Category: Public Policy

Raila Odinga: A Remembrance

My earliest memories of the enigmatic Raila Odinga were in the late 1990s, when I was in my formative schooling years. This was shortly after the 1997 election, which Daniel Moi and the Kenya African National Union (KANU) party allegedly won.

Moi rigged votes in his favour, and 1997 was an opportunity for him to demonstrate his mastery of the cutbacks on electoral systems. These nascent memories are courtesy of my father, who religiously purchased copies of the three major newspapers then – the Daily Nation, the Standard, and the People’s Daily.

Around that time, my curiosity was also elevated by access to copies of contemporary political publications, such as the Society Magazine and the Weekly Review. My dad had copies of these publications, some dating to the early 1990s when multiparty politics was reintroduced. I cannot clearly recall some key political events that followed shortly after the elections. This includes the 1998 cooperation between KANU and the National Development Party (NDP), then led by Raila Odinga.

By 2001, I had a keen interest in political events. I recollect the June 2001 appointment of Raila Odinga and other NDP MPs to the Cabinet by Moi. The newspapers and radio stations extensively broadcast Raila’s appointment as energy minister. Others who joined the Cabinet were Adhu Awiti (planning minister), Orwa Ojode (education assistant minister), and Peter Odoyo (foreign affairs assistant minister).

Months later, in March 2002, one of the most consequential political events occurred: the KANU-NDP merger. I was in boarding school at that time, but managed to get access to newspapers. A month or so later, when schools closed for the April holiday, I went through newspapers page by page at home to keep up with the merger. Luckily, the media was still covering the significance of the event. It was unclear at that time if Moi would leave the presidency or extend his term despite his insistence on retiring by sticking to the two-term presidential term limit. A formidable, broad-based opposition movement was uncertain then.

Moi’s endorsement of Uhuru Kenyatta seven months later, on October 14, 2002, shifted the momentum and paved the way for the eventual formation of a united opposition coalition against Moi and KANU. Since then, Raila remained a highly influential political player, a colossus of sorts, until his death.

Following the death of the legendary Franco Luambo Makiadi on October 12, 1989, Sam Mangwana described him as “a man who comes once in 100 years.” Mangwana inherently referred to Franco’s combination of musical brilliance, leadership, innovation, and lyrical power that was so rare in a career that spanned four decades. Franco also commanded a religious following, and his music is immortal.

Parallels can be drawn between Raila Odinga and Luambo Makiadi. First, their souls departed in October. Three days before Odinga’s death, I had passionately celebrated Luambo’s 36th death anniversary. Probably great men, revolutionaries, die in October. Thomas Sankara and Samora Machel died on October 15, 1987, and October 19, 1986, respectively. Second, the two lives of these legends offer lessons in longevity. They mastered the art of reinventing themselves amid fierce competition and changing times.

Third, they commanded a cult-like following in life and in death. There are charismatic people all over, but very few are uniquely charming. Fourth, Luambo and Odinga were pragmatists and built their admirable careers by building alliances. They worked with their rivals, a typically Machiavellian power strategy.

Raila Odinga had power arrangements with Daniel Moi, Mwai Kibaki, Uhuru Kenyatta, and William Ruto. To many, these were personal and opportunistic. But they embodied the pragmatic sense of acquiring power. This is not an endorsement of the formation of the broad-based government. The Grand Master of Congolese rhumba and African music, Luambo Makiadi, forged alliances with one of his biggest rivals, Tabu Ley Rochereau. This union of legends produced one of the best music compositions.

My respect for Mwai Kibaki waned following the events of the controversial 2007 elections. While I was a high school student, I was politically conscious. I wondered why Kibaki would mastermind vote rigging when Odinga had won. It was confusing. A day or two before Chief Justice Evan Gicheru swore in Kibaki, I went to bed ecstatic, fantasizing about a Raila Odinga presidency.

The headline of the Saturday Standard the following day affirmed my conviction of Raila Odinga winning the presidential election. My father had sent me to purchase a copy of the dailies to keep track of the election developments. Odinga had polled 3.34 million votes against Kibaki’s 2.45 million. Later that evening, a tide swept, and votes apparently streamed in from the so-called Kibaki strongholds, including the infamous Tharaka Nithi.

Tensions were visibly high at the national tallying centre at the KICC. Odinga looked deeply frustrated with his lieutenants, James Orengo, William Ruto, et al., demanding fairness from the then chairperson of the Electoral Commission of Kenya, Samuel Kivuitu. Anyway, an Odinga presidency never materialised. I could not fathom why Odinga would let it go, having run one of the most remarkable and consequential political campaigns in Kenya’s political history.

In his autobiography, The Flame of Freedom, and multiple interviews, Odinga maintains that he chose to form the grand coalition government in 2008 for the sake of national unity. This was despite objections by hardliners in the ODM negotiating team at the Serena Hotel who wanted nothing less than Kibaki conceding or the formation of a transitional government leading to elections in a few months.

Odinga reiterated the need for national unity following his political reconciliation with Uhuru Kenyatta in March 2018 and William Ruto in 2024. I am convinced the 2008 Odinga was fundamentally different from the one in 2018 and 2024, and perhaps the 1998 one.

The 2008 Odinga was much more concerned about national unity, given the widespread post-election violence. But the Odinga of 1998, 2018, and 2024 was an opportunistic one who aimed at securing his political and economic interests. The 1998 KANU-NDP cooperation was a strategic maneuver by Odinga to position himself as a potential successor to Daniel Moi in 2002. Odinga played this card, having in mind a possible divided opposition and the fact that no high-ranking KANU leaders had experience in running in presidential elections.

It would be out of order to claim he pushed for his economic interests to secure the purchase of the Kisumu molasses factory in light of the political cooperation with KANU. A significant number of people claim that the land where the factory was located was illegally acquired by Spectre International, the Odinga family business. These allegations are traced to the 2003 Ndung’u Land Commission Report. According to the report, “direct allocation of alienated government land to the company (Spectre International) by the commissioner of lands was illegal.”

A few interesting facts! The Ndung’u Commission was established following a report by a task force Odinga formed in 2003, when he was the minister for roads, public works, and housing. The aim was to assess the status of government property and housing amid deeply entrenched corruption. Second, the government acquired the molasses factory land in 1982, but payments for the land were not made in full. Bidding for the factory gained momentum in the mid-1990s.

Foul play cannot be ruled out in the findings of the Ndung’u Report on Spectre’s illegal acquisition of the land. Lots of political witch-hunting was at play by mid-2003, a few months after the formation of the NARC administration. Two camps had emerged over the failure to implement the infamous power-sharing Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) signed by the Kibaki-led National Alliance of Kenya (NAK) and the Raila-led Liberal Democratic Party (LDP). These were the principal units that formed NARC.

Were it not for a court order sought by Spectre International in January 2006, perhaps the company, Odinga, and others would have been prosecuted. Kibaki’s acolytes were not leaving anything to chance, especially after the embarrassing defeat in the August 2005 constitutional referendum. It was evident by then that Odinga would be a force to reckon with in the 2007 elections.

Political and economic interests motivated the extra-constitutional power arrangements of 2018 and 2024. The 2018 one could have targeted cutting off William Ruto from Kenyatta and weakening him in the run-up to the 2017 election. It never worked with Ruto playing victim. The 2024 arrangement occurred when Ruto was extremely desperate following a wave of youth-led protests. The fact that this power deal was followed by the impeachment of then Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua raises suspicions.

It is difficult to figure out the specific political goal Odinga was pursuing. Was he strategically positioning ODM to be a principal coalition partner with UDA in 2027? Or was he just playing the good guy card to cement his status as a statesman? On both occasions, the commercial interests of the Odinga family were on the table.

I embraced Odinga’s ideologies in the lead-up to the 2007 election, given the manner in which he packaged his campaign messaging. He built his manifesto on infrastructure as the key to transforming Kenya’s socioeconomic fortunes. Little credit is given to Raila Odinga for being the brainchild of some notable physical infrastructure projects. The Thika Superhighway, the LAPSETT corridor project, and multiple by-passes in Nairobi were conceptualised by Odinga. To me, he stands out as the most progressive roads minister in Kenya’s history.

At the onset of the NARC administration, Odinga, with gusto, oversaw the demolition of structures built on road reserves. He attempted to inject some sanity as Kenya was transitioning from an irredeemably corrupt Moi administration. The construction of the Raila Odinga Way, previously known as Mbagathi Way, highlights his legacy and embodies his high value for posterity. He was on record many times, noting that most of his decisions are based on posterity.

The Raila Odinga Way was initiated during his time as roads minister, and it was constructed from 2005 to 2007. It was a pilot project to assess the viability of concrete road technology in the country. The road is still in shape almost two decades later.

One has to admire Odinga for his resilience, willpower, and intellect. Few can survive eight years of detention, considering the physical and psychological torture victims are subjected to. It is even more agonizing to imagine Odinga’s mum and brother died and got buried while he was in detention. Odinga endured the loss of his four siblings and eldest son but chose to fight for a cause larger than his life. He lost the presidential election multiple times but stayed on course.

Odinga’s resilience resonates with Viktor Frankl’s thoughts in his book, Man’s Search for Meaning. This excerpt from the book’s preface highlights Frankl’s view on finding purpose in life even during moments of suffering:

“…The great task for any person is to find meaning in his or her life: in work (doing something significant), in love (caring for another person), and in courage in difficult times…Suffering in and of itself is meaningless; we give our suffering meaning by the way in which we respond to it…”

His autobiography, The Flame of Freedom, remains one of my favourite memoirs, especially in the Kenyan context. It is relatively rich in history. Most Kenyan autobiographies are quite shallow and read more like eulogies than texts meant to inspire thinking, belief, and action.

Raila also authored Quest for Nationhood – Roadmap to Our Future. As revealed by one of his sisters on the burial day, he was working on another book on Pan-Africanism. He had also instructed Anyang’ Nyong’o to work on a paper on nationhood and tribalism just before his demise.

I highly value people who have been in the limelight to pen down the intrigues of their lives, motivations, purpose, and achievements. In one of my blog posts, I stated the need for such figures to give us more books, but meaningful ones. I have read memoirs that left me cursing the authors for presenting underwhelming information despite having been in the corridors of power.

His father’s, Not Yet Uhuru, is also a remarkable autobiography. Raila Odinga stands out among the few Kenyan politicians who found meaning in writing books, again for posterity purposes. Apart from Anyang’ Nyong’o, it is difficult to easily identify politicians who are intellectually grounded. And I do not imply academic qualifications…We glorify the practice of acquiring academic certificates instead of valuing intellectualism. There is a high deficit of thinkers in Kenya.

It is a generational tragedy that politicians annoyingly talk of Kenya as the next Singapore, yet their woeful intellects tell of a limited understanding of the formidable thinker Lee Kuan Yew was. I am hopeless for a better Kenya.

Odinga was overall well-informed, not just about history, but about many issues. His parliamentary contributions and Cabinet briefings demonstrated a man who highly valued knowledge.

The most consequential deaths generally lead to destructive institutional episodes, largely due to internal contradictions. The ODM party will wane, and the political careers of Odinga’s hangers-on will die with his demise. Despite his intellect and strong belief in institutions, Odinga did not build ODM for posterity. He failed to overcome the Kenyan political party culture, where parties are built around personalities and not effective institutional elements.

I cannot blame him for this. This is a culture primarily associated with the political parties that emerged with the reintroduction of multiparty politics. However, this goes further back to the colonial era. Perhaps KANU, after the death of Jomo Kenyatta, escaped this. His successor, Moi, was deeply entrenched in the system, and an inherent succession plan was already in place before his death.

FORD-Kenya weakened significantly with Oginga Odinga’s death in 1994. Tragedy struck the party the second time within a decade in August 2003 with the death of Vice President Kijana Wamalwa. The party sank deeper. Currently, its leaders are proud to have it as the most popular party among the Bukusu people in Bungoma and Trans-Nzoia counties.

KANU lost its allure with Daniel Moi’s exit from the presidency. Moi personalized KANU after Jomo’s death. One of the primary causes was the 1982 coup attempt that prompted him to consolidate power and resulted in the legal ban of other parties.

Multiple factions within ODM will eventually split and weaken it. Part of the leadership led by the Secretary General, Edwin Sifuna, opposes the broad-based government and vouches for the party to field a presidential candidate in 2027. Others strongly support the broad-based government and vow to support Ruto’s reelection.

Appointing Raila’s brother, Oburu Oginga, as the acting party leader may have been motivated by paranoia and interests. Large political parties in Kenya are extensively family enterprises. This, plus other factors, will hasten the party’s weakening.

ODM has been on a gradual downward trajectory in the past decade. This is supported by its performance in the 2013, 2017, and 2022 elections, apart from presidential polls. Its agreement with UDA/KKA to form the broad-based government impacted it significantly. Weeks ago, its SG Sifuna raised concerns about the fading desire by aspirants to run for elections on ODM.

Oburu lacks the national appeal that Raila enjoyed. I am careful not to refer to Oburu as weak – and I do not mean physically – but he does not inspire confidence. There are leaders whose supporters can go to war for. At least not Oburu.

Raila’s eldest brother is safeguarding the interests of ODM ‘conservatives.’ Linked to this are Ruto’s interests and machinations to win ODM’s support for his unassured reelection. Ruto might have influenced the selection of Oburu as the acting party leader. Ruto’s political career could be a victim of Raila’s death. A fractured ODM and a united opposition spell doom for him.

I have keenly listened to Oburu’s speeches after assuming the party leader’s role of ODM. Fundamentally, it’s double-speak. His speeches carry a reconciliatory tone. But the power arrangement between ODM and UDA/KKA is intact. Oburu was a staunch supporter of this extra-constitutional arrangement when Raila was alive. (I will dedicate the next few weeks to digging deeper and understanding Oburu’s worldview and leadership. But the November 2nd, 2025, Sunday Nation’s Weekly Review was a good starting point. His autobiography is on my bucket list).

In September 2024, Raila Odinga, with the NEC’s endorsement, settled on Anyang’ Nyong’o as the party’s acting leader. This was at the onset of Odinga’s campaigns for the chairperson’s position of the African Union Commission (AUC).

Nyong’o is a near ideological twin to Raila and would make a better party leader than Oburu ideologically. But the two gentlemen are aging. They may resonate with the generational shift in Kenyan politics. Even so, Oburu should facilitate a transition to relatively youthful leadership for posterity.

For ODM to remain relevant and possibly become vibrant, it must embrace youthful leadership. It should brand itself as the political party of the present and the future. The present and the future of Kenya oscillate on political and economic solutions that address the plight of the youth.

The three ODM deputy party leaders are not visionaries. The immediate former two deputy party leaders who were appointed as Cabinet Secretaries in the broad-based government are not good enough to lead ODM. Ideally, an ODM of the future should be built around Sifuna’s talents. He stands out as a visionary and the most qualified to lead the party.

I will forever miss Raila Odinga. His legacy for pro-democratic reforms is solid. His intellect is admirable. His decision-making for posterity is cherished. It is unbelievable that he died. Looks like a dream!

May his soul rest in eternal peace!

The writer, Sitati Wasilwa, is a political risk analyst and strategist. His writings are independent of his institutional affiliations.

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Calls for National Dialogue Opportunistic and Baseless

Former Prime Minister Raila Odinga often struggles to read the room. On July 7, 2025, his lethargic speech, commemorating the 35th anniversary of Saba Saba Day, affirms this. Two or three aspects of the speech intrigued me.

First, Odinga’s call for a national dialogue, which he referred to as an inclusive intergenerational national conclave. Second, a national referendum to vote on the outcomes of the dialogue. Third, a demand for police reforms and an end to police brutality.

Odinga is deluded and demonstrates his religious obsession through such dialogues, which he has historically capitalized on to gain government power.

The Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) that led to the formation of the incompetent broad-based government stipulates a 10-point agenda to improve Kenya’s governance. This agenda is an outcome of a dialogue that involved long-time politicians. It was an outcome of President William Ruto’s political desperation and Odinga’s opportunistic nature in the aftermath of the June 25, 2024, mass protests.

Kenya would not be on a race to the bottomless pit had the Ruto administration implemented its promises after the 2022 elections and 2024 protests. Ruto attempted to dialogue with the people, a rare show of humility from him. But to him, these were brilliant moments to hoodwink the public. After all, his promises to address high taxation, an odious public debt, cut wastage of public resources, and completely reshuffle the presidential appointees, among others, have never been implemented. Would you want to dialogue with people who feel shortchanged and lied to?

Odinga should instead lead his party, ODM, to resign from the mongrel broad-based government. It is easier for him to also consider calling Ruto and insisting on the implementation of the 10-point agenda.

The former prime minister has perfected Law 25 of the 48 Laws of Power by recreating himself each time his relevance appears to hit a dead end. While he has mastered the Machiavellian script of pursuing power, I am afraid his moves on the national political chessboard may not be effective this time.

Anything great or mighty, including powerful personalities and institutions that are sometimes perceived as immortal, has its end. Greatness is a factor of time, and time changes, and people move on.  History is replete with such examples.

Most of these mighty entities usually collapse because of internal contradictions, greed, arrogance, overestimation of their outdated strategies/tactics, and not heeding the evolving demands of time. The architects of the broad-based government are facing a generation of young Kenyans who are relatively well-exposed, educated, and courageous. They are also facing a public that is delusional and hopeless of vague promises.

National dialogues have barely benefited the people in Kenya, given the multiple times we’ve had them. Interestingly enough, the first point of the 10-point agenda is the full implementation of the NADCO report. NADCO is an abbreviation for National Dialogue Committee, a team that comprised members of the ruling coalition and the opposition to address political and economic governance.

NADCO came a few years after another amorphous national dialogue initiative: the Building Bridges Initiative (BBI). While the courts quashed the BBI-driven attempts for a referendum, Odinga largely achieved his aim of enjoying political power without responsibility.

From a political strategy view, the BBI was Uhuru Kenyatta’s stroke to exercise his powers by limiting sabotage by his then-deputy, Ruto. But it was a miscalculation by Odinga. Ruto successfully linked Odinga with the failures of an administration he was the second in command. And Odinga’s lazy and disorganised presidential election campaigns did not remedy the situation.

Our Constitution is an outcome of a political dialogue held after Mwai Kibaki rigged the votes in the 2007 elections. This is perhaps one of the diligent results from numerous dialogues in the last six decades. But if we consider the bigger picture, the people, especially victims of the post-election violence, rarely benefited from the dialogue.

The political class deliberately objected to the implementation of the report by the Truth, Justice, and Reconciliation Commission (TJRC). With hindsight, it was far-fetched to entrust a compromised and non-progressive political class to implement the TJRC’s recommendations.

The TJRC submitted its report to Uhuru Kenyatta in May 2013. Uhuru and Ruto were then facing charges of crimes against humanity at the International Criminal Court. Furthermore, these are politicians whose political and biological roots are entangled in historical injustices committed by the Jomo Kenyatta, Moi, and Kibaki regimes. This indicates why it is hard to expect tangible progress from establishment politicians.

A good example of another dialogue is the Ndung’u Land Commission in 2003. Unfortunately, but not shockingly, its report has never been implemented. Again, expect nothing from a political class that is a purveyor of corruption.

National dialogues are meaningless. These are resource-wasting ventures by the establishment. Why should we have a national dialogue when we have an administration that is tone-deaf, arrogant, and casts itself as an enemy of the people? Dialogue with an administration obsessed with killing, maiming, and abducting people without shame? Dialogue with an administration that is incompetent and good at nothing?

Constitutionalism and meritocracy are the primary pillars to transform Kenya. If the current and future administrations stick to the Constitution, corruption, unwarranted high public debt, high taxation, unaffordable education, poor housing, and high-cost healthcare will be eradicated. Our Constitution is the answer to all our governance challenges and not caricatured dialogues.

The writer, Sitati Wasilwa, speaks and writes on political and economic governance. Contact: sitatiwasilwa.sw@gmail.com.

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June 25: Reflections on an Unfinished People’s Revolution

June 25, 2024, shaped Kenya’s present and future. I refer to it as Kenya’s great political reset. The aftermath of the events of this date portrays a political class that is not ready for change. The top brass of the Kenya Kwanza administration remains defiantly arrogant, corrupt, dismissive, but still cannot implement measures to improve the lives of Kenyans.

This bunch of gluttonous politicians and wheeler-dealers fails to recognise its failures and acknowledge the need for a holistic, generational change. We certainly need to do better as a country, 62 years after independence.

But independence has all along been a charade. Apart from powerful neocolonial forces, the Kenyan political establishment cherishes colonial attitudes and institutions. Our political class is worse than the British colonialists. Sometimes I think of how the world could have been a terrible place had Kenyans colonised several territories. I mean, the Kenyan political establishment lacks the passion to put in place systems that work.

I do not mean to excuse European colonialism. It was unjustified. Since it happened, comparisons and contrasts can be drawn. In 2023, I read a controversial opinion article titled “What is Uganda’s Problem?” in the Daily Monitor newspaper. The writer, Timothy Kalyegira, argues that colonialists established functional institutions and had a good work ethic. He chides post-colonial governments in Uganda, Kenya, and Tanzania for not matching the colonialists’ work ethic and institutions.

Fundamentally, I agree with Kalyegira’s thoughts in the article. There is no justification for the existence of broken systems that deprive citizens high quality public goods and services.

One could argue that the post-colonial politicians in the region inherited extractive political and economic institutions. Sounds fine. But they loudly pontificate development blueprints and slogans, intentionally bypassing the urgency for institutional reforms.

The William Ruto administration, at some point, was obsessed with transforming Kenya into the Singapore of Africa. Never mind that this hallucinatory obsession is aimed at justifying the warped housing levy and affordable housing policy.

Economic history indicates that Kenya and Singapore were almost at par on several economic growth and development indicators in the 1960s and 1970s. For instance, Kenya’s GDP was USD 926.6 million, while Singapore’s was USD 917.2 million in 1963. Presently, Kenya and Singapore are worlds apart.

Where did we lose the plot? In some of my articles, I have referenced Professor Anyang’ Nyong’o’s book, “A Leap Into the Future,” detailing answers to this question. Nyong’o highlights an encounter with Singapore’s founding father, Lee Kuan Yew, in the 1990s. Kuan Yew referred to the assassination of Tom Mboya as having dragged Kenya backward when Singapore chose to go forward.

He may have symbolically brought up Mboya’s assassination. The bigger picture is the dismissal of the intentional nation-building and institutional development through meritocracy. Kenya’s political establishment passionately hates meritocracy.

While Kuan Yew’s Singapore identified Meritocracy, Pragmatism, and Honesty (MPH) as the pathway for socioeconomic development, Kenya’s political class religiously embraced corruption, lack of merit, and despised work ethic. Kenya appears to be worsening.

The Ethics and Anti-Corruption Commission (EACC) remains a moribund institution. Its notable achievements are name changes. The amendment of the Prevention of Corruption Act in 1997 paved the way for the establishment of the Kenya Anti-Corruption Authority. This was an outcome of key reforms undertaken by the Daniel Moi administration to restore foreign aid. The Kenya Anti-Corruption Commission was established in 2003, and later the EACC in 2011.

No substantial prosecutions of high-profile politicians and wheeler-dealers have occurred in the last 30 years. Corruption is rampant under the current administration, and this was one of the key issues raised by Kenyans in 2024 during the demonstrations. Nothing has changed, no lessons learnt.

The Kenya Kwanza regime believes you can overtax a country to prosperity. We have the habit of blaming the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) for imposing policies that lead to inequality. Historically, there is solid evidence linking the neoliberal Washington Consensus policies to unequal development in Africa.

But our governments ought to be blamed more. Kenya lacks leaders, visionaries, and thinkers at the centre of power. Meaningful economic development cannot be achieved without dedicated intellectualism in the Executive and Legislature.

Kenya is a victim of the Structural Adjustment Policies (SAPs) championed by the Bretton Woods institutions. The victimhood dates back to the 1990s. The education and health sectors were severely affected by SAPs. We find ourselves in similar situations where massive spending cuts threaten access to affordable education and healthcare. Any country with visionary leaders would not be experiencing this.

The future of Kenya is gloomy. We are back in the times when education, especially higher education, was a privilege of those who could afford to pay fees. Fundraisers for hospital bills have increased, while the regime insists that the Social Health Insurance Fund (SHIF) is working efficiently. We must not forget KES 104 billion was spent on the transition from the National Hospital Insurance Fund (NHIF) to SHIF.

Overtaxation cannot lead to socioeconomic prosperity. Let’s forget about socioeconomic prosperity for now; you cannot overtax economic agents strained by a high cost of living and unemployment. The June 25, 2024, protests were a platform for the citizens to remind the incompetent Kenya Kwanza regime about the folliness of overtaxation.

We are constantly reminded by the establishment that we must pay taxes to achieve economic independence. They also tell us that we are not overtaxed, unlike other countries. This dangerous thinking always draws comparisons between Kenya and developed economies and not other peer countries. Kenyans may not have a problem with high taxes, provided that these efforts are reciprocated with the provision of affordable and high quality public goods and services.

Vision 2030, like many other wonderfully drafted socioeconomic Sessional Papers, will never be attained in totality. This blueprint envisioned the manufacturing sector as a key driver for transforming Kenya into a globally competitive, middle-income economy. It targeted the manufacturing sector to contribute 20% to the economy’s GDP and create one million jobs yearly. This remains a pipe dream.

Policymakers have shown little concern that high taxes and an unpredictable tax regime are strangling the manufacturing sector. Yet, they go around the country on the rooftops of top-of-the-range cars like snake oil merchants, showing little concern for the stagnated growth of the sector.

Let’s get it right; you cannot cheat yourself into robust socioeconomic development. Failing to formulate relevant policies to spur the manufacturing sector means we will barely create meaningful and sustainable jobs in Kenya. This also applies to other African countries.

Nearly all developed and fast-developing economies established robust manufacturing sectors. Ours has hardly contributed more than 10% to the GDP in the last 10 years. The frustrations of Kenyans, particularly the youth, arise from unemployment and underemployment. Yet, the regime’s honchos overburden these vulnerable humans with taxes without creating sustainable jobs.

It is laughable that the Ruto administration talks big about exporting labour as a job creation mechanism. This is hogwash. In addition, we have seen this regime countless times purporting to facilitate the creation of jobs through the digital economy. Not sure why this barely comes up nowadays.

This rogue regime does not understand the dignity of decent jobs. It has no comprehension of the dangers of idle, educated youth. Again, you cannot cheat your way into development. There are no miracles and shortcuts to attaining meaningful socioeconomic development.

What is the essence of this irredeemable obsession with increasing taxes yearly? Conventional economic thinking indicates that a country struggling with a huge public debt considers the following economic policies: spending cuts, tax increases, structural reforms, investing in infrastructure, and debt restructuring and forgiveness.

In the aftermath of the June 25, 2024, youth-led protests, the Ruto administration committed to auditing the public debt. Nothing tangible has been heard or seen since. Borrowing is on an upward trajectory. Tax increases are prevalent. The political class ensured that such increases are masked in a jargon-heavy and technical 2025/26 Budget Policy Statement (BPS) and 2025 Finance Bill.

Spending cuts are skewed. In the 2025/26 BPS, the security budget was increased by 17%, while the education budget was reduced by 18%. State House and state lodges are under constant construction and renovation. How urgent are these works? It is a problem to have a regime allocating over KES 11 billion for renovating and constructing buildings that do not add value to Kenyans. These are conduits for siphoning public resources. The Executive and Parliament waste so much money traveling within and out of the country to attend useless events.

The increase in the security budget is not surprising. This regime is paranoid and hellbent on creating a totalitarian state. The paranoia emanated from last year’s protests. The regime’s leadership never believed organic protests could break out. State-sanctioned abductions, enforced disappearances, extra-judicial killings, and threats are outcomes of a cowardly political leadership not ready to embrace accountability.

Kenya’s political establishment has another bad obsession: the need to control social media. On one hand, the political class dismisses social media government criticism. On the other hand, it craves controlling social media to limit free speech. Part of the increase in the security budget is the allocation of KES 150 million to the Directorate of Criminal Investigations (DCI) to purchase a system to track social media. This worries me a lot. It means more abductions, disappearances, and extra-judicial killings. But the more these issues persist, the more defiant the people become.

Ruto and his cabal are poor students of history. And the president is on record dismissing history. They should take time and study regime changes caused by popular uprisings. Burkina Faso in 2014, Sudan in 2019, Egypt in 2011, and Czechoslovakia in 1989, among others.

Commonsensically, you’d expect the National Intelligence Service (NIS) to consider such basic epochs. But the NIS is highly politicised under the Kenya Kwanza regime. The previous director generals of the NIS were more professional and polished. At the moment, this institution is a circus. This is the first time its director general has appeared in public forums multiple times, not to contribute anything meaningful to enhance nation-building, but to threaten the regime’s dissidents and call for the regulation of social media.

June 25, 2024, was a major political reset in Kenya’s history. It forced an unpopular president to reach out to a once-popular opposition leader and former Prime Minister Raila Odinga for political survival. This formally resulted in the formation of the so-called broad-based government.

William Ruto and his people do not get it; incorporating Odinga in the government is not equal to addressing the concerns of Kenyans. This mongrel government is a similar government formation Ruto vehemently criticised between 2018 and 2022, when Odinga and then-President Uhuru Kenyatta reached an MoU to form an inclusive government.

Such government arrangements are unconstitutional. With last year’s great political reset, we have demystified the cult of Odinga. The people no longer need him to call for protests. And he disgraced his pro-democracy credentials when he opted to support a rogue, incompetent regime. The majority of young people of my generation and the generations that come after will remember Odinga as a scheming, calculative opportunist, and not a champion for democracy.

Will the victims and their families get justice from the state following the attack on citizens on and after June 25, 2024? This is unlikely. But the arc of justice is long and swings slowly. However long it takes, justice will be served once this regime is voted out of power.

The writer, Sitati Wasilwa, speaks and writes on politics, governance, political economy, public policy, geopolitics, and armed conflict. Contact sitatiwasilwa.sw@gmail.com.

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Kenyan Leaders Owe Us Insightful Autobiographies

I wrote this article after reflecting on some of the Kenyan autobiographies I have read, some recently. Autobiographies, in the case of Kenya, are mostly written in a person’s sunset years. This is usually after retirement from a high-profile public life.

Overall, I have read a good number of autobiographies and biographies in my adult life. I found some compelling and insightful. Others turned out average, and disappointingly, some do not measure up for a second reading or recommendation to someone else to read.

The first book I read in January 2025 was Francis Ole Kaparo’s memoir, Calming the Storms. This book by Kenya’s second-longest serving Speaker of the National Assembly did not match my expectations. Kenyan libraries, publishers, and readers need to do some soul-searching and write brutally honest book reviews before books get to the shelves.

Kaparo stands out as one of Kenya’s best parliamentary speakers alongside his successor Kenneth Marende. The bar has since fallen so low in the post-Kaparo and post-Marende eras. Despite their respective memberships to their parent political parties KANU and ODM, Kaparo and Marende were largely impartial when presiding over parliamentary business.

This is unlike the bias demonstrated by their successors. I detest President William Ruto’s remarks labelling Justin Muturi as fairly incompetent during his tenure as the Attorney General. Is there any state officer who demonstrates incompetence than William Ruto? Anyway, Muturi was quite incompetent as a Speaker of the National Assembly. He was tyrannical and unprofessional. He subverted the principle of separation of powers as envisaged in the Constitution; Muturi permitted the Executive’s control over the Legislature.

Muturi’s successor and university mate, Moses Wetang’ula, has so far treated us to sycophantic and unconstitutional fits at the National Assembly. Wetang’ula first declared the minority Kenya Kwanza as the majority coalition party instead of the Azimio La Umoja following his election as Speaker. He still maintained this snobbish stance after the courts ruled against his decision! What’s even more unappealing constitutionally is the fact that Wetang’ula serves as the leader of the now-weak FORD Kenya party. You want to know how competent a Kenyan politician is? Do not look any further than the party he or she leads. FORD Kenya under Wetang’ula has fast regressed to a political outfit that cannot win any seats beyond the Bukusu-dominated counties of Bungoma and Trans-Nzoia.

The 2013-2017 Senate Speaker Ekwee Ethuro was a supremely uninspiring figure. His temperament was measured but there is little to write home about any heroic accolades attributed to his leadership in the Senate. His successor, Ken Lusaka, was a mark-timer who treated the speakership as a strategic retreat before seeking to recapture the Bungoma gubernatorial seat. Lusaka’s successor, Amason Kingi, is too superficial and this reflects in his leadership.

Kaparo’s autobiography is quite generic. It is more of a life history text or some extensive eulogy with the author not deeply dissecting historical events that readers would be intrigued to read. First, there are numerous grammatical and factual errors in the book. The author may not have done sufficient proofreading. The second and third parties he may have engaged for editorial and proofreading roles probably did so little to catch these errors. I’m not sure if they were motivated enough or were out to soothe Kaparo’s ego.

A current or former high-profile public figure or state officer deserves to go beyond the usual life history accounts when penning an autobiography. An autobiography is a grand opportunity to strongly project one’s philosophical beliefs and write successes and regrets memorably.

Regrettably, Kaparo’s explanations of critical historical junctures are relatively short and generic and do not offer any new information or perspective. Politicians or high-profile personalities who have been in political corridors should first think of bringing out unknown details or new perspectives when working on their autobiographies. They need to understand that Kenya’s history is patched up and this is a gap they should seek to fill.

Kaparo had a glorious opportunity to give readers and historians tangible stuff in chapters six, seven, eight, and ten. In chapter six, Kaparo reflects on his decision to contest for the speakership. He also uncovers the 1991 KANU conference in which former President Daniel Moi went against the wishes of the delegates to repeal Section 2A of the Constitution. Why would Kaparo squeeze the details of such important historical events into five to six pages?

I admire Oginga Odinga’s and Raila Odinga’s autobiographies save for the latter’s back-handed undemocratic political arrangements with ruling parties and coalitions. In Not Yet Uhuru, Oginga Odinga takes his time to thoroughly reflect and write on historical events, particularly the struggle for independence and the post-colonial era poor governance.

Not Yet Uhuru enriches Kenya’s historical discourse and literature. One reads it and certainly feels compelled to constantly reference it. Raila Odinga’s, The Flame of Freedom, is immaculate. Developments related to the post-Kenyatta era, the 1982 coup attempt, the fight for the Second Liberation, the multiparty era, the NARC years, the 2005 referendum, the post-election violence, and the Grand Coalition Government are comprehensively written.

Kaparo is either mean with words, economical with the truth, or he was perhaps ostracised by the deep state not to have much information on the historical events he attempts to write about. Chapter six would be rich and engrossing had Kaparo documented the unknown intrigues during his time as Speaker and the struggle leading to the re-introduction of multipartyism. Chapter seven is not worth reading. It is a complete waste of time. Chapter eight is also underwhelming. Fifteen pages are too few as so much happened between 2002 and 2007.

In chapter ten, Kaparo writes about the founding and his chairmanship of the URP party led by William Ruto from around 2012 to 2017. Kaparo’s claims on what led to the formation of URP are quite ridiculous. He purports that URP’s founders were motivated by the need to field candidates countrywide and present it as a national party. He goes ahead to chide parties such as ODM, Wiper, FORD Kenya, FORD Asili, FORD People, and the Democratic Party for being ethnic-based outfits. Kaparo selectively sidesteps the fact that URP was formed to bring together the interests of the so-called pastoralist and Nilotic ethnic groups. URP’s ethnic base was among the Kalenjins and ethnic communities in the North Eastern region.

What’s more, Kaparo grandiosely claims that only KANU had a national appeal. This demonstrates his lack of appreciation of historical facts. What contributed to KANU having a nationwide presence? The events of August 1, 1982, transformed Moi from a somewhat humble and despised politician to a ruthless, authoritarian, paranoid one. A consequence of Moi’s insecurities and paranoia was the declaration of Kenya as a single-party state de jure (by law). Kaparo overlooks this in his criticism of the aforementioned parties as tribal outfits. Facts are stubborn; ODM had a much more nationwide presence compared to URP.

There are several half-witted, misrepresented, and outrageous arguments written by Kaparo in his memoirs. His argument for settling on the name of the URP party, especially the word “republican” (URP stands for United Republican Party), took me aback. According to Kaparo, URP founders were driven by the ambition to defeat the formation of a federalist (majimbo) system of government in Kenya. Mark you this was around two years after the promulgation of the 2010 Constitution that institutionalised devolution and not federalism.

Kaparo goes ahead noting that the URP founders were worried about the introduction of socialism and communism in Kenya through the backdoor. This is extremely superficial and denotes a lack of intellectual wherewithal. Kaparo posits that the URP founders were uneasy about the Kenyan version of federalists merging American federalism with aspects of the former USSR’s governance, hence his unfounded claims on communism and socialism.

I squirmed while reading this bit and felt I had enough of such half-witted reflections from Kaparo. During the Cold War, there were attempts by the USSR just like the US to strengthen geostrategic interests in Kenya. But I think communism and socialism innuendos in Kenya are exaggerated. These were the outcomes of propaganda linked to the British and American governments and press after independence. One can easily conclude that URP was not in favour of the implementation of the 2010 Constitution. And you do not need to look far with its leader, William Ruto, having led campaigns against it prior to the 2010 referendum. So, we should not be surprised by the performance of the Ruto-led administration.

Leaders should give us compelling autobiographies that would significantly contribute to Kenya’s knowledge base. This is not limited to politicians. We have leaders in different sectors or areas; business, not-for-profits, security and defence, sports, and education among others.

I have had enough of reading sub-par books from personalities widely exposed in different sectors in Kenya. Kaparo’s Calming the Storms reminds me of Lee Njiru’s President’s Pressman. Lots of grammatical errors and superficial documentation of historical events. Njiru would rather not have written his memoirs.

And I will not fall short of expressing my displeasure against public figures who have retired, about to retire, or died without writing autobiographies. Mwai Kibaki, Kijana Wamalwa, George Saitoti, and other high-profile politicians and non-political personalities who died without penning autobiographies failed Kenya. Autobiographies should not be post-retirement adventures. I hope to soon read some good ones from individuals I consider influential in my life. But they are showing little to no effort!

Sitati Wasilwa is a geopolitical and governance analyst.

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A Post-Ruto Kenya is Taking Shape, and Quite Fast!

Kenya under President William Ruto is a blueprint of how leaders fail and fail fast. Transformational leadership is not a cup of tea for any Tom, Dick, or Harry, nor is it for any Mary, Juliet, or Angela. Ruto has chosen to literally fail. His two-year old administration has demystified the genius and politically smart tags associated with him for a long time.

Ruto severally coveted and referenced Kibakinomics during the election campaigns and shortly after taking office. The late President Mwai Kibaki attempted to transform Kenya, but he largely failed. Corruption, tribalism, and vote rigging flourished under his watch. And the fact that a significant number of Kenyans identify Kibaki with some semblance of transformation indicates our low leadership standards as a country. Anyway, Ruto’s reference to Kibakinomics was motivated by his desire to revamp the Kenyan economy in light of the abysmal trajectory engineered by the UhuRuto administration.

Well, the UhuRuto administration was incompetent in economic management. This was manifested by unnecessary pile ups of public debt, of which a significant portion went into the wrong hands. Look at the Eurobond fiasco; the UhuRuto administration could not account for the 2014 USD 2.8 billion Eurobond. Switch lanes and consider the borrowing spree of the UhuRuto administration. Public debt spiraled upwards by around 353% from KES 1.89 trillion in 2013 to KES 8.56 trillion in 2022. The COVID-19 pandemic worsened the economic situation. Approximately 1.72 million workers lost their jobs between April and June 2020. Another 740,000 Kenyans lost their jobs in 2021.

This was a perfect moment for the UhuRuto administration to turn to the IMF and the World Bank to resuscitate the economy. Obviously, the Bretton Woods institutions never lend money without conditions. Kenya has since remained hooked to the IMF, with the latter prescribing unrealistic and theoretical economic policies to boost the economy post-COVID and under the Ruto administration.

Leaders first embark on the route to failure by deliberately not structuring a competent team to deliver their vision. A basic rule in organisational transformation is crafting a highly competent team. Getting the right people for the right job simplifies issues, whether in a bureaucratic setup or lean teams. Ruto has failed on this. Recall his first Cabinet; hard to point out any man or woman with an unmatched work ethic and elite professionalism in it. His second Cabinet is still subpar. People in pursuit of power and success often refer to the Machiavellian power book, but one thing they rarely pay attention to or ignore is the centrality of a competent team. According to Machiavelli, a leader’s intelligence is estimated by the people he surrounds himself with. Therefore, we can use this rulebook to judge and rank Ruto’s merit as a leader.

Succeeding as a leader is relatively easy if you listen to people. Ruto excels at this during elections. He listened to his presidential campaign think-tank when running for office in 2022. He equally listened to his allies and the on-ground voices when campaigning. It is baffling when he fails to pay attention to what people have said in the course of his presidency. Perhaps he believes having won the presidency at the first attempt makes him a genius. Wrong! He is not. He only capitalised on Raila Odinga’s disorganisation and complacency. Ruto has a bloated team of advisers who are perfect courtiers and typical jesters. Just a bunch of hangers-on.

On a few occasions, Kenya Kwanza-affiliated parliamentarians warned Ruto of growing hostility against his leadership due to the high cost of living. Such warnings dominated a Kenya Kwanza parliamentary group meeting in November 2023. The MPs informed him of the public’s displeasure with the withdrawal of fuel subsidies, and retrogressive taxation, among other unwelcome socioeconomic policies. Similar warnings were repeated at another meeting in February this year. Ruto chose to dismiss them.

Public heckling against Ruto and other Kenya Kwanza leaders gained momentum at the end of 2023 and the better part of this year before the pro-good governance mass protests. Ruto appeared surprised by the demonstrations, which, if he was keen enough and not blinded by hubris, would have prevented them. And even in the aftermath of the protests, he embraced time-wasting ventures instead of attempting to turn around his failures.

The public’s rejection of the IMF-initiated, controversial, punitive, and unpopular 2024 Finance Bill was a vote of no confidence against the Kenya Kwanza administration. His coalition partner and Prime Cabinet Secretary Musalia Mudavadi is on record having stated that the bill’s withdrawal would be a vote of no confidence against the government.

I am yet to see a government that works so hard to become unpopular. Kenya Kwanza offers a good template for this. The scheme to impeach Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua is another clear vote of no confidence against Ruto’s presidency. The public participation exercises showed disaffection against the most incompetent government in Kenya since independence…no, since the colonial era. The writing is on the wall; Ruto will be a one-term president.

So, what awaits a post-Ruto Kenya? This may sound premature than the process leading to this eventuality. The unity of purpose of like-minded forces is imperative. The majority is clearly anti-Ruto, and this should now transition from mobilisation to organisation. Mass and voluntary civic education should be prioritised by like-minded entities. Ideologically disciplined parties and coalitions should be established. These need to reflect a break from Kenya’s unprogressive political party culture, where parties are personality-based and devoid of institutionalism. Public scrutiny and pressure should be sustained against the political establishment, including the Kenya Kwanza leadership. Any proposed laws or amendments or policies must be subject to proper public participation. We are past the years of Odinga, Kalonzo, and the long-time political establishment. We need a new crop of devoted, fresh-thinking political leaders to take Kenya to the next level.

A post-Ruto Kenya should be a society that absolutely adheres to the Constitution. Chapter Six on Leadership and Integrity must be enforced. Fighting against and stamping out corruption has to be the main objective of the government and the public in a post-Ruto Kenya. It must be a republic where there are no shady commercial deals and all agreements involving development projects must be disclosed to the public. Details of the public debt and all procured loans must be publicised in a post-Ruto Kenya. Independence of the arms of government must be respected in a post-Ruto Kenya. A post-Ruto Kenya should pursue economic independence and stop the parasitic relationship with the IMF and other creditors. Public education and healthcare must be free in a post-Ruto Kenya. The youth must be at the centre of decision-making in a post-Ruto Kenya. The political leadership must work for the people in a post-Ruto Kenya.

Sitati Wasilwa writes and speaks on geopolitics and governance.

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Arc of Authoritarianism Strengthening in East Africa

The debate on the centrality of democracy in promoting socioeconomic development is a chicken-and-egg conundrum. Most countries pursued development without embracing democratic institutions. Some of these countries later turned to establishing and strengthening their democratic institutions primarily after making significant development strides. Ha-Joon Chang meticulously demonstrates the nexus between democracy and economic development in his book, Kicking Away the Ladder.

Chang certifies two inescapable truths. First, the so-called developed countries were not democratic while developing. Second, the narrative of democracy as a pre-condition for economic development has been propagated by Western countries and multilateral institutions. It is a narrative that fits the frame of their global geostrategic interests.

I have made it a habit in my policy and political discourses to be guided by the prevailing context. Democracy is not key to economic development. However, this does not imply that authoritarianism is the absolute pathway to realising development. There is always the temptation to justify this by immortalising benevolent dictatorship. But it is unfair to validate benevolent dictatorship if at all a country has collectively approved Western-styled democratic institutions and practices. Obviously, this leads to another critical debate on whether Western democracy suits Africa and other non-Western countries.

We are currently accustomed to the absoluteness and cleavages of Western democracy. I mean, we may not have a better alternative at the moment. Though countries such as Botswana have proven that what could be thought of as Western democracy may as well have been practiced in African societies in the pre-colonial era. Botswana’s kgotla system demonstrably justifies this.

All East African countries have democratic or quasi-democratic institutions. The setup of these institutions is heavily Westernised. However, the democratic space in the region has been shrinking in recent years, particularly in Kenya and Tanzania. No surprises for Uganda and Rwanda as authoritarian tendencies remain as firm as they have always been under the long-term presidencies of Yoweri Museveni and Paul Kagame, respectively. There is not so much to anticipate in terms of democratic growth and development in these two countries.

Tanzania’s President Samia Suluhu has proven to be a good student of his predecessor John Magufuli. President Suluhu has increasingly become authoritarian over the last year. Her agenda of Reconciliation, Resilience, Reform, and Rebuild (4Rs) is pretty much a package of hot air. Police brutality is a norm under her administration. Harassment and arbitrary arrests of opposition leaders and other political dissidents are rife under her watch. Political-related abductions are part of her administration’s modus operandi.

President Suluhu has subtly proven to be incompetent and intolerant in the game of power just like Magufuli. Both seem to have a very wrong perspective of attempting to achieve development by oppressing their opponents. But these gimmicks are strategically aimed at consolidating power. In Suluhu’s case, she has illustrated her erratic power management skills by swiftly appointing and quickly dismissing high profile personalities.

In July 2024, she hastily revoked the appointment of senior executives in state corporations in the communications sector. In the same month, she fired two ministers; January Makamba (Foreign Minister) and Nape Nnauye (Information and ICT). Makamba served as Foreign Minister for 11 months and was Suluhu’s third appointee in the ministry since taking over from Magufuli. And there have been rafts of Cabinet reshuffles in her three-year rule. The Tanzania Intelligence and Security Services (TISS) has had three Director Generals since January 2023; quite an erratic turnover.

Kenya is an obvious basket case of fast-receding democratic gains in two years under the Kenya Kwanza coalition. The nightmarish memories of KANU and Daniel Arap Moi’s incompetent and authoritarian rule are back. Excessive use of police force, extrajudicial killings, abductions, torture, detention without trial, and fabricated charges are currently common. It takes a leader’s megalomaniac obsession to employ such inhumane tactics against the backdrop of persisting calls for better governance.

The highly publicized yet hollow Kenya Kwanza coalition manifesto – The Plan – has proven to be what the progressives initially thought of it. A flowery piece of excessively cheap jewelry. And this is an outcome of leadership without a philosophy. It is impossible to economically transform a country by retorting unphilosophical slogans coined around hustlers and wheelbarrows.

The fight against corruption is a lost cause under the Kenya Kwanza regime. The hastened withdrawal of high-profile corruption cases and closure of files by the Director of Public Prosecutions in the last two years affirms this. Consider the wealth accumulation of Kenya Kwanza-affiliated politicians and cronies. The recent vetting of Cabinet Secretary nominees is a microcosm of questionable wealth accumulation under this administration.

The Suluhu and Ruto administrations have never resisted the temptations of accusing external forces when questioned about their anti-democratic poses. Recently, President Suluhu criticised Western nations for calling her out on muzzling political dissidents. This does not mean that the West is spotless with regard to supporting authoritarian regimes. In Kenya, the West has been cagey in its condemnation of the brutality meted out to innocent young people in the wake of the pro-reform protests.

President Ruto and his team have illustrated they are typically out of touch with reality, shifting blame on the imagined sponsors of the youth-led protests. The Ford Foundation, Russia, Rigathi Gachagua, and Uhuru Kenyatta were blamed. So far, no evidence links any of these entities to the demonstrations. The creation of imagined enemies is an outcome of political leaderships that detest accountability.

Consolidation of political power can occur without endangering the fundamental rights and freedoms of opponents. This requires the mastery of the emotional and intellectual pathways of the game of power. Anything short of this denotes incompetence.

Democracy is certainly not a prerequisite for economic development. But it shields the people from the ill motives of demagogues and megalomaniacs. A Changian view may detest democracy as a vanguard for solid development. However, authoritarianism sets ideal conditions for extractive economic and political institutions. As solidly demonstrated by Daron Acemoglu and James Robinson in the book, Why Nations Fail, extractive institutions beget poor economic development. No coincidence that poverty rates in East Africa are barely decreasing almost six decades after independence.

Sitati Wasilwa writes and speaks on geopolitics and governance.  

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Kenya’s ‘Gen Z’ Movement is Not Yet Done!

Politics largely gravitates around interests. The history of politics is replete with references to why enmity in politics is illusionary. Kenya is a perfect case study of politics lacking morality, conscience, dignity, and high standards. No wonder Kenya is struggling with the same issues it was battling at independence; disease, poverty, and ignorance. Who is to blame? First, the political leadership has proven to be greedy putting first self-interests at the expense of the common good. Kenya is one of the countries where politics is an avenue to riches. Second, a citizenry is often threatened by fear-mongering and primitive tribal-based politics.

Anyway, here we are. A cornered president forced to embrace his one-time ally and leader during the formative years of the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) party. But why did President William Ruto work with former Prime Minister Raila Odinga in the aftermath of pro-governance protests? Ruto was desperate, so desperate to cling to power. Wasn’t it intriguing to see the globe-trotting president grounded within the Kenyan borders? So far, Ruto has only made one foreign trip in the last two months! 

It is contentious who approached the other between Ruto and Odinga. I guess Ruto made the first move. An important fact to note is that Odinga’s usurping of the youth-led revolutionary moment to consolidate his riches and those of his henchmen was not a surprise. Odinga had earlier cut a deal with Ruto to contest for the chairperson’s position of the African Union Commission (AUC). The award of key ministries to ODM leaders justifies that Odinga may have demanded these after being approached by Ruto to help him consolidate his power. 

Odinga’s Pro-Democracy Credentials and Back-end Deals with Presidents

Odinga’s political union with Ruto has watered down his pro-democracy credentials. These are the sunset years and Odinga understands that he stands no chance of ever being Kenya’s president. He is after cementing the legacy of his four-decade political career by attempting to clinch the coveted AUC chairperson’s post. Odinga has in the past forged political unions with presidents, but the recent one with Ruto is simply deceitful and disgusting. On the streets, on social media…”Odinga took advantage of the blood shed by the youth.” Elitist, progressive-minded, and youthful Odinga’s supporters have certainly withdrawn their support for the veteran politician. 

How does Odinga benefit from these political unions, unholy alliances for that matter, with presidents? Politics is dictated by interests, and as stated for centuries, there are no permanent friends and enemies in politics. Kenyans easily forget that Odinga is a billionaire and one of the wealthiest people in Kenya. We never really care that much to question Odinga’s acquisition of wealth. He is a hard worker, but his political stature and networks earned him these riches. It is documented in several sources that Odinga benefited from the union with Daniel Moi after the 1997 elections by acquiring the controversial molasses plant in Kisumu. Odinga, however, denies this in his autobiography, The Flame of Freedom. 

Let’s crack this further. Moi appointed Odinga as Minister for Energy post-1997 elections. Guess who has interests and investments in the gas industry? Odinga’s East Africa Spectre, a leading manufacturer of liquified petroleum gas cylinders, serves domestic and international markets. The son of Kenya’s first vice president Oginga Odinga insists in his autobiography that his union with Moi was a political strategy to make a second stab at the presidency in 2002. 

Most people claim the formation of the Grand Coalition Government after the 2007/2008 post-election violence was Odinga’s political union with Mwai Kibaki. I strongly differ. Kibaki rigged the 2007 elections which Odinga won. I will excuse Odinga as this was a forced political marriage with Kibaki. This is one of my justifications why Kibaki’s presidency is overrated. 

The March 2018 ‘handshake’ between Odinga and President Uhuru Kenyatta was a strategic blunder for Odinga’s presidential ambitions. First, some of his supporters believed he had betrayed them as several protesters lost their lives in anti-government demonstrations. Second, Odinga embraced Uhuru, a president who seemed not to care about consolidating his power. Anyway, Ruto’s presidency is an outcome of Odinga’s political short-sightedness. 

There are a few critical questions at this point. Has Odinga ever intended to win the presidential elections? Has he been running for the elections not to win but to protect his interests? Is Odinga’s pro-democracy legacy overrated? While Odinga’s pragmatic approach to winning power is somehow understandable, his taking advantage of the death of youth due to the use of excessive force by an incompetent regime dilutes his pro-democracy credentials. 

Ruto’s Project-Launching Spree: ‘Gen Z’ Are Winners

One of Ruto’s economic advisors who swims in bourgeoisie intellectualism and lives in an ivory tower recently claimed that ‘Gen Z’ challenged Ruto to a political contest. David Ndii, probably the most arrogant human south of the Sahara, claimed Ruto has pulled the rug under the Kenyan youth and is on the ground consolidating his support. The Ruto hater turned romanticist of the amorphous, caricatured bottom-up economic model in his usual dismissive tone chided the ‘Gen Z’ for being busy trolling the incompetent administration on social media instead of focusing on 2027. Well, Ndii intentionally forgets his role as troller-in-chief having dismissed the mobilisation on social media prior to the commencement of the protests on June 18 and even more notably on June 25. In June, Ndii sensationally labeled the youth on social media calling for reforms as ‘digital wankers’ who are cowardly to take to the streets. 

Anyway, he is a typical example of a court jester who entertains the king despite an impending political disaster. The fact that President Ruto has traversed villages launching menial projects demonstrates the power of the people. It is funny that Ruto is consolidating his power – anyway, politics is about optics and PR – but of course by mobilising artificial crowds. Optics, PR, and propaganda are effective when running election campaigns; running a government and improving the lives of the people demands competence and meritocracy. On this, Ruto has failed. 

In 2021, I purchased and read a book – Why Do So Many Incompetent Men Become Leaders? The author deconstructs mediocre leaders and sub-par leadership. For instance, the author points out that we have great tolerance for people who are not as talented as they think. He goes on to state: “What it takes to get the job is not just different from, but also sometimes the reverse of, what it takes to do the job.” These are the sub-par metrics demonstrated by Ruto’s leadership. Ruto seems not to believe that Kenyans can protest against his leadership and demand his resignation. He overrates his importance. He demeans the intelligence of Kenyans. 

The project-launching spree will do little to change the course of a popular movement. A movement that is only concerned with high-quality governance and not the creation of wabenzis – mannerless, greedy, grandiose, arrogant politicians competing on who vomits quicker and heavily on Kenyans’ heads. Do not confuse a strategic retreat with a loss or surrender. The launching of dead and menial projects is akin to running on quicksand. And even before the project-launching rendezvous, the unarmed, peaceful ‘Gen Zs’ won, given the cowardly use of excessive force by the security apparatus against them. 

Aluta Continua! Of, For, and By the People

Earlier, I noted that President Ruto overrates or overestimates his capabilities, competence, and popularity – perhaps not as talented as he thinks. The popular, youth-led movement has not been politically nutmegged by the unholy political alliance of Willian Ruto and Raila Odinga. Here are the reasons why the ‘Gen Z’ movement is not yet done.

Economically, Kenya is far from creating decent, meaningful jobs. The Kenyan economy is mounted on weak fundamentals. Our economy can only continue creating conditions for informal, unsustainable jobs meaning that unemployment, underemployment, and poverty will thrive. These are issues that need concrete, long-term plans, and of course, killing corruption. Where do you expect these hungry, unemployed mobs to go? Exported to work as casuals in the Middle East? Drive boda bodas? Be mama mbogas? Reincarnate themselves as fool-proof hustlers? A hungry man is an angry man. 

A huge debt burden, if still poorly managed, will keep the flames of the revolution lit. Major weaknesses that Ruto’s advisors are not burning the midnight oil to sweet-talk him to get over it is his know-it-all attitude, detest for history, and probably his pococurante nature of not reading widely and deeply. Tax hikes will never propel developing, third-world economies to prosperity. A poorly managed, ballooned public debt is a harbinger for additional tax hikes commandeered by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the Ruto-led administration. But we need to be honest; tax increases are not the only ways to manage public debt. Ruto should ruthlessly kill corruption and renegotiate a significant number of existing debts. Otherwise, further tax hikes mean more poverty and you can guess the consequences. 

Related to the above, Ruto should mercilessly cut unnecessary spending. He has poorly performed on this. It seems the floodgates to quick riches and opulence were opened to his cronies as soon as he put down the sword and the constitution. One of Ruto’s pathways to failure is his preference for political expediency at the expense of competence and good results. I wonder about the extent of political debts he owes given his excessively large team of advisors and numerous hangers-on. Their time to eat perhaps! A consequence of untamed spending coupled with a huge debt burden is a higher incidence of poverty, and you expect the ‘Gen Zs’ to surrender…It is naive to think as such. 

Perhaps the final reason; the ‘Gen Zs’ are not cowardly, or they are rather more exposed and woke than their parents. And why do we have to be threatened when we express our dissatisfaction with poor governance? A culture we need to kill in Kenya and Africa is obeying those in power. Such a cowardly, embarrassing piece of advice. Aren’t we taxpayers? Why would a politician think the people are right and matter a great deal during elections, and the same people are perceived as enemies when demanding better leadership? Aluta continua…

The writer, Sitati Wasilwa, is an analyst of geopolitics and governance. His interests include armed conflict, foreign policy, power politics, political economy, leadership, and strategy.

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Kenyan Youth are Protesting Punitive Taxation. How Did We Get Here?

June 18 and 20 will be historically remembered as days when the Kenyan youth dared to rise against an administration perceived as economically oppressive. The protests have been structurally different from previous anti-government demonstrations, except for the use of excessive force by police officers. Never mind that the Kenyan police have a poor human rights history. This is an institution in dire need of reforms, given its systemic decay and corruption stretching over 60 years!

So far, no political party or notable political figure has been involved in organising or leading the protests. For long, Kenya has been accustomed to Raila Odinga leading similar protests. The personality of the protesters is also a stark contrast from the hired ruffians we are used to in previous anti-government protests. The organisation and mobilisation have been a break from the past. Social media platforms, especially X (formerly Twitter) and TikTok, have been instrumental in mobilising.

What’s the issue?

At the centre of the protests are controversial tax proposals. A significant number of Kenyan youth and Kenyans in general perceive the Finance Bill 2024 as economically oppressive. On June 18, shortly after the protests broke out, the ruling coalition announced that unpopular tax proposals had been dropped. These are 16% VAT on bread, VAT on financial services and forex transactions, 2.5% motor vehicle tax, excise duty on vegetable oil, and VAT on sugar transportation. The proposed eco levy on locally manufactured sanitary towels, diapers, motorcycles, tyres, computers, and phones was also dropped. No income tax will be levied on the Social Health Insurance and the Housing Tax.

The Kenya Kwanza administration believed that getting rid of the aforementioned taxes after public pressure would dissipate sentiments against the 2024 Finance Bill. Kenyans protesting against the controversial Bill are demanding its total rejection and do not want any amendments. This indicates other underlying grievances that the ruling coalition has chosen to ignore. And this is the problem when you have a president who believes he is larger than life, brilliant, and swims in illusions of grandeur.

Underlying grievances

The William Ruto-led administration has been less effective in addressing the rising cost of living. Ruto took office when the economy was at a crossroads with high public debt and slow economic recovery in the aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic. His administration opted to ravenously increase taxes as a means to raise revenue to settle part of the public debt. This never sat well with a good number of Kenyans who are battling poverty and reduced household budgets. Since September 2022, conversations in the streets, villages, and thoroughfares of major urban centres have centred around nicknaming President Ruto as Zacchaeus the Tax Collector.

There is seething anger, especially among schooled Kenyans, about the role of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in the country’s economic management. The Ruto-led administration’s foreign policy leans heavily towards the West. The IMF is on record directing the Ruto administration to fast-track taxation measures to increase revenue. There is a big disconnect between the IMF’s demands and the on-ground reality. Making a decent living as a Kenyan is currently difficult.

This is not the first time that the IMF has played an active role in Kenya’s economic management by pushing for structural adjustment policies (SAPs) as a means of economic recovery. In the 1990s, the IMF pushed for similar SAPs that led to cuts in spending on healthcare, education, and physical infrastructure. These unrealistic policies also led to an increase in unemployment,, with a significant number of Kenyans retrenched from the public sector. The second-hand industry well-known locally as mitumba flourished courtesy of the SAPs. The policies simply killed the textile industry. The Ruto administration has bent backward the arc of history. Presently, there are constraints in financing public education, public healthcare, and other critical sectors.

Some of the legislators and ministers in the current government are not shy of displaying opulent lifestyles. Convincingly, these are proceeds from looted public resources. The youthful protesters are disgusted with this shameless exhibition of wealth by politicians whose salaries do not match their expensive watches, belts, clothes, cars, and houses, among other material stuff.

Arrogant political leadership

The Kenya Kwanza politicians, including the president, are arrogant and corrupted with power. Since taking over just over 20 months ago, Kenyans who question the ruling coalition for accountability are lectured on how President Ruto is brilliant enough to turn around the economy and offer decisive political leadership. He simply lacks the fundamentals to lead us towards prosperity of any kind. It is the Kenya Kwanza administration that has branded Kenya the “Singapore of Africa.” Clearly, the bottom-of-the-barrel stuff. Nothing done by this administration comes close to Singapore, a country whose GDP was almost at par with Kenya’s in the early 1960s.

Singapore’s governance is anchored on meritocracy, pragmatism, and honesty. The Ruto-led administration has demonstrated that any Tom, Dick, or Harry can be appointed to senior government positions without merit as long as they are sycophants. The Cabinet tells it all! The punitive taxes implemented and proposed indicate the lack of pragmatism to the on-ground reality. It is impractical to overtax people who are still battling the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic and other systemic economic issues. Corruption defines the values or lack thereof of the Kenya Kwanza administration. This is far off from honesty.

Governing by lying is a leisurely walk on quicksand. You can win elections by lying but the same hardly works when running government. Most youthful Kenyans are simply fed up with regurgitated lies and endless promises. President Ruto has been heckled several times in public rallies over the last year. Embarrassingly, high-ranking Kenya Kwanza coalition politicians are arrogantly claiming that they are happy to have shifted the conversation from personality cults to economic issues. This is a howler.

History of resistance

Kenyans may not be the ideal individuals to publicly demonstrate against the government. However, Kenyans have historically resisted oppression and advocated for reforms. The fight for independence is a critical juncture that highlights the public’s pushback against oppression. Jomo Kenyatta may have been lucky to escape public outrage and fight for reforms even with the assassinations of the flamboyant Tom Mboya and the courageous J. M. Kariuki as well as the eminent Pio Gama Pinto. However, the less-spoken coup attempts of 1965 and 1971 highlight the dissatisfaction with the status quo.

Arap Moi, the passing cloud turned autocrat, endured a fair share of resistance in his 24-year presidency. First, the 1982 coup attempt which he was lucky to have his presidency saved. Second, the fight for the reintroduction of the multiparty political system in the early 1990s. Moi conceded to public pressure. Finally, Moi and his party KANU were sent packing in the December 2022 elections. It was always unimaginable that Moi and KANU would be dethroned from power. Voters massively voted for the opposition NARC coalition and its candidate Mwai Kibaki to teach Moi a lesson.

Kibaki squandered the best opportunity to change Kenya forever after two years in power. However, the 2005 constitutional referendum and the violent protests in the aftermath of the 2007 elections demonstrated the majority’s dissatisfaction with his leadership albeit robust economic growth. Uhuru Kenyatta’s regime oversaw punitive laws such as the amendment of the electoral laws. Uhuru was lucky to escape public resistance in his second term following the infamous March 18, 2018, handshake with Raila Odinga.

What does the future hold?

The protests are unlikely to stop. They will likely intensify as the Finance Bill 2024 awaits to go through the remaining legislative stages. The ruling coalition has the numbers to punitively pass the Bill. But these historical protests will change Kenya’s political history going forward.

President Ruto will be lucky to get reelected in 2027. Ruto won the presidential elections with a margin of around 200,000 votes in an election in which approximately eight million voters did not vote. The majority of those who did not vote were youthful voters. The youth are going to register and vote en masse come 2027. No way Ruto and his henchmen will survive the tsunami.

There is strength in numbers. I foresee a scenario where the youth will register their parties and field their candidates. Nothing definitely stops them. Around 80% of Kenya’s population is under 35 years. The median age of the Kenyan population is 19 years. I do not see any way out for the Ruto-led administration to change the economic fortunes of the youth in the remaining three years of his presidency. The chickens are fast coming home to roost. It is not yet uhuru for us!

Sitati Wasilwa is a geopolitical and governance analyst. This article is a personal opinion and has no relation to his institutional affiliations.

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Book Review: Moi’s Kleptocracy and Its Spillovers

In the book, Moi’s Kleptocracy and Its Spillovers, the author, Duncan Ndegwa attempts to relate Kenya’s social, political and economic challenges to Moi’s presidency. Ndegwa was the first post-independence Secretary to the Cabinet and Head of the Public Service. He also served as Governor of the Central Bank of Kenya from 1967 to 1982.

Ndegwa argues, though unconvincingly in most cases, that Moi is squarely to blame for his kleptocratic tendencies and the after-effects two decades later.

Primarily, the book sounds more of an attempt by the author to settle scores with former president Moi, and is analytically shallow and jumbled up to measure up to its title. Perhaps much thought and effort were not put into writing it.

It is illogical to defend Moi’s presidency, but it’s irrational not to strongly condemn graft engineered by Jomo Kenyatta and Mwai Kibaki. Ndegwa notes that Moi eroded all the advances made during Kenyatta’s presidency. He goes ahead to state how Moi resorted to divide-and-rule tactics to impoverish Kenyans.

In a way, Ndegwa tries to avoid the weight of history; Moi simply echoed Kenyatta’s tune of divide-and-rule! Isolating the Kenyatta presidency from Moi’s is historical backhandedness.

The author comes close to appreciating the role of Kenyatta’s era in laying the foundation for graft in Moi’s regime. First, he points out the recommendation of the Ndegwa Commission (chaired by the author) in aiding corruption – civil servants were allowed to engage in business even with the government as a measure to enable them to earn extra income thereby hindering corruption. This remains one of the biggest historical blunders in Kenya.

Second, Ndegwa points out the sentiments of Kenyatta to police officers who were on a go-slow a year or so before the valueless commission was formed; “President Kenyatta advised them to use the power of their crown to make ends meet…the police took Kenyatta’s advice to use their crown to extort bribes from lawbreakers…”. However, he does not call out any of these historical missteps. Anyway, he unapologetically profiles Kenyatta as “a giant of destiny.”

One thing Ndegwa somehow gets right is the power politics and the geopolitical landscape during the Cold War in light of the support of Moi’s regime by the so-called Western democratic states. He notes that the financial resources advanced to the Moi regime were used to facilitate corruption in Kenya.

In addition, Ndegwa points out some of the failed projects initiated by Moi such as the Nyayo Tea Zones, the Nyayo milk project, the Nyayo Bus Corporation and the Nyayo Pioneer Car Project. He hilariously describes the launch of the car project noting that “Once the ceremony ended it was found that the fuel pipe of the car was not connected to the pump neither was the distributor cable in place.”

However, he cantankerously mocks the products of Moi’s initiated 8-4-4 education system claiming that it “has produced hundreds of thousands of witless graduates who find no fault in destroying institutional property.”

It could be true that 8-4-4 was not the best education system compared with its predecessor the 7-4-2-3 system. But it is ingenuine for Ndegwa to unashamedly brand the witless nature of its products. The challenges of the 8-4-4 system should be holistically considered. In essence, the structural adjustment policies (SAPs) by the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank punctured the 8-4-4 system. The SAPs reduced spending on the social sector in favour of the much acclaimed economically productive sectors.

Ndegwa intentionally bypasses the furthering of corruption and other governance challenges under the Kibaki administration. He adopts the role of a fence sitter and goes to the extent of profiling the failures of Kibaki as spillovers from the Moi era which is somehow right. But Kibaki’s major failures include perpetuating systemic corruption and ethnic chauvinism which fanned the flames of the post-election violence (PEV).

Amid other half-truths on Kibaki’s political sainthood, the author claims that Western states were behind the International Criminal Court (ICC) cases in which Uhuru Kenyatta and William Ruto as well as other four people were accused of facilitating the PEV. Ndegwa, intentionally or otherwise, fails to appreciate the fact that the ICC cases only materialised after joint efforts by Kibaki and Raila Odinga to champion the formation of a local tribunal collapsed on the floor of Parliament. In fact, Uhuru and Ruto were vocal on their preference for the ICC route.

A keen reader may easily lose interest in the book with Ndegwa’s lame description of Uhuru in the lead up to the 2013 elections as follows: “His political pedigree, his personal qualities and his journey (he was 52 in October 2013), all mark him as the youngest, the best and the brightest.” I wish these attributes would be positively correlated with competence and governmental performance. Uhuru and Ruto have so far performed dismally.

It is unclear what Ndegwa drives at by claiming that Kikuyus, especially of his generation, are great admirers of the ancient Jews and of the Old Testament. His analogy of Jewish entrepreneurial success with that of the Agikuyu exceptionalism is a factual blunder and borders on ethnic chauvinism.

Spuriously, the author castigates devolution insinuating it would increase marginalisation and thus the level of poverty. His argument is premised on the majimbo system of governance at the dawn of independence. Ndegwa incoherently argues against devolution without looking at the bigger picture of its benefits. Neither does he take into account the regional economic imbalances and ethnic dynamism of Kenya. Appreciating the regional and ethnic marginalisation advanced by the colonial and successive post-colonial governments would have prompted Ndegwa to embrace devolution.

Overall, the book is thin on historical facts given its weighty title. One would have expected it to portray well-defined contours of the plunder under Moi’s presidency and its generational effects. It passes as a rushed text that may not stand the test of time.

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Reviving African Indigenous Political Systems for A New Dawn of Development

The next paragraph is the abstract of an essay that I wrote sometime in 2021 titled “Reviving African Indigenous Political Systems for A New Dawn of Development“. A copy of the essay can be downloaded here: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1V50464cFAbDny0kYq18-PZ7gGuCNTMmL/view?usp=sharing

“Africa has a chequred social, economic and political history. This essay examines the essence of reviving the so-called indigenous political systems, a move that could help create a new dawn of development in Africa. The essay discusses how historical events such as slavery, colonialism and neo-colonialism shaped the African political systems. It also highlights the need to revive the African political systems that will enhance the eroded dignity of the African people in addition to having such governance systems based on a unique value-driven approach based on the Ubuntu philosophy. Botswana’s Kgotla system is examined and affirmed as an example of a successful African governance system. The establishment of Ubuntu Institutes is primed as the fundamental step in reviving African indigenous political systems to realise a new dawn of development.“

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