attempt by the author to settle scores with former president Moi, and is analytically shallow and jumbled up to measure up to its title. Perhaps much thought and effort were not put into writing it.

It is illogical to defend Moi’s presidency, but it’s irrational not to strongly condemn graft engineered by Jomo Kenyatta and Mwai Kibaki. Ndegwa notes that Moi eroded all the advances made during Kenyatta’s presidency. He goes ahead to state how Moi resorted to divide-and-rule tactics to impoverish Kenyans.

In a way, Ndegwa tries to avoid the weight of history; Moi simply echoed Kenyatta’s tune of divide-and-rule! Isolating the Kenyatta presidency from Moi’s is historical backhandedness.

The author comes close to appreciating the role of Kenyatta’s era in laying the foundation for graft in Moi’s regime. First, he points out the recommendation of the Ndegwa Commission (chaired by the author) in aiding corruption – civil servants were allowed to engage in business even with the government as a measure to enable them to earn extra income thereby hindering corruption. This remains one of the biggest historical blunders in Kenya.

Second, Ndegwa points out the sentiments of Kenyatta to police officers who were on a go-slow a year or so before the valueless commission was formed; “President Kenyatta advised them to use the power of their crown to make ends meet…the police took Kenyatta’s advice to use their crown to extort bribes from lawbreakers…”. However, he does not call out any of these historical missteps. Anyway, he unapologetically profiles Kenyatta as “a giant of destiny.”

One thing Ndegwa somehow gets right is the power politics and the geopolitical landscape during the Cold War in light of the support of Moi’s regime by the so-called Western democratic states. He notes that the financial resources advanced to the Moi regime were used to facilitate corruption in Kenya.

In addition, Ndegwa points out some of the failed projects initiated by Moi such as the Nyayo Tea Zones, the Nyayo milk project, the Nyayo Bus Corporation and the Nyayo Pioneer Car Project. He hilariously describes the launch of the car project noting that “Once the ceremony ended it was found that the fuel pipe of the car was not connected to the pump neither was the distributor cable in place.”

However, he cantankerously mocks the products of Moi’s initiated 8-4-4 education system claiming that it “has produced hundreds of thousands of witless graduates who find no fault in destroying institutional property.”

It could be true that 8-4-4 was not the best education system compared with its predecessor the 7-4-2-3 system. But it is ingenuine for Ndegwa to unashamedly brand the witless nature of its products. The challenges of the 8-4-4 system should be holistically considered. In essence, the structural adjustment policies (SAPs) by the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank punctured the 8-4-4 system. The SAPs reduced spending on the social sector in favour of the much acclaimed economically productive sectors.

Ndegwa intentionally bypasses the furthering of corruption and other governance challenges under the Kibaki administration. He adopts the role of a fence sitter and goes to the extent of profiling the failures of Kibaki as spillovers from the Moi era which is somehow right. But Kibaki’s major failures include perpetuating systemic corruption and ethnic chauvinism which fanned the flames of the post-election violence (PEV).

Amid other half-truths on Kibaki’s political sainthood, the author claims that Western states were behind the International Criminal Court (ICC) cases in which Uhuru Kenyatta and William Ruto as well as other four people were accused of facilitating the PEV. Ndegwa, intentionally or otherwise, fails to appreciate the fact that the ICC cases only materialised after joint efforts by Kibaki and Raila Odinga to champion the formation of a local tribunal collapsed on the floor of Parliament. In fact, Uhuru and Ruto were vocal on their preference for the ICC route.

A keen reader may easily lose interest in the book with Ndegwa’s lame description of Uhuru in the lead up to the 2013 elections as follows: “His political pedigree, his personal qualities and his journey (he was 52 in October 2013), all mark him as the youngest, the best and the brightest.” I wish these attributes would be positively correlated with competence and governmental performance. Uhuru and Ruto have so far performed dismally.

It is unclear what Ndegwa drives at by claiming that Kikuyus, especially of his generation, are great admirers of the ancient Jews and of the Old Testament. His analogy of Jewish entrepreneurial success with that of the Agikuyu exceptionalism is a factual blunder and borders on ethnic chauvinism.

Spuriously, the author castigates devolution insinuating it would increase marginalisation and thus the level of poverty. His argument is premised on the majimbo system of governance at the dawn of independence. Ndegwa incoherently argues against devolution without looking at the bigger picture of its benefits. Neither does he take into account the regional economic imbalances and ethnic dynamism of Kenya. Appreciating the regional and ethnic marginalisation advanced by the colonial and successive post-colonial governments would have prompted Ndegwa to embrace devolution.

Overall, the book is thin on historical facts given its weighty title. One would have expected it to portray well-defined contours of the plunder under Moi’s presidency and its generational effects. It passes as a rushed text that may not stand the test of time.

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Reviving African Indigenous Political Systems for A New Dawn of Development

The next paragraph is the abstract of an essay that I wrote sometime in 2021 titled “Reviving African Indigenous Political Systems for A New Dawn of Development“. A copy of the essay can be downloaded here: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1V50464cFAbDny0kYq18-PZ7gGuCNTMmL/view?usp=sharing

“Africa has a chequred social, economic and political history. This essay examines the essence of reviving the so-called indigenous political systems, a move that could help create a new dawn of development in Africa. The essay discusses how historical events such as slavery, colonialism and neo-colonialism shaped the African political systems. It also highlights the need to revive the African political systems that will enhance the eroded dignity of the African people in addition to having such governance systems based on a unique value-driven approach based on the Ubuntu philosophy. Botswana’s Kgotla system is examined and affirmed as an example of a successful African governance system. The establishment of Ubuntu Institutes is primed as the fundamental step in reviving African indigenous political systems to realise a new dawn of development.“

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Imperialism, Instability and Coups in the Sahel Region

By Sitati Wasilwa

About ten African countries have experienced successful or attempted military coups in the last two or so years. Guinea, Sudan, Chad, Mali, Burkina Faso and Guinea Bissau have a troubled history of coups. Conditions that historically precipitated coups in these countries barely faded before the recent takeovers. Instead, they were firmed up by decades of poor governance and imperialism. These countries are victims of harsh, brutal and extractive autocratic regimes and foreign states.

Burkina Faso’s former president Blaise Compaore, for instance, ascended to power with the help of the French government. France’s foreign policy in Africa, especially West Africa, though driven by realism, is historically imperialist – notorious for propping regime change and endemic economic dependence.

While the aforementioned countries are historically predisposed to coups, context is key in understanding the recent wave of political instability in the Sahel region.

Superficially, one could be tempted to consider the coups in Mali and Burkina Faso as structurally different from the rest – they were fanned by rising insecurity. For Guinea, Sudan and Chad, it was the typical military hegemony fighting back. But these are conventional takes, I suppose. Unconventionally though, a few may agree, the primary cause of coups in Mali and Burkina Faso is imperialism.

Collapse of the Libyan State

A lot has been said and written by Muammar Gaddafi’s apologists and denigrators in almost equal measure. The once christened ‘Mad Dog of the Middle East’ was right after all on the primary objectives of the power war by the United States of America (USA) and North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) allied states – “…to control Libyan oil and to control Libyan land, to colonise Libya once again”.

The post-Gaddafi Libyan state is a wretched territory, unfit for human subsistence. Libya is another Iraq and Afghanistan in the making. Attaining stability in Africa’s once considered welfare state is presently nightmarish. How quickly it would turn out to be a graveyard of empires is a function of time!

Gaddafi’s warning to former British prime minister Tony Blair now sounds prophetic! The slain Libyan revolutionary warned Blair that his ouster would pave the way for Al Qaeda not only to call the shots in Libya, but to invade Europe.

It’s a shame that African scholars and intellectuals have barely engaged in discourses about Gaddafi. Methinks that he was a widely misunderstood personality largely because of one-sided Western narratives. Reliving Gaddafi’s thoughts and ideas is a tale for another day.

Gaddafi’s ouster led to the proliferation of arms across Sahelian states. Mercenaries were hired from Chad, Mali, Sudan and a host of other Sahelian countries to fight in the Libyan civil wars. The occasional retreats of the mercenaries, and of course their need for economic, and partly political survival, would lead to trade in arms – temporary or otherwise.

What’s more, terrorist groups whose fighters played a role in toppling Gaddafi found the need to spread their radical ideologies in the Sahel. The two factors led to a surge in attacks by terrorist groups and other armed groups in the region. This qualifies my thinking on imperialism as the structural cause of some of the recent coups, especially in Mali and Burkina Faso.

Lame Duck Thinking?

Naysayers may sneer at my submission on the fall of Gaddafi and the disintegration of the Libyan state as the systemic causes of the mutinies, especially in Mali and Burkina Faso. They may argue that some countries neighbouring Libya such as Egypt, Algeria and Mauritania have successfully guarded themselves against attacks by terrorists and other armed groups. That’s true, but context is important.

Governance institutions in these latter countries, though led by authoritarian regimes over time, are way superior to the dilettantish, sub-par, outright malfunctional institutions in Mali, Burkina Faso, Guinea and Chad. Could be a good example of benevolent and malevolent autocrats.

Where do we go from here in view of imperialism, instability and the recent coups?

Geopolitical Implications

Rising insecurity and the institutionalisation of military regimes in some of the Sahelian states have led to a spurt in anti-French sentiments. Anti-French protests have been held in Mali, Burkina Faso, Niger and Guinea. France deployed its troops in Mali in 2013, but their presence can be considered a failure.

The commencement of Operation Barkhane in the larger Sahel region under the command of French troops barely addressed the immediate security needs of the region’s populace. The eventual withdrawal of French forces from Mali could as well lead to their ultimate exodus from the Sahel region. The USA’s failed mission and cowardly pullout from Afghanistan could tweak France’s military policy in West Africa. The redeployment of French forces from Mali to Niger could trigger anti-French sentiments in the latter. This would bid a long, somehow strange goodbye to France’s direct military engagement in the Sahel.

Russian influence is poised to grow in the Sahel, especially with the rise of anti-French sentiments. More deployment of Russian mercenaries and security forces could likely occur with the military-led governments seeking external help in containing the insecurity situation. Bear in mind that protesters in pro-coup and anti-French rallies in Guinea, Mali and Burkina Faso have ritualistically waved Russian flags. The imminent rise of Russia as a major global power player could be well reflected by its increased involvement in some of the troubled Sahelian states.

The African Union (AU) could come out as a discredited institution following the growing insecurity and coups. What’s its capacity? How is it competently structured? Is it a dog that barks, but seldomly bites? It may be a good-for-nothing institution after all.

And, most importantly, the recent spate of coups could trigger attempted or successful ousters in other African countries. Countries at risk include Benin, Niger, the Central African Republic and Togo given their troubled histories and a somewhat upward trajectory of terrorist attacks.

Sitati Wasilwa is a political economist and geopolitical analyst. Twitter: @SitatiWasilwa LinkedIn: Sitati Wasilwa

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What Next After Discontinuation of the Doing Business Report?

The decision by the World Bank to halt the publication of the Doing Business Report has elicited mixed reactions, though most of the reactions seem to be celebratory – was it disliked that much?

Yours truly is somehow pinned at a crossroad contemplating whether to sympathise with the World Bank or attempt to join the militancy bandwagon to further demonise the Doing Business Report, and extensively, the Bank itself. If a gun was to be pointed at my head, or if kidnappers were to come calling, with the two choices offered as ransom, I’d gladly opt for the militant feat; hammer and tongs on the Bank and its doomed Report.

I am tempted to dig out the history of the Doing Business Report, but the information is all over the internet for you to scour. At the outset, however, a better understanding of the ill-fated Report can only be obtained by acknowledging the ideological standing of the World Bank; something along the lines of free-market economics.

In 2020, I ranted on Facebook about the careless mannerisms of politicians, journalists, researchers, and other people religiously – and blindly for that matter – embracing the Doing Business Report. The comments on the post reflected the varied opinions and beliefs on the validity of the report.

On one hand, some conveyed their mistrust about the Report based on its detachment from the reality on the ground – more on this is covered later in the article. On the other hand, some were unbowed and unshaken, insisting that the Report is extremely valid, among other foggy reasons, the long hours of work spent searching and compiling data. You can tell that I was miffed by the latter group, partly because of ideological reasons and of course common sense.  

Observing high standards of integrity in research and stitching data is akin to walking on landmines. Proverbially, and so, practically, stories sell, but data tells. Most people, organisations and governments use data to drive their agenda and lie!

Lorenzo Fioramonti’s book, Gross Domestic Problem, sheds light on how Gross Domestic Product (GDP) has been historically and fashionably used by governments and other mainstream policy institutions to drive political and economic narratives with little consideration of the prevailing realities.

As such, data is subject to manipulation. The renowned British economist Robert Coase famously remarked that, “If you torture the data long enough, it will confess to anything.” To surmise, the suspension of the Doing Business Report indicates an exercise shrouded in data manipulation.

The inappropriate alteration of data – a decent description for data manipulation – from Azerbaijan, China, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) for the 2018 and 2020 reports was cited as the primary reason for pausing the publication of the Report in 2021. The Report raised the stakes of scorecard diplomacy.

Never mind that in 2018, an external audit indicated that there was no evidence regarding the manipulation of the Ease of Doing Business indicators for Chile.

But don’t get me wrong; it is not just the manipulation of data that is the primary problem of the Report, subjective data collection processes are also a systemic challenge.

The disputed ‘father of economics’ Adam Smith – yes, disputed because the great Ibn Khaldun made riveting economic contributions three centuries before Smith’s supposed landmark ideas – documents in The Wealth of Nations about the society’s benefit from the pursuit of self-interest of the butcher, the brewer and the baker: “It is not from the benevolence of the butcher, the brewer or the baker that we expect our dinner, but from their regard to their own interest.”

The World Bank obstinately dons the robes of the butcher, the apron of the baker, and the slacks of the brewer in pursuing its self-interest – advancing free-market economic policies. A quick one: how the butcher swings his axe, or how the baker mixes his dough, or how the brewer distils the alcohol is solely informed by their interests. They can as well manipulate processes and systems to achieve their goals. In essence, there is no benevolence in the market, and so, the World Bank is a profit-making business, and not after mounting charity parades. This is a low-hanging incentive for the Bank’s staff to seek solace in monkey business exercises.

When Paul Romer poked holes on the credibility of the Report in 2018, I embarked on an unholy mission to further understand the underhand dealings by the Bank to admonish some countries while praising others.

I never doubted Romer’s retracted comments on the aim of the Report to lower Chile’s rank on the account of having a socialist government given the Bank’s tainted policy history.

Romer’s Damascus Moment triggered other reactions from organisations and individuals alike. A blog post published by Oxfam in January 2018 highlights some weaknesses of the Report. First, the ideological bias of the Report tramples on any form of regulation dealing a heavy blow on attempts by governments to advance social benefits to the most vulnerable individuals. Second, the “total tax and contribution rate” indicator that perfectly enhances the conventional economic wisdom that low taxes are effective incentives for business prosperity, more so, in attracting foreign investment. Typical trickle-down economics! Tom Bergin busts this myth (cutting taxes to enhance investment and economic growth) in his book Free Lunch Thinking.

In 2013, the Independent Panel Review of the Doing Business Report made several recommendations including reforming the Report’s methodology, increasing its level of transparency, removing aggregate rankings (the Ease of Doing Business Index), and permanent deletion of the labour market flexibility and tax rate indicators.

An open letter (dated March 11th, 2021) to the Bank’s Executive Directors undersigned by 361 civil society organisations, social movements, trade unions, academics and independent experts from 80 countries highlights reasons for ceasing the publication of the report as premised on “methodology, data selection and scope, questionable robustness of the aggregate rankings, and its anti-regulation bias.”

Joseph Stiglitz, a former chief economist at the Bank, further punctures the Report noting that: “…I thought it was a terrible product. Countries received good ratings for low corporate taxes and weak labor regulations. The numbers were always squishy, with small changes in the data having potentially large effects on the rankings. Countries were inevitably upset when seemingly arbitrary decisions caused them to slide in the rankings.”

I came across an article authored by Gerard McCormack and published in the European Business Organization Law Review journal and admired his thoroughness in analysing the Doing Business Report. Consider one of his statements: “The DB project has a universalist, quasi-imperialist vision in that it puts legal rules and legal systems at the fulcrum of the development equation but a variety of non-legal factors clearly impact on a country’s economic performance.” Yes, the imperialist dream marches on – a sort of one-size-fits-all approach to economic growth and development.

McCormack further notes that “the DB project should be stripped of its preoccupation with rankings—the process of simplifying complex matters of policy execution and design into a simple, single ranking.”

But his remarks on the misleading broad-brush approach of the Report rang the loudest in my ears: “Context and cultural sensitivity are all important in the ‘real’ world and reducing all sorts of complicated matters to a single ranking hardly seems compatible with bringing about genuine improvements in the legal architecture for doing business.”

Way Forward?

The World Bank seems to have abandoned its attempt to swim through a river infested with hungry and bloodthirsty crocodiles. Let’s assume the Bank is now patched on an isolated island in the waters, will it resolve to change course, or just pause and embark on its mission with gusto?

The press statement issued by the Bank communicating the discontinuation of the Report hints at the development of “a new approach to assessing the business and investment climate.” I guess that the Bank may decide to rename the Doing Business Report and panel beat a few aspects here and there in line with the recommendations of the 2013 Independent Panel Review of the Doing Business Report.

What’s more, the Bank may consider scaling up the transparency processes of the Report’s successor. As noted by Ian Richards, UNCTAD’s Global Enterprise Index offers a benchmark for the World Bank to learn from with regard to transparency, and more specifically, inviting input from the public instead of relying on specialists and experts holed in some ivory towers.

Governments and other policy institutions should cease relying on the Doing Business Report to guide policy formulation because its methodological weaknesses and benchmarks advance inequality and derail broad-based socio-economic growth and development. Social indices are just as important as economic indices in assessing growth and development.

Is it difficult to move on from past or toxic romances? The failure of the Doing Business Report indicates that, after all, moving on from ex-sweethearts or toxic lovers is something the World Bank is not ready to embrace. The Bank’s romanticisation of raw free-market economics ignores the failure of its past and present romantic advances such as the Structural Adjustment Policies (SAPs). Context should always dictate policy formulation and implementation. This is a vital lesson noted by Ha-Joon Chang in his two books Bad Samaritans and Kicking Away the Ladder.

The goose is cooked. Time will tell how delicious or unpalatable the meal is.

Sitati Wasilwa is a political economist, and a researcher, writer and consultant on geopolitics, public policy and governance affairs. He is a youth leader at Kenya YMCA, a member of the Local Solutions Youth Panel at the Global Youth Mobilization and a contributing writer for The African Executive Magazine. He writes in his personal capacity. Twitter: @SitatiWasilwa LinkedIn: Sitati Wasilwa Blog: The Kavirondo Facebook: Sitati Wasilwa

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